The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Đan Mạch U19 at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Đan Mạch U19 Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Đan Mạch U19; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Đan Mạch U19 1.30 — Netherlands U19 1.30
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Đan Mạch U19 1–1 Netherlands U19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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}
},
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"text": "+9.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10082.8,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1311,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.1,
"text": "-13.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0483,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.8,
"text": "-4.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"sort_key": 1787.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.0,
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"hero_edge_pp": -5.03,
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"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"market_team": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1311,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.03,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.03,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1311,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 1.30 xG vs Netherlands U19 1.30 \u2192 \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 35.2%",
"Market: \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 ~40.2% implied",
"Market Steam: \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.03,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"market_prob": 40.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.48,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Netherlands U19",
"market_prob": 33.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.07,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.07,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.05,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.05,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19\u0027s win probability at 40.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.03,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 1.30 xG vs Netherlands U19 1.30 \u2192 \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 35.2%",
"Market: \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 ~40.2% implied",
"Market Steam: \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.03,
"hero_label": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.03,
"edge_pp": -5.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.54,
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.11,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.48,
"edge_pp": 1.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Netherlands U19",
"market_prob_pct": 33.69,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 (40.2%).",
"\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
"closing_odds": 2.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
"entry_odds": 2.28,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "netherlands-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Netherlands U19",
"away_team_id": 10340,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10340.webp",
"away_team_name": "Netherlands U19",
"away_team_public_id": "1fQBGjefkqooMK",
"away_team_slug": "netherlands-u19",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1632354,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Denmark",
"home_team_display_name": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"home_team_id": 10331,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10331.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"home_team_public_id": "0ievU7RCDlc0Y5",
"home_team_slug": "denmark-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "denmark-u19",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Giao h\u1eefu",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Giao h\u1eefu",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-06 11:00:00",
"public_id": "1taWPvSGm9oxKX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3369,
"draw": 0.2611,
"home": 0.402
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3435
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2841,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.2611,
"joint_probs": {
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"draw": 0.2611,
"home": 0.402
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2711
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4161,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1311,
"implied_prob": 0.402,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3369,
"draw": 0.2611,
"home": 0.402
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
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}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": 0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": -0.0868,
"ev": -0.198,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1636,
"alpha_yes": 0.2249,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0605,
"edge_yes": -0.0605,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0684,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1118,
"implied_no": 0.3945,
"implied_yes": 0.6055,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1636,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0684,
"implied_prob": 0.3942,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4042
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2249,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0137,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.6058,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5921
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4042,
"p_final_yes": 0.5921,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2107,
"alpha_under": 0.1532,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.585,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": -0.1007,
"edge_under": 0.1007,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1119,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0453,
"implied_over": 0.5827,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5812,
"implied_under": 0.4173,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4188,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1119,
"implied_prob": 0.5812,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5603
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1532,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.4188,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.434
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5603,
"p_final_under": 0.434,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1311,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1311,
"implied_prob": 0.402,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1636,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0099,
"market_prob": 0.3942,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1636,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0684,
"implied_prob": 0.3942,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4042
},
"p_final": 0.4042,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0684,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2249,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0137,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.6058,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5921
}
},
"edge": 0.0605,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.3945,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0152,
"market_prob": 0.4188,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1119,
"implied_prob": 0.5812,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5603
},
"p_final": 0.434,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0453,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1532,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0453,
"implied_prob": 0.4188,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.434
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1007,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4173,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1632354,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Netherlands U19",
"home": "\u0110an M\u1ea1ch U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4173,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1311,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1979,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632354,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-06T10:59:07.572587+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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