AI correctly predicted the FC Blau-Weiß Linz win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 FC Blau-Weiß Linz FC Blau-Weiß Linz ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (FC Blau-Weiß Linz win 1–2).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Red Bull Salzburg 1.28 — FC Blau-Weiß Linz 1.32
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FC Blau-Weiß Linz win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
FC Blau-Weiß Linz win · Red Bull Salzburg 1–2 FC Blau-Weiß Linz
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8555ccbfab2d81ab5bc4093fd698de755fab3883d30e17a06803dea79ff5fd2a",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.3712,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.465,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"dc_rho": -0.05,
"draw_prob": 0.2764,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.69,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.62,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3524,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Red Bull Salzburg or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Red Bull Salzburg"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2123,
"edge_gap": 0.0196,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1594,
"model_prob": 0.3717,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.2,
"draw": 27.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 5.44
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 5.44,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 6.27,
"market_odds": 5.44,
"model_odds": 2.69,
"overround": 15.3,
"prob_edge": 18.8,
"value_pct": 102.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 10,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 46.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Red Bull Salzburg or Draw",
"prob": 62.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Red Bull Salzburg or FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"prob": 72.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"prob": 64.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Red Bull Salzburg or FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"pick_prob": 72.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 27.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 102.2,
"implied_prob": 18.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz Win",
"model_prob": 37.2,
"odds": 5.44
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 15.94,
"draw": 19.8,
"home": 64.25
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 15:29:10",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 14:59:31",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.25,
"gap_pp": -29.04,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.21
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.8,
"gap_pp": 7.82,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.62
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.94,
"gap_pp": 21.23,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.17
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.73,
"gap_pp": -17.53,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.27,
"gap_pp": 17.53,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.35,
"early": 1.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.25,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.38,
"early": 4.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.8,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.44,
"early": 5.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 15.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 15.94,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.34,
"early": 1.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.73,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.57,
"early": 2.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.27,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 21.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.6,
"ev": 0.4,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 11.2,
"market_prob": 0.0893,
"market_prob_pct": 8.9,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1484,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0174,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4011,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.1374,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5751
},
"p_final": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1603,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0627,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1484,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3157,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 31.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3157,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10434.13,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.44,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0248,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.5,
"text": "+2.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0248,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.5,
"text": "+2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3717,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.022,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+102.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"sort_key": 5219.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0073,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4309,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4381
},
"p_final": 0.4381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0049,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0624,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5611
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0091,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.9,
"text": "+0.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0102,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0091,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 46.5,
"sort_key": 5207.28,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"alert_team": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 29.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -29.01,
"hero_label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"market_prob_pct": 15.9,
"market_team": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz), but pricing still diverges by 29.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz), but pricing still diverges by 29.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010221000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz at 37.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz as the value side (37.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz), but pricing still diverges by 29.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0248,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3717,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1838235294117647,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.022,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+102.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (29 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 29.01,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 29.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"steam_team": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz), but pricing still diverges by 29.0 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz), but pricing still diverges by 29.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz), but pricing still diverges by 29.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010221000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz at 37.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz as the value side (37.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz), but pricing still diverges by 29.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0248,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3717,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1838235294117647,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.022,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+102.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Red Bull Salzburg 1.28 xG vs FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz 1.32 \u2192 FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz 37.1%",
"Market: Red Bull Salzburg ~15.9% implied",
"Market Steam: FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz \u2193 -16.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz, but market pricing diverges by 29 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -29.01,
"fair_prob": 35.24,
"label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"market_prob": 64.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.84,
"fair_prob": 27.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.18,
"fair_prob": 37.12,
"label": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"market_prob": 15.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.83,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.83,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.26,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.26,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -29.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"market_prob_pct": 64.25,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Red Bull Salzburg\u0027s win probability at 64.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 29.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 29.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 15.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+21.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 21.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+21.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 21.2,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+21.2 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Red Bull Salzburg 1.28 xG vs FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz 1.32 \u2192 FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz 37.1%",
