AI correctly predicted the RB Leipzig U19 win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 RB Leipzig U19 RB Leipzig U19 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (RB Leipzig U19 win 1–2).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Eintracht Frankfurt U19 1.15 — RB Leipzig U19 1.45
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result RB Leipzig U19 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
RB Leipzig U19 win · Eintracht Frankfurt U19 1–2 RB Leipzig U19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_team": "",
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"show": true,
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"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
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{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"execution_confidence": 17,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RB Leipzig U19 at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RB Leipzig U19 as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RB Leipzig U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_quality"
],
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"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
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"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +94.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +94.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +94.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+94.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0105,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30864197530864196,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3725,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+37.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (23 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 22.75,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 22.75,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.45,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.15,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.15 \u00b7 Away xG 1.45 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9425,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RB Leipzig U19 at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RB Leipzig U19 as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RB Leipzig U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +94.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +94.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +94.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+94.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0105,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30864197530864196,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3725,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+37.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Eintracht Frankfurt U19 1.15 xG vs RB Leipzig U19 1.45 \u2192 RB Leipzig U19 42.4%",
"Market: Eintracht Frankfurt U19 ~27.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Eintracht Frankfurt U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans RB Leipzig U19, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -22.75,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"market_prob": 51.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.14,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.6,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "RB Leipzig U19",
"market_prob": 27.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -26.25,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 26.25,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 25.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.0,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 71.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.0,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 28.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -22.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"market_prob_pct": 51.12,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Eintracht Frankfurt U19\u0027s win probability at 51.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 28.4%, a difference of 22.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 22.75,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "RB Leipzig U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.6,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Eintracht Frankfurt U19 1.15 xG vs RB Leipzig U19 1.45 \u2192 RB Leipzig U19 42.4%",
"Market: Eintracht Frankfurt U19 ~27.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Eintracht Frankfurt U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans RB Leipzig U19, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -22.75,
"hero_label": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 22.75,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -22.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Eintracht Frankfurt U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 22.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -22.75,
"edge_pp": -22.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"market_prob_pct": 51.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.14,
"edge_pp": 8.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.12,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.6,
"edge_pp": 14.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "RB Leipzig U19",
"market_prob_pct": 27.77,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Eintracht Frankfurt U19 (27.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 RB Leipzig U19, Market \u2192 Eintracht Frankfurt U19, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 1.5,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.5,
"pick_team": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 22.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rb-leipzig-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "RB Leipzig U19",
"away_team_id": 7924,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7924.webp",
"away_team_name": "RB Leipzig U19",
"away_team_public_id": "3Bi6PdXufzXLFa",
"away_team_slug": "rb-leipzig-u19",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1595632,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"home_team_id": 10252,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10252.webp",
"home_team_name": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19",
"home_team_public_id": "3WQ2EcaYrpyFxM",
"home_team_slug": "eintracht-frankf-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "eintracht-frankf-u19",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "U19 Bundesliga",
"league_id": 488,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/488.webp",
"league_name": "U19 Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0cG5fV5ZBAjM3S",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 09:00:00",
"public_id": "31t0vq1Nd8XMlr",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0342,
"ev": 0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2777,
"draw": 0.2112,
"home": 0.5112
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.3119
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1757,
"best_odd": 4.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0396,
"implied_prob": 0.2112,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2777,
"draw": 0.2112,
"home": 0.5112
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.2254
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3956,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0898,
"ev": -0.2585,
"implied_prob": 0.5112,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2777,
"draw": 0.2112,
"home": 0.5112
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.4213
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.24,
"edge": 0.115,
"ev": 0.3726,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"model_prob": 0.4236
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.26,
"edge": 0.0576,
"ev": 0.2453,
"implied_prob": 0.2347,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.2842,
"ev": -0.5001,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.284
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1265,
"best_no_odd": 3.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.27,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.18,
"edge_yes": -0.18,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5213,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.04,
"ev_yes": -0.3155,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1158,
"implied_no": 0.281,
"implied_yes": 0.719,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.281,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.2954
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"best_odd": 1.27,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.719,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.6963
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.2954,
"p_final_yes": 0.6963,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1512,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.25,
"best_under_odd": 3.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.22,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.5,
"edge_over": -0.2625,
"edge_under": 0.2625,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3975,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1432,
"ev_under": 0.9425,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0227,
"implied_over": 0.7445,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7415,
"implied_under": 0.2555,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2585,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.7415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7023
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2792
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7023,
"p_final_under": 0.2792,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9425,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.9425,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9425,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RB Leipzig U19 at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RB Leipzig U19 as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RB Leipzig U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +94.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +94.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +94.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+94.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Eintracht Frankfurt U19, but the model still strongly favours RB Leipzig U19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0105,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30864197530864196,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3725,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+37.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0342,
"ev": 0.0105,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "RB Leipzig U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0144,
"market_prob": 0.281,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.461,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.281,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.2954
},
"p_final": 0.2954,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.04,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1265,
"best_odd": 1.27,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.1158,
"implied_prob": 0.719,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.6963
}
},
"edge": 0.18,
"ev": 0.5213,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.281,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.2585,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1432,
"implied_prob": 0.7415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7023
},
"p_final": 0.2792,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0227,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2792
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2625,
"ev": 0.9425,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2555,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1595632,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.9425,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4236,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.284
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5213,
"implied_prob": 0.281,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.461,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5213,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.461,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "RB Leipzig U19",
"home": "Eintracht Frankfurt U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.341751,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9425,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0105,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.24,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30864197530864196,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3725,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+37.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1595632,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T08:59:50.452368+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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