The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Omonia Aradippou at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Omonia Aradippou Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Omonia Aradippou; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Omonia Aradippou 1.39 — Olympiakos 1.21
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Omonia Aradippou 1–1 Olympiakos
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a027f1372e6f69132863cb6892c1aeb511cd9156b9899af6237ff362652e08db",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Omonia Aradippou or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Omonia Aradippou"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Omonia Aradippou",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0237,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.5
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Omonia Aradippou Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.69,
"market_odds": 2.5,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": -0.5,
"value_pct": -1.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Omonia Aradippou or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Omonia Aradippou or Olympiakos",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Olympiakos",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Omonia Aradippou or Olympiakos",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Omonia Aradippou"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -1.2,
"implied_prob": 40.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Omonia Aradippou Win",
"model_prob": 39.5,
"odds": 2.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Olympiakos",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.5,
"draw": 28.38,
"home": 37.12
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:00:44",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 16:32:33",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Omonia Aradippou",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.12,
"gap_pp": 2.37,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.38,
"gap_pp": 1.09,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.5,
"gap_pp": -3.47,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.26,
"gap_pp": 2.94,
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"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.74,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.27,
"early": 3.27,
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},
{
"closing": 2.69,
"early": 2.69,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
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},
{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
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"market_prob": 0.1538,
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"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
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"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4521,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2257,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4589
},
"p_final": 0.4589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
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"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5479,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5405
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0267,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.7,
"text": "+2.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.4,
"text": "-10.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0267,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5221.36,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0066,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.5122,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0905,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4812
},
"p_final": 0.5188,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0226,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0661,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5188
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1271,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.7,
"text": "-12.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0063,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0063,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 1798.425,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0462,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.6,
"text": "-4.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0462,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.6,
"text": "-4.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0128,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Omonia Aradippou",
"sort_key": 1788.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"alert_team": "Omonia Aradippou",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.47,
"hero_label": "Olympiakos",
"market_prob_pct": 37.1,
"market_team": "Omonia Aradippou",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Omonia Aradippou",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Omonia Aradippou at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Omonia Aradippou as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Omonia Aradippou",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0462,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0128,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.47,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"steam_team": "Omonia Aradippou",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Omonia Aradippou at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Omonia Aradippou as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Omonia Aradippou",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0462,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0128,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Omonia Aradippou 1.39 xG vs Olympiakos 1.21 \u2192 Omonia Aradippou 39.5%",
"Market: Omonia Aradippou ~37.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Omonia Aradippou odds \u2191 +15.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Omonia Aradippou, but the market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.34,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Omonia Aradippou",
"market_prob": 37.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.13,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.47,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Olympiakos",
"market_prob": 34.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.0,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.37,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Olympiakos",
"market_prob_pct": 34.5,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Omonia Aradippou"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Omonia Aradippou",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Omonia Aradippou 1.39 xG vs Olympiakos 1.21 \u2192 Omonia Aradippou 39.5%",
"Market: Omonia Aradippou ~37.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Omonia Aradippou odds \u2191 +15.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Omonia Aradippou, but the market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.47,
"hero_label": "Olympiakos",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Omonia Aradippou odds lengthened \u2191 +15.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Omonia Aradippou has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Omonia Aradippou \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Omonia Aradippou has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Omonia Aradippou \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Omonia Aradippou has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Olympiakos",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.34,
"edge_pp": 2.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Omonia Aradippou",
"market_prob_pct": 37.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.13,
"edge_pp": 1.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.47,
"edge_pp": -3.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Olympiakos",
"market_prob_pct": 34.5,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Omonia Aradippou \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Omonia Aradippou (37.1%).",
"Omonia Aradippou odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +15.9%, 5/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Omonia Aradippou, Market \u2192 Omonia Aradippou, while Omonia Aradippou odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.17,
"closing_odds": 2.69,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.17,
"entry_odds": 2.69,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Omonia Aradippou (15.9%, 5/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.55",
"2.38",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.55 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.55",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 38m",
"pick_team": "Omonia Aradippou",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.5,
2.55
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/9 sportsbooks on Omonia Aradippou",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Omonia Aradippou",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Omonia Aradippou while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Omonia Aradippou",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Omonia Aradippou",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Omonia Aradippou",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "olympiakos",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Olympiakos",
"away_team_id": 3415,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3415.webp",
"away_team_name": "Olympiakos",
"away_team_public_id": "0Itcmp0UvLHVLE",
"away_team_slug": "olympiakos",
"country_code": "CY",
"country_display_name": "Cyprus",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cy.svg",
"country_id": 42,
"country_name": "Cyprus",
"fixture_id": 1603569,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Cyprus",
"home_team_display_name": "Omonia Aradippou",
"home_team_id": 3416,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3416.webp",
"home_team_name": "Omonia Aradippou",
"home_team_public_id": "4lzmWYdIpkMCHB",
"home_team_slug": "omonia-aradippou",
"ht.home_team_slug": "omonia-aradippou",
"league_country": "Cyprus",
"league_country_display": "Cyprus",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen 1 Cyprus",
"league_id": 318,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/318.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen 1 Cyprus",
"league_public_id": "1KA3HMpdwwcA91",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 17:00:00",
"public_id": "3ypZvcKQ04sEz1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Larnaca",
"venue_name": "Antonis Papadopoulos Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4266,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.345,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.345,
"draw": 0.2838,
"home": 0.3712
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3302
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2951,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.0614,
"implied_prob": 0.2838,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.345,
"draw": 0.2838,
"home": 0.3712
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.287
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.434,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.345,
"draw": 0.2838,
"home": 0.3712
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3815
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": -0.0614,
"ev": -0.1653,
"implied_prob": 0.3717,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0362,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0126,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2146,
"alpha_yes": 0.2146,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0337,
"edge_yes": 0.0337,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1271,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0905,
"ev_yes": -0.0063,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0661,
"implied_no": 0.4907,
"implied_yes": 0.5093,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0905,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4812
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5188
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4812,
"p_final_yes": 0.5188,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2257,
"alpha_under": 0.2482,
"best_over_odd": 2.13,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.06,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.7,
"edge_over": 0.03,
"edge_under": -0.03,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0267,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0547,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0812,
"implied_over": 0.452,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4521,
"implied_under": 0.548,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5479,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2257,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4589
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2482,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5479,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5405
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4589,
"p_final_under": 0.5405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Omonia Aradippou at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Omonia Aradippou as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Omonia Aradippou",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Omonia Aradippou, but the model still strongly favours Omonia Aradippou.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
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"xg_calibration": {
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"deviation_pct": 3.0,
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"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -10,
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2947,
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"hero_display_pick": {
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"risk_band": "medium",
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},
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"probabilities": {
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"secondary_pick": null,
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Omonia Aradippou"
},
"top_pick": null,
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-4.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1603569,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T17:00:47.156533+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 1 Cyprus — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | AEL Limassol | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Pafos FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Aradippou | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Aris | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Apoel Nicosia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis Famagusta | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Digenis Ypsonas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 4 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 4 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 5 |
| 4 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 5 | Nea Salamis | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Apollon Limassol | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Olympiakos | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | AEL Limassol | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Pafos FC | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Omonia Aradippou | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Aris | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis Famagusta | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Digenis Ypsonas | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
