Previsões / Futebol / France. Ligue 1 / Toulouse vs Monaco

Toulouse vs Monaco Previsão, Odds e Dicas de Apostas com IA

Apr 26, 2026 - 15:00
1.44
1.44
36% 28% 36%
Betting decision (model & EV)
1X2 ✔ Toulouse (Value)
Match: 36.0% Toulouse; implied 21.3%; EV 69.5%
Primary (weak / speculative): Toulouse — Value (Speculative) · EV 69.5% · Model 36.0%
Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).
High model EV on this line, but a low model hit-rate — treat as a speculative, not a “banker”.
Alternative (more stable for typical stakes): Abaixo de 2.5 · EV 12.8% · 45.1% model
Higher model probability on this line than the weak primary — often a better default for “standard” bet sizing.
Lower EV than primary, but with higher model probability (more “stable” when shown).
Longshot — High risk value Empate (EV 22.7%) ; Model 27.9%
High variance — not for standard staking plan sizing.
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
Mais / Menos de 2.5
Acima de 2.5 54.9%
Abaixo de 2.5 45.1%
Escolha da IA: Abaixo de 2.5
Ambas as Equipes Marcam
Sim 59.7%
Não 40.3%
No value — BTTS is efficiently priced at the best available odds (no side clears the +EV threshold).
Principais Previsões de Placar Exato
1-1 11.6%
1-2 8.4%
2-1 8.4%
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Confiança: 6.5 / 9
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -9.42% · EV Under 12.75% (11 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -3.29% · EV No -3.28%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# EQUIPE PJ W D L PTS
1 Paris Saint Germain 30 22 3 5 69
2 Lens 30 20 3 7 63
3 Lyon 31 17 6 8 57
4 Lille 30 16 6 8 54
5 Rennes 30 15 8 7 53
6 Marseille 30 16 4 10 52
7 Monaco 31 15 6 10 51
8 Strasbourg 29 12 7 10 43
9 Lorient 30 10 11 9 41
10 Toulouse 31 10 8 13 38
11 Stade Brestois 29 30 10 8 12 38
12 Paris FC 30 9 11 10 38
13 Angers 31 9 7 15 34
14 Le Havre 30 6 12 12 30
15 Nice 30 7 8 15 29
16 Auxerre 31 5 10 16 25
17 Nantes 30 4 8 18 20
18 Metz 30 3 6 21 15
# EQUIPE PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 Paris Saint Germain 30 68 25 +43 69
2 Lens 30 60 32 +28 63
3 Marseille 30 58 40 +18 52
4 Monaco 31 54 47 +7 51
5 Rennes 30 52 41 +11 53
6 Lille 30 49 34 +15 54
7 Lyon 31 48 32 +16 57
8 Strasbourg 29 46 37 +9 43
9 Toulouse 31 43 44 -1 38
10 Stade Brestois 29 30 41 47 -6 38
11 Lorient 30 40 44 -4 41
12 Paris FC 30 40 46 -6 38
13 Nice 30 34 56 -22 29
14 Auxerre 31 27 42 -15 25
15 Metz 30 27 66 -39 15
16 Angers 31 26 43 -17 34
17 Le Havre 30 25 38 -13 30
18 Nantes 30 25 49 -24 20
# EQUIPE PJ xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Paris Saint Germain 30 55.5 20.9 +34.6 69
2 Lens 30 57.6 37.0 +20.6 63
3 Marseille 30 52.4 33.5 +18.9 52
4 Lille 30 49.2 34.9 +14.3 54
5 Strasbourg 29 44.5 35.5 +9.0 43
6 Monaco 31 53.3 45.1 +8.2 51
7 Rennes 30 47.5 43.7 +3.8 53
8 Lyon 31 42.7 39.8 +2.9 57
9 Lorient 30 38.4 39.4 -1.0 41
10 Toulouse 31 38.8 40.0 -1.2 38
11 Stade Brestois 29 30 38.9 41.6 -2.7 38
12 Auxerre 31 31.9 40.8 -8.9 25
13 Le Havre 30 33.7 45.3 -11.6 30
14 Paris FC 30 38.3 51.0 -12.7 38
15 Nantes 30 26.6 40.0 -13.4 20
16 Nice 30 37.9 53.9 -16.0 29
17 Angers 31 28.2 47.7 -19.5 34
18 Metz 30 30.4 55.6 -25.2 15