"Market: Red Bull Salzburg ~15.9% implied",
"Market Steam: FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz \u2193 -16.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz, but market pricing diverges by 29 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -29.01,
"hero_label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz odds shortened \u2193 -16.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 29.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"largest_gap_pp": -29.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Red Bull Salzburg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 29.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -29.01,
"edge_pp": -29.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"market_prob_pct": 64.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.84,
"edge_pp": 7.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.8,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 21.18,
"edge_pp": 21.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.12,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"market_prob_pct": 15.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Red Bull Salzburg (15.9%).",
"However, FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -16.0%, 4/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz, Market \u2192 Red Bull Salzburg, Recent sharp money \u2192 FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 74.07,
"closing_odds": 1.35,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 74.07,
"entry_odds": 1.35,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.0
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz (16.0%, 4/6) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.25",
"5.75",
"5.25"
],
"display": "7.90 \u2192 4.38 \u2192 5.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 57m",
"pick_team": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.25,
5.44,
5.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.25,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz \u2193 -16.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz \u2193 -16.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"open_odds": 6.25,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"open_odds": 6.25,
"pick_team": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 29.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-bw-linz",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"away_team_id": 1394,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1394.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"away_team_public_id": "333HBajoi5xBe6",
"away_team_slug": "fc-bw-linz",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1642926,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"home_team_id": 571,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/571.webp",
"home_team_name": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"home_team_public_id": "2XQ2OtBWB9tMTc",
"home_team_slug": "red-bull-salzburg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "red-bull-salzburg",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Giao h\u1eefu C\u00e2u l\u1ea1c b\u1ed9",
"league_id": 667,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/667.webp",
"league_name": "Giao h\u1eefu C\u00e2u l\u1ea1c b\u1ed9",
"league_public_id": "3I6eEw8WBX7aoH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 15:30:00",
"public_id": "27jNFO7lC24zgW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1363,
"best_odd": 5.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0248,
"implied_prob": 0.1594,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1594,
"draw": 0.198,
"home": 0.6425
},
"model_prob": 0.3717,
"p_final": 0.1884
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1765,
"best_odd": 4.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.198,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1594,
"draw": 0.198,
"home": 0.6425
},
"model_prob": 0.2762,
"p_final": 0.2118
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3386,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0983,
"ev": -0.2654,
"implied_prob": 0.6425,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1594,
"draw": 0.198,
"home": 0.6425
},
"model_prob": 0.3521,
"p_final": 0.5442
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.44,
"edge": 0.1879,
"ev": 1.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.1838,
"model_prob": 0.3717
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.38,
"edge": 0.0479,
"ev": 0.2098,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"model_prob": 0.2762
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.3887,
"ev": -0.5247,
"implied_prob": 0.7407,
"model_prob": 0.3521
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2135,
"alpha_yes": 0.2348,
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0126,
"edge_yes": -0.0126,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0091,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0624,
"ev_yes": -0.0102,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.091,
"implied_no": 0.4524,
"implied_yes": 0.5476,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4381
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5611
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4381,
"p_final_yes": 0.5611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2041,
"alpha_under": 0.1484,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.54,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.24,
"edge_over": -0.1183,
"edge_under": 0.1183,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1374,
"ev_under": 0.3157,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0627,
"implied_over": 0.6003,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5989,
"implied_under": 0.3997,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4011,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.1374,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5751
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1484,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4184
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5751,
"p_final_under": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0221,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3157,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz), but pricing still diverges by 29.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010221000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz at 37.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz as the value side (37.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz), but pricing still diverges by 29.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0248,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3717,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1838235294117647,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.022,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+102.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"draw_prob": 0.2762,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3717,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.44,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0248,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1594,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3717,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0073,
"market_prob": 0.4309,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2135,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4381
},
"p_final": 0.4381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0624,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5611
}
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": 0.0091,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4524,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1484,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0174,
"market_prob": 0.4011,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.1374,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5751
},
"p_final": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0627,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1484,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1183,
"ev": 0.3157,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1642926,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3157,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3717,
"draw": 0.2762,
"home": 0.3521
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Blau-Wei\u00df Linz",
"home": "Red Bull Salzburg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.163533,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3157,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0248,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3717,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1838235294117647,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.022,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+102.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1642926,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T15:29:12.716682+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Red Bull Salzburg & FC Blau-Weiß Linz!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Thế giới. Giao hữu Câu lạc bộ Dự đoán
