The model missed the final outcome (Austria Bawah 19 win 0–1).
The model had projected Belanda B-19 at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Belanda B-19 Austria Bawah 19 ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Belanda B-19; match finished Austria Bawah 19
Market lesson
The full-time result was Austria Bawah 19 win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Belanda B-19 1.31 — Austria Bawah 19 1.29
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Austria Bawah 19 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Austria Bawah 19 win · Belanda B-19 0–1 Austria Bawah 19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
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},
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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],
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
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"options": [
{
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Belanda B-19 or Austria Bawah 19",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
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"lean_label": "Belanda B-19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
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"confidence": "low",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 5.7,
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"odds": 3.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"draw": 25.63,
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},
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 11:59:01",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 11:29:52",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
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"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0971,
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},
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"raw_pct": 12.4,
"text": "+12.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
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"edge": 0.0067,
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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},
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.144,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0442,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2313,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Belanda B-19",
"sort_key": 1788.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"alert_team": "Austria Bawah 19",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.73,
"hero_label": "Belanda B-19",
"market_prob_pct": 42.4,
"market_team": "Belanda B-19",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Belanda B-19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Belanda B-19 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Belanda B-19 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Belanda B-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2313,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 72,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.73,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"steam_team": "Austria Bawah 19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Belanda B-19 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Belanda B-19 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Belanda B-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2313,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Belanda B-19 1.31 xG vs Austria Bawah 19 1.29 \u2192 Belanda B-19 35.6%",
"Market: Belanda B-19 ~42.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Austria Bawah 19 \u2193 -12.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Belanda B-19, but sharp money moved toward Austria Bawah 19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.73,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Belanda B-19",
"market_prob": 42.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.02,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Austria Bawah 19",
"market_prob": 32.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.22,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.22,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.87,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.87,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Belanda B-19",
"market_prob_pct": 42.37,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Austria Bawah 19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Belanda B-19\u0027s win probability at 42.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Belanda B-19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 72,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Belanda B-19 1.31 xG vs Austria Bawah 19 1.29 \u2192 Belanda B-19 35.6%",
"Market: Belanda B-19 ~42.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Austria Bawah 19 \u2193 -12.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Belanda B-19, but sharp money moved toward Austria Bawah 19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.73,
"hero_label": "Belanda B-19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Austria Bawah 19 odds shortened \u2193 -12.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Austria Bawah 19, with odds shortening by 12.1%. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Belanda B-19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Austria Bawah 19 \u2014 odds shortened by 12.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Belanda B-19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Austria Bawah 19, with odds shortening by 12.1%. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Austria Bawah 19 \u2014 odds shortened by 12.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Belanda B-19 above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Austria Bawah 19 has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 12.1%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Belanda B-19",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Belanda B-19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.73,
"edge_pp": -6.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Belanda B-19",
"market_prob_pct": 42.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.02,
"edge_pp": 4.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.63,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.7,
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Austria Bawah 19",
"market_prob_pct": 32.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Austria Bawah 19 \u2014 odds shortened by 12.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Belanda B-19 (42.4%).",
"Austria Bawah 19 has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -12.1%, 1/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Belanda B-19, Market \u2192 Belanda B-19, Recent sharp money \u2192 Austria Bawah 19.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.3,
"closing_odds": 2.16,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.3,
"entry_odds": 2.16,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Austria Bawah 19 (12.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.08",
"2.86"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.58 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 50m",
"pick_team": "Austria Bawah 19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.58"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
2.86,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,16.4",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Austria Bawah 19",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Market moved toward Austria Bawah 19 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Austria Bawah 19",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Austria Bawah 19",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Austria Bawah 19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "austria-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Austria Bawah 19",
"away_team_id": 10326,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10326.webp",
"away_team_name": "Austria Bawah 19",
"away_team_public_id": "2f6fIUqTYYtDeg",
"away_team_slug": "austria-u19",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1632352,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Belanda B-19",
"home_team_id": 10340,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10340.webp",
"home_team_name": "Belanda B-19",
"home_team_public_id": "1fQBGjefkqooMK",
"home_team_slug": "netherlands-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "netherlands-u19",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 12:00:00",
"public_id": "3vJuyc9Zab5uAP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4316,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.32,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.32,
"draw": 0.2563,
"home": 0.4237
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3318
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2818,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.2563,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.32,
"draw": 0.2563,
"home": 0.4237
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2677
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4043,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.144,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.32,
"draw": 0.2563,
"home": 0.4237
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3963
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.0024,
"ev": -0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": 0.0595,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": -0.107,
"ev": -0.2312,
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1694,
"alpha_yes": 0.2329,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0387,
"edge_yes": -0.0387,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0709,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0999,
"implied_no": 0.4163,
"implied_yes": 0.5837,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4223
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5752
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4223,
"p_final_yes": 0.5752,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2211,
"alpha_under": 0.201,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": -0.0722,
"edge_under": 0.0722,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0971,
"ev_under": 0.1241,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0409,
"implied_over": 0.5542,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5532,
"implied_under": 0.4458,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4468,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2211,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0971,
"implied_prob": 0.5532,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5375
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.201,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0409,
"implied_prob": 0.4468,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4611
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5375,
"p_final_under": 0.4611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Belanda B-19 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Belanda B-19 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Belanda B-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Austria Bawah 19, but the model still strongly favours Belanda B-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2313,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
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},
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"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T11:59:06.878439+00:00",
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}
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