The model missed the final outcome (Slovakia B-19 win 2–1).
The model had projected Switzerland U19 at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Switzerland U19 Slovakia B-19 ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Slovakia B-19 win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 01, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Slovakia B-19 1.24 — Switzerland U19 1.36
-
Oct 01, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Slovakia B-19 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Slovakia B-19 win · Slovakia B-19 2–1 Switzerland U19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "aecbb8886a651b6dc1abcdb5427a89504826363184ecfc447dbadf79f41d3b04",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3801,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.09,
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"home_win_prob": 0.3239,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Switzerland U19",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Switzerland U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Switzerland U19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0821,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.98
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
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"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Switzerland U19 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.16,
"market_odds": 1.98,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -12.5,
"value_pct": -24.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
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"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Slovakia B-19 or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Slovakia B-19 or Switzerland U19",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Switzerland U19",
"prob": 67.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Slovakia B-19 or Switzerland U19",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Switzerland U19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 9.8,
"implied_prob": 27.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.71
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.25,
"draw": 24.68,
"home": 29.07
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-01 09:29:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-01 08:59:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Slovakia B-19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.07,
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.68,
"gap_pp": 4.91,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.25,
"gap_pp": -8.21,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.88,
"gap_pp": -6.68,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.12,
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"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.71,
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},
{
"closing": 1.98,
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},
{
"closing": 1.71,
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},
{
"closing": 2.08,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
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"label": "1-1",
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"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
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},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0146,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.5551,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.539
},
"p_final": 0.4595,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
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"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
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"ev": -0.0396,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1758,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.6,
"text": "-17.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.4,
"text": "+11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1137,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10252.33,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0075,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4206,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.4206,
"model_prob": 0.456,
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},
"p_final": 0.4281,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0105,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.071,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.5794,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5711
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0915,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.2,
"text": "-9.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.026,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 5220.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1699,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.0,
"text": "-17.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0336,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.4,
"text": "-3.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.247,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Switzerland U19",
"sort_key": 1791.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +34.0%",
"alert_team": "Slovakia B-19",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.24,
"hero_label": "Switzerland U19",
"market_prob_pct": 46.2,
"market_team": "Switzerland U19",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Switzerland U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Switzerland U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Switzerland U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Switzerland U19 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Switzerland U19 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Switzerland U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Switzerland U19).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1699,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.247,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.24,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.24,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +34.0%",
"steam_team": "Slovakia B-19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Switzerland U19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Switzerland U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Switzerland U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Switzerland U19 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Switzerland U19 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Switzerland U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Switzerland U19).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1699,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.247,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Slovakia B-19 1.24 xG vs Switzerland U19 1.36 \u2192 Switzerland U19 38.0%",
"Market: Switzerland U19 ~46.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Slovakia B-19 odds \u2191 +34.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Switzerland U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.32,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Slovakia B-19",
"market_prob": 29.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.91,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.24,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Switzerland U19",
"market_prob": 46.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.33,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.33,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.34,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.34,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Switzerland U19",
"market_prob_pct": 46.25,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Slovakia B-19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Switzerland U19\u0027s win probability at 46.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.24,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Switzerland U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Switzerland U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Slovakia B-19 1.24 xG vs Switzerland U19 1.36 \u2192 Switzerland U19 38.0%",
"Market: Switzerland U19 ~46.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Slovakia B-19 odds \u2191 +34.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Switzerland U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.24,
"hero_label": "Switzerland U19",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Slovakia B-19 odds lengthened \u2191 +34.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Slovakia B-19 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Switzerland U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Slovakia B-19 \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Switzerland U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Slovakia B-19 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Slovakia B-19 \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Switzerland U19 above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Slovakia B-19 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Slovakia B-19."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.24,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Switzerland U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Switzerland U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.32,
"edge_pp": 3.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Slovakia B-19",
"market_prob_pct": 29.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.91,
"edge_pp": 4.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.68,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.24,
"edge_pp": -8.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Switzerland U19",
"market_prob_pct": 46.25,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Slovakia B-19 \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Switzerland U19 (46.2%).",
"However, Slovakia B-19 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +34.0%, 6/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Switzerland U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.51,
"closing_odds": 1.98,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.51,
"entry_odds": 1.98,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +34.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 34.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/6 books lengthened Slovakia B-19 together (34.0% drift, score 84) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.15",
"2.65",
"2.15"
],
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 53m",
"pick_team": "Slovakia B-19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
3.15,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Slovakia B-19 odds \u2191 +34.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Slovakia B-19",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Slovakia B-19 odds \u2191 +34.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Slovakia B-19",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Slovakia B-19",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_team_name": "Slovakia B-19",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "switzerland-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Switzerland U19",
"away_team_id": 10350,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10350.webp",
"away_team_name": "Switzerland U19",
"away_team_public_id": "2HZpuVSv75KUrM",
"away_team_slug": "switzerland-u19",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1642983,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Slovakia",
"home_team_display_name": "Slovakia B-19",
"home_team_id": 10347,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10347.webp",
"home_team_name": "Slovakia B-19",
"home_team_public_id": "1Wf5HmhR0eOltT",
"home_team_slug": "slovakia-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "slovakia-u19",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-01 09:30:00",
"public_id": "5F2Q6W9asEJApe",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5261,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0432,
"ev": -0.1699,
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4625,
"draw": 0.2468,
"home": 0.2907
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4193
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2779,
"best_odd": 3.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.2468,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4625,
"draw": 0.2468,
"home": 0.2907
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2605
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2851,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4625,
"draw": 0.2468,
"home": 0.2907
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3001
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.1247,
"ev": -0.2469,
"implied_prob": 0.5051,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.71,
"edge": 0.0264,
"ev": 0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.0063,
"ev": 0.0197,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.213,
"alpha_yes": 0.2343,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0334,
"edge_yes": -0.0334,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.071,
"ev_yes": -0.0915,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1005,
"implied_no": 0.4226,
"implied_yes": 0.5774,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.4206,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4281
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.5794,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5711
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4281,
"p_final_yes": 0.5711,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2204,
"alpha_under": 0.2003,
"best_over_odd": 1.71,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.675,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.09,
"edge_over": -0.0733,
"edge_under": 0.0733,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1758,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0972,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0396,
"implied_over": 0.5553,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5551,
"implied_under": 0.4447,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4449,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.5551,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.539
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0396,
"implied_prob": 0.4449,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4595
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.539,
"p_final_under": 0.4595,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Switzerland U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Switzerland U19 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Switzerland U19 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Switzerland U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Switzerland U19).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1699,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.247,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0432,
"ev": -0.1699,
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Switzerland U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0075,
"market_prob": 0.4206,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.4206,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4281
},
"p_final": 0.4281,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.071,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.5794,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5711
}
},
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.4226,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0146,
"market_prob": 0.4449,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.5551,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.539
},
"p_final": 0.4595,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0396,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0396,
"implied_prob": 0.4449,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4595
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0733,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1642983,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Switzerland U19",
"home": "Slovakia B-19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1699,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.247,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1642983,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-01T09:29:19.512956+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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