| Resulta | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cape Verde Islands | 34.0% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 37.0% |
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91.7% | 8.3% |
| 1.5 | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| 2.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 3.5 | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| 4.5 | 13.7% | 86.3% |
Poisson total λ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).
BTTS Yes 56.4% · No 43.6% — balanced BTTS split.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 0-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Top Poisson cell: 1-1 sa 12.2% (draw-type; mataas ang exact-score variance).
1X2 mula sa Elo λ (1.32 / 1.38): home 34.0%, draw 29.0%, away 37.0%. Source: Dixon–Coles Poisson — hindi bookmaker odds.
Qualitative clarity ng 1X2 — hindi calibrated confidence interval.
- Walang 1X2 outcome na higit sa 50%.
- Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.0 percentage points.
Paano kinakalkula ang win probabilities?
Home at away λ mula sa Elo ratings at tournament parameters, papasok sa Dixon–Coles Poisson grid para sa 1X2, goal lines at scorelines sa page na ito.
Betting advice ba ang page na ito?
Hindi. Nagpapakita lang ang OddsGPT ng model probabilities para sa impormasyon. Hindi kami nagrerekomenda ng taya o stake sizes.
Ano ang ibig sabihin ng xG / λ dito?
Ang λ ay pre-match expected goals bago i-simulate ang variance. Input sa Poisson matrix, hindi post-match xG stat.
Bakit mababa ang exact score probabilities?
Kahit ang pinaka-malamang na scoreline ay madalas below 15% dahil maraming kombinasyon ang naghahati sa mass — normal sa Poisson.
