Previsões / Copa do Mundo 2026 / Portugal vs Croácia

Portugal vs Croácia

Group K
Portugal Portugal
Jul 02, 2026 - 23:00
2 1.44
1 1.26
Croácia Croácia

Betting Signal

Modelo diz
Portugal 39.8%
Status
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The statistical model leans Portugal (39.8%).

The model and market both lean Portugal, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Croácia remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

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Previsão de IA
Portugal 39.8%
Draw 28.9%
Croácia 31.4%

Gerado a partir de simulação de Poisson ajustada por Elo. Não são probabilidades de casas de apostas.

Mostrar dados completos do modelo
Probabilidades de linhas Poisson
Linha Mais Menos
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Expectativas do jogo
Mais de 2,5 gols
50.6%
Balanced
Menos de 2,5 gols
49.4%
Ambos marcam
56.2%
Balanced
Clean sheet provável
43.8%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 56.2% · No 43.8% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Placares mais prováveis
Placar Probabilidade
1-1 13.8%
2-1 8.8%
0-0 8.3%
1-0 8.1%
1-2 7.7%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.8% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase de Partida: Finished

Ciclo de vida de decisão

Estágio atual: Closing unavailable

  1. Predição gerada
  2. Mercado comparado
    Entrada Pendente
  3. Validação aprovada
  4. Fechamento gravado
    Fechando Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
  5. CLV avaliado
    CLV Pendente Requires closing line after full time
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Jogos Group K