The model missed the final outcome (Ska-Khabarovsk win 0–4).
The model had projected Znamya Noginsk at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Znamya Noginsk Ska-Khabarovsk ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Znamya Noginsk; match finished Ska-Khabarovsk
Market lesson
The full-time result was Ska-Khabarovsk win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Znamya Noginsk 1.37 — Ska-Khabarovsk 1.23
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ska-Khabarovsk win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ska-Khabarovsk win · Znamya Noginsk 0–4 Ska-Khabarovsk
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
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},
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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},
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{
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],
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
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"home_played": 3,
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"pick": "Yes",
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
},
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"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"market": "Znamya Noginsk Win",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 57.43,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 13:00:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 12:30:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Znamya Noginsk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
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{
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{
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]
},
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-22.9%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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},
"featured": true,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0216,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2004,
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"max_ev": 0.0216,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "+2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.4 percentage points",
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Znamya Noginsk",
"sort_key": 5217.28,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1687,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.007,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4142,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1687,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.4142,
"model_prob": 0.456,
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},
"p_final": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0123,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0647,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5858,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5761
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0169,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.135,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 5213.52,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/3",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/3 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"alert_team": "Znamya Noginsk",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 25.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.49,
"hero_label": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"market_prob_pct": 20.0,
"market_team": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Znamya Noginsk",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Znamya Noginsk), but pricing still diverges by 25.5 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Znamya Noginsk), but pricing still diverges by 25.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7308,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Znamya Noginsk at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Znamya Noginsk as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Znamya Noginsk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Znamya Noginsk \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.34 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +73% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635080 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.34 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +24.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Znamya Noginsk), but pricing still diverges by 25.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +73% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0216,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2004,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2222222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7307,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+73.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (25 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 25.49,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 25.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"steam_team": "Znamya Noginsk",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Znamya Noginsk), but pricing still diverges by 25.5 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Znamya Noginsk), but pricing still diverges by 25.5 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Znamya Noginsk), but pricing still diverges by 25.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7308,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Znamya Noginsk at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Znamya Noginsk as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Znamya Noginsk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Znamya Noginsk \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.34 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +73% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635080 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.34 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +24.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Znamya Noginsk), but pricing still diverges by 25.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +73% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0216,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2004,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2222222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7307,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+73.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Znamya Noginsk 1.37 xG vs Ska-Khabarovsk 1.23 \u2192 Znamya Noginsk 38.5%",
"Market: Ska-Khabarovsk ~20.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Znamya Noginsk \u2193 -4.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Znamya Noginsk, but market pricing diverges by 25 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 18.45,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Znamya Noginsk",
"market_prob": 20.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.03,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -25.49,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"market_prob": 57.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.25,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.25,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.0,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.0,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -25.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"market_prob_pct": 57.43,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Znamya Noginsk"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ska-Khabarovsk\u0027s win probability at 57.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 25.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 25.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Znamya Noginsk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Znamya Noginsk \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+18.5 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Znamya Noginsk 1.37 xG vs Ska-Khabarovsk 1.23 \u2192 Znamya Noginsk 38.5%",
"Market: Ska-Khabarovsk ~20.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Znamya Noginsk \u2193 -4.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Znamya Noginsk, but market pricing diverges by 25 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.49,
"hero_label": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Znamya Noginsk odds shortened \u2193 -4.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 25.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"largest_gap_pp": -25.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ska-Khabarovsk higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 25.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 18.45,
"edge_pp": 18.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Znamya Noginsk",
"market_prob_pct": 20.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.03,
"edge_pp": 7.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.54,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -25.49,
"edge_pp": -25.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"market_prob_pct": 57.43,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ska-Khabarovsk (20.0%).",
"Znamya Noginsk has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.4%, 3/3).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Znamya Noginsk, Market \u2192 Ska-Khabarovsk, Recent sharp money \u2192 Znamya Noginsk.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 63.69,
"closing_odds": 1.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 63.69,
"entry_odds": 1.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
}
],
"books_total": 3,
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.79,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 102h 9m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market support on Znamya Noginsk (4.4%) \u2014 3/3 books shortening the line.",
"Noticeable line movement, though without clear sharp-book leadership."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.01",
"4.75",
"4.50"
],
"display": "5.10 \u2192 4.50 \u2192 4.79",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 102h 9m",
"pick_team": "Znamya Noginsk",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.79"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.01,
4.5,
4.79
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,7.8",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.01"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.01"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.79"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.01,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Znamya Noginsk",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u2197",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.79,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"open_odds": 5.01,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Znamya Noginsk",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_support",
"signal_label": "Market support",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 4.79,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"open_odds": 5.01,
"pick_team": "Znamya Noginsk",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Znamya Noginsk",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 25.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ska-khabarovsk",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"away_team_id": 1087,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1087.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"away_team_public_id": "5hYRN9jVLABX7h",
"away_team_slug": "ska-khabarovsk",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1635080,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "Znamya Noginsk",
"home_team_id": 14121,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14121.webp",
"home_team_name": "Znamya Noginsk",
"home_team_public_id": "3ipbB17ZkfpiDV",
"home_team_slug": "znamya-noginsk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "znamya-noginsk",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Piala Rusia",
"league_id": 237,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/237.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Rusia",
"league_public_id": "4WW01zD5MMpbUp",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3ZE8GZvSUmhO0N",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3707,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0944,
"ev": -0.2467,
"implied_prob": 0.5743,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5743,
"draw": 0.2254,
"home": 0.2004
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.4798
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1789,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.2254,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5743,
"draw": 0.2254,
"home": 0.2004
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.238
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1447,
"best_odd": 4.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": 0.0216,
"implied_prob": 0.2004,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5743,
"draw": 0.2254,
"home": 0.2004
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.227
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.3174,
"ev": -0.4984,
"implied_prob": 0.6369,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0459,
"ev": 0.1835,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.5,
"edge": 0.1624,
"ev": 0.7308,
"implied_prob": 0.2222,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1687,
"alpha_yes": 0.232,
"best_no_odd": 2.23,
"best_yes_odd": 1.59,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.04,
"edge_yes": -0.04,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0169,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0647,
"ev_yes": -0.135,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0956,
"implied_no": 0.416,
"implied_yes": 0.584,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1687,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.4142,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5858,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5761
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4213,
"p_final_yes": 0.5761,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1997,
"alpha_under": 0.1452,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.51,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.37,
"edge_over": -0.1225,
"edge_under": 0.1225,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1165,
"ev_under": 0.2432,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0333,
"implied_over": 0.6045,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6108,
"implied_under": 0.3955,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3892,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.6108,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5851
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.37,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.3892,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4079
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5851,
"p_final_under": 0.4079,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7308,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.1,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Znamya Noginsk), but pricing still diverges by 25.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7308,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Znamya Noginsk at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Znamya Noginsk as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Znamya Noginsk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Znamya Noginsk \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.34 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +73% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635080 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.34 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +24.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Znamya Noginsk), but pricing still diverges by 25.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +73% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0216,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2004,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2222222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7307,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+73.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": 0.0216,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2004,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Znamya Noginsk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1687,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.007,
"market_prob": 0.4142,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1687,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.4142,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"p_final": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0647,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5858,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5761
}
},
"edge": 0.04,
"ev": 0.0169,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.416,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.37,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.3892,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.6108,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5851
},
"p_final": 0.4079,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0333,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.37,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.3892,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4079
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1225,
"ev": 0.2432,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3955,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635080,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2432,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ska-Khabarovsk",
"home": "Znamya Noginsk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088184,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.3955,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0216,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2004,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2222222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7307,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+73.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635080,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:00:28.459144+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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