AI correctly predicted the Portugal U19 win.
The match finished 6–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Portugal U19 Portugal U19 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-1 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Portugal U19 win 6–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Portugal U19 1.30 — Belanda B-19 1.30
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Portugal U19 win · 6–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Portugal U19 win · Portugal U19 6–1 Belanda B-19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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},
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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}
},
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"pick": "No",
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},
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"scores": [
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},
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],
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},
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{
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{
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}
]
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}
},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10279.36,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1506,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.1,
"text": "-15.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0265,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2507,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Portugal U19",
"sort_key": 1793.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"alert_team": "Portugal U19",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.81,
"hero_label": "Portugal U19",
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"market_team": "Portugal U19",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Portugal U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portugal U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portugal U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Portugal U19 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Portugal U19 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Portugal U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portugal U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1506,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2507,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.81,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"steam_team": "Portugal U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portugal U19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portugal U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portugal U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Portugal U19 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Portugal U19 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Portugal U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portugal U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1506,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2507,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Portugal U19 1.30 xG vs Belanda B-19 1.30 \u2192 Portugal U19 35.2%",
"Market: Portugal U19 ~43.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Portugal U19 \u2193 -4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Portugal U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.81,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Portugal U19",
"market_prob": 42.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.56,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.24,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Belanda B-19",
"market_prob": 32.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.85,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.85,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.21,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Portugal U19",
"market_prob_pct": 42.98,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Portugal U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Portugal U19\u0027s win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Portugal U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Portugal U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Portugal U19 1.30 xG vs Belanda B-19 1.30 \u2192 Portugal U19 35.2%",
"Market: Portugal U19 ~43.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Portugal U19 \u2193 -4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Portugal U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.81,
"hero_label": "Portugal U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Portugal U19 odds shortened \u2193 -4.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Portugal U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Portugal U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Portugal U19 above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Portugal U19 (\u2193 -4.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Portugal U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Portugal U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.81,
"edge_pp": -7.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Portugal U19",
"market_prob_pct": 42.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.56,
"edge_pp": 5.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.09,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.24,
"edge_pp": 2.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Belanda B-19",
"market_prob_pct": 32.93,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Portugal U19 (43.0%).",
"Portugal U19 has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.5%, 1/8).",
"Portugal U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Portugal U19 (swing 2.20 \u2192 1.87 \u2192 2.10) \u2014 net 4.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.20",
"2.15",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.20 \u2192 1.87 \u2192 2.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 1m",
"pick_team": "Portugal U19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.87"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.13,
2.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,12.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Portugal U19",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Portugal U19",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Portugal U19",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_team_name": "Portugal U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "netherlands-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Belanda B-19",
"away_team_id": 10340,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10340.webp",
"away_team_name": "Belanda B-19",
"away_team_public_id": "1fQBGjefkqooMK",
"away_team_slug": "netherlands-u19",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1642982,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Portugal U19",
"home_team_id": 10343,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10343.webp",
"home_team_name": "Portugal U19",
"home_team_public_id": "3aDONpM471hWbq",
"home_team_slug": "portugal-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "portugal-u19",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-30 16:30:00",
"public_id": "5iDaqwHZqXaaqm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4348,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.3293,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3293,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3391
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.275,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.2409,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3293,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2562
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3973,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.031,
"ev": -0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3293,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.4298
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3988
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.3597,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": 0.0333,
"ev": 0.1265,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.1177,
"ev": -0.2507,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1452,
"alpha_yes": 0.1996,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1221,
"edge_yes": -0.1221,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3104,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.038,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.125,
"implied_no": 0.3329,
"implied_yes": 0.6671,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3448
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.6739,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6482
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3448,
"p_final_yes": 0.6482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1796,
"alpha_under": 0.1306,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.7,
"edge_over": -0.1785,
"edge_under": 0.1785,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1403,
"ev_under": 0.4918,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.031,
"implied_over": 0.6605,
"implied_over_mf": 0.665,
"implied_under": 0.3395,
"implied_under_mf": 0.335,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.665,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3589
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6322,
"p_final_under": 0.3589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portugal U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Portugal U19 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Portugal U19 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Portugal U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Portugal U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1506,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2507,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.031,
"ev": -0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Portugal U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.3261,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3448
},
"p_final": 0.3448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.038,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.6739,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6482
}
},
"edge": 0.1221,
"ev": 0.3104,
"implied_prob": 0.3329,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"market_prob": 0.335,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.665,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"p_final": 0.3589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3589
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1785,
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3395,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1642982,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4918,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3104,
"implied_prob": 0.3329,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3104,
"implied_prob": 0.3329,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Belanda B-19",
"home": "Portugal U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.178327,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3395,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1506,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2507,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1642982,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-30T16:29:18.833258+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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