AI correctly predicted the Petrojet win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Petrojet Petrojet ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Petrojet attacking xG significantly stronger (1.43 vs 1.04)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Petrojet win 1–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · El Gouna FC 1.04 — Petrojet 1.43
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Petrojet win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
2.19
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Petrojet win · El Gouna FC 1–2 Petrojet
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 45.6%
- Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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"yes_prob": 50.8
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0062,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0062,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4441,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0481,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Petrojet",
"sort_key": 1798.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"alert_team": "El Gouna FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.94,
"hero_label": "Petrojet",
"market_prob_pct": 40.4,
"market_team": "Petrojet",
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"model_team": "Petrojet",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrojet)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrojet)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1494,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1494,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petrojet at 44.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Petrojet as the value side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Petrojet",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrojet).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4441,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0481,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.39
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.94,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.43,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.04,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.04 \u00b7 Away xG 1.43 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"steam_team": "El Gouna FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrojet).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrojet)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrojet)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1494,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1494,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petrojet at 44.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Petrojet as the value side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Petrojet",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrojet).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4441,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0481,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.39
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Gouna FC 1.04 xG vs Petrojet 1.43 \u2192 Petrojet 44.4%",
"Market: Petrojet ~40.4% implied",
"Market Drift: El Gouna FC odds \u2191 +3.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Petrojet with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.22,
"fair_prob": 25.8,
"label": "El Gouna FC",
"market_prob": 27.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.73,
"fair_prob": 29.83,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.94,
"fair_prob": 44.36,
"label": "Petrojet",
"market_prob": 40.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.0,
"fair_prob": 44.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.0,
"fair_prob": 55.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.35,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.35,
"fair_prob": 49.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.36,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Petrojet",
"market_prob_pct": 40.42,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "El Gouna FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Petrojet",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.0,
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Petrojet \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Gouna FC 1.04 xG vs Petrojet 1.43 \u2192 Petrojet 44.4%",
"Market: Petrojet ~40.4% implied",
"Market Drift: El Gouna FC odds \u2191 +3.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Petrojet with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.94,
"hero_label": "Petrojet",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "El Gouna FC odds lengthened \u2191 +3.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, El Gouna FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, El Gouna FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.6%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, El Gouna FC has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.6%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.5 pp (at 44.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.5,
"max_prob_pct": 44.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Petrojet",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.22,
"edge_pp": -1.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "El Gouna FC",
"market_prob_pct": 27.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.73,
"edge_pp": -2.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.83,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.56,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.94,
"edge_pp": 3.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.36,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Petrojet",
"market_prob_pct": 40.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Petrojet (40.4%).",
"El Gouna FC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.6%, 4/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Petrojet \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.37,
"closing_odds": 2.36,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.37,
"entry_odds": 2.36,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on El Gouna FC (swing 3.26 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 2.90) \u2014 net 3.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.53",
"3.17",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.26 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 57m",
"pick_team": "El Gouna FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.26"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
3.53,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,15.5",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "El Gouna FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "El Gouna FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "El Gouna FC",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "El Gouna FC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "petrojet",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Petrojet",
"away_team_id": 1041,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1041.webp",
"away_team_name": "Petrojet",
"away_team_public_id": "1nYiw5jobwsrSE",
"away_team_slug": "petrojet",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1612246,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Egypt",
"home_team_display_name": "El Gouna FC",
"home_team_id": 1574,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1574.webp",
"home_team_name": "El Gouna FC",
"home_team_public_id": "26vdEKjgmehrvK",
"home_team_slug": "el-gouna-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "el-gouna-fc",
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Liga Perdana Mesir",
"league_id": 233,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/233.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Perdana Mesir",
"league_public_id": "5BSRqT0INOx7NZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2SeEoSh2OhgM16",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.423,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0062,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4042,
"draw": 0.3256,
"home": 0.2702
},
"model_prob": 0.4441,
"p_final": 0.4211
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4316,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.0806,
"implied_prob": 0.3256,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4042,
"draw": 0.3256,
"home": 0.2702
},
"model_prob": 0.2983,
"p_final": 0.3138
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2943,
