The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Arsenal Women at 51.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mga sinusubaybayang market kumpara sa full-time na resulta
Inihahambing ng bawat hilera ang modelong pre-match na lean sa full-time na resulta.
- palengke Hula Resulta kinalabasan
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 mga layunin) ✔ Tama
- Parehong Koponan ang Mag-iskor BTTS Oo Hindi ✖ mali
- 1X2 Arsenal Women Gumuhit ✖ mali
- Mga insight sa correct score 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Tama
Modelo kumpara sa Pagsasara ng Market
| kinalabasan | Modelo | Pagsasara ng Market | Pagkakaiba | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Women | 51.3% | 92.1% | -40.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.8% | 4.6% | +23.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Crystal Palace W | 20.9% | 3.3% | +17.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Arsenal Women's win probability at 92.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 51.3%, a difference of 40.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Pagkatapos ng buong oras, ang resulta ay Draw 0–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Arsenal Women; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Arsenal Women by 40.8 percentage points (92.1% vs model 51.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Timeline ng Hula
Paano lumipat ang hulang ito mula sa hula patungo sa full-time na pagsusuri.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Arsenal Women 51.3% · Draw 27.8% · Crystal Palace W 20.9%
- xG · Arsenal Women 1.63 — Crystal Palace W 0.97
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 13:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Arsenal Women 1.03 · Draw 20.78 · Crystal Palace W 28.57
- Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Women 92.1% · Draw 4.6% · Crystal Palace W 3.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Arsenal Women 1.03 · Draw 20.78 · Crystal Palace W 28.57
- Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Women 92.1% · Draw 4.6% · Crystal Palace W 3.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 13:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Makasaysayang Snapshot
Frozen sa kickoff — ang output ng modelo tulad ng nakatayo bago magsimula ang laban.
Makasaysayang label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Mga sukatan bago ang tugma (konteksto sa kasaysayan)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (41 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Suriin ang FAQ
- Gaano katumpak ang hula?
- Ang pahinang ito ay nagbibigay ng marka sa mga market ng direksyon (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) laban sa full-time na resulta. Ipinapakita ng marka ng hula kung gaano karami sa mga sinusubaybayang market na iyon ang tumugma sa katotohanan.
- Ano ang sinusukat ng xG Accuracy?
- Inihahambing ng xG Accuracy ang profile ng pre-match na inaasahang layunin ng modelo sa aktwal na scoreline — hindi kung tumama ang bawat market. Ang isang malakas na pagsusuri sa direksyon ay maaaring magkasamang may katamtamang marka ng katumpakan ng xG.
- Bakit hindi hinulaan ang eksaktong marka?
- Ang mga resulta ng tamang marka ay mga buntot na mababa ang posibilidad kahit na binasa nang mabuti ng modelo ang profile ng pagtutugma. Itina-highlight namin ang mga top score bin para sa konteksto; ang pagkawala ng eksaktong linya ay hindi nagpapawalang-bisa sa isang direksiyon na pagsusuri.
- Pinapabuti ba nito ang tala ng AI?
- Ang bawat natapos na laban ay naka-log in sa aming validation pipeline. Ang pinagsama-samang mga rate ng hit at pag-aaral sa CLV ay hiwalay na na-publish — ang page na ito ay ang bawat-match audit trail.
Ang mga hula ay para sa mga layuning pang-impormasyon lamang. Palaging magsugal nang responsable at sa loob ng iyong mga limitasyon. Hindi ginagarantiyahan ng nakaraang pagganap ang mga resulta sa hinaharap.
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FA Women's Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City Women | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Arsenal Women | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Liverpool Women | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | West Ham Women | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Aston Villa Women | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Brighton & Hove Albion Women | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham City Women | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Manchester United Women | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City Women | 4 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 7 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 5 | Liverpool Women | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | West Ham Women | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 7 | Aston Villa Women | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove Albion Women | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 9 | Birmingham City Women | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Arsenal Women | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Manchester United Women | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | +1.0 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester United Women | 3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 3 | Manchester City Women | 4 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 6 | Everton W | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal Women | 3 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 8 | Liverpool Women | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 10 | West Ham Women | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa Women | 3 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 12 | Brighton & Hove Albion Women | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham City Women | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | — | — | — | 0 |