"best_odd": 3.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0037,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.2702,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4042,
"draw": 0.3256,
"home": 0.2702
},
"model_prob": 0.2576,
"p_final": 0.2665
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": 0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.4441
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.93,
"edge": -0.043,
"ev": -0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.2983
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.53,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.0908,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"model_prob": 0.2576
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.531,
"alpha_yes": 0.4827,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0535,
"edge_yes": 0.0535,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.139,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.126,
"ev_yes": 0.0668,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0251,
"implied_no": 0.5455,
"implied_yes": 0.4545,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.531,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0285,
"ev": -0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5172
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4827,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": -0.0251,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4802
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5172,
"p_final_yes": 0.4802,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.377,
"alpha_under": 0.5183,
"best_over_odd": 2.56,
"best_under_odd": 1.52,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.44,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.07,
"edge_under": -0.07,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1494,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0083,
"ev_under": -0.1625,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1242,
"implied_over": 0.379,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3807,
"implied_under": 0.621,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6193,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.377,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.3807,
"model_prob": 0.449,
"p_final": 0.4065
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5183,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0354,
"ev": -0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.6193,
"model_prob": 0.551,
"p_final": 0.5839
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4065,
"p_final_under": 0.5839,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.47,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1494,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1494,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1494,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrojet)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1494,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1494,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petrojet at 44.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Petrojet as the value side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Petrojet",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petrojet).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4441,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0481,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.39
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.508,
"draw_prob": 0.2983,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4441,
"over_prob": 0.449,
"total_xg": 2.47,
"under_prob": 0.551,
"xg_diff": 0.39
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0062,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4441,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Petrojet"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4827,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0259,
"market_prob": 0.4543,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.531,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0285,
"ev": -0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5172
},
"p_final": 0.4802,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0251,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4827,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": -0.0251,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4802
}
},
"edge": 0.0535,
"ev": 0.0668,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.377,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0257,
"market_prob": 0.3807,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.449,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.377,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.3807,
"model_prob": 0.449,
"p_final": 0.4065
},
"p_final": 0.4065,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0083,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5183,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0354,
"ev": -0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.6193,
"model_prob": 0.551,
"p_final": 0.5839
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.07,
"ev": 0.1494,
"implied_prob": 0.379,
"model_prob": 0.449,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612246,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1494,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4441,
"draw": 0.2983,
"home": 0.2576
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0668,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0668,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Petrojet",
"home": "El Gouna FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041322,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1494,
"implied_prob": 0.379,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.449,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4441,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0481,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612246,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T13:59:38.747762+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk El Gouna FC & Petrojet!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Perdana Mesir — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Al Ahly | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Future FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Petrojet | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | El Geish | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Masr | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Al Masry | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | National Bank of Egypt | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Enppi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 15 |
| 3 | Al Ahly | 5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | Petrojet | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Future FC | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Enppi | 5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | El Geish | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Al Masry | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Masr | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | National Bank of Egypt | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 3 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 6.5 | 1.7 | +4.8 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Masry | 5 | 7.3 | 4.3 | +3.0 | 6 |
| 3 | Petrojet | 5 | 5.3 | 3.7 | +1.6 | 7 |
| 4 | National Bank of Egypt | 5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | +1.6 | 6 |
| 5 | Al Ahly | 5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 13 |
| 6 | Future FC | 5 | 6.9 | 5.7 | +1.2 | 10 |
| 7 | Smouha SC | 5 | 3.1 | 2.2 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 8 | Masr | 5 | 4.6 | 4.1 | +0.5 | 7 |
| 9 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 6.2 | 5.9 | +0.3 | 12 |
| 10 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | +0.3 | 5 |
| 11 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | +0.2 | 2 |
| 12 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | +0.1 | 10 |
| 13 | El Geish | 5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | -0.1 | 7 |
| 14 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 15 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 3.2 | 4.9 | -1.7 | 2 |
| 16 | Enppi | 5 | 6.1 | 8.0 | -1.9 | 4 |
| 17 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 3.8 | 5.9 | -2.1 | 7 |
| 18 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 3.2 | 5.8 | -2.6 | 13 |
| 19 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 4.0 | 7.0 | -3.0 | 6 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 2.2 | 5.9 | -3.7 | 1 |
