The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Red Bull Salzburg at 60.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Red Bull Salzburg Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Red Bull Salzburg; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · SV Ried 1.25 — Red Bull Salzburg 2.28
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (69%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · SV Ried 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f5290303c6e1ce286fb13bd34f6f15f8e4df5393b3b0a538de817bf4d77dfed3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.2172,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.1808,
"away_predicted_xg": 2.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.602,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.602,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.349,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.651,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2172,
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"fair_odds_away": 1.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 1.66,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.6,
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"fair_odds_home": 5.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 5.53,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.1808,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.1808,
"over_25_prob": 0.685,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.315
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Red Bull Salzburg",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Red Bull Salzburg"
},
"away_xg": 2.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0242,
"edge_gap": 0.3848,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6263,
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"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 60.2,
"draw": 21.7,
"home": 18.1
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.54
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.54,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Red Bull Salzburg Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.6,
"market_odds": 1.54,
"model_odds": 1.66,
"overround": 3.7,
"prob_edge": -4.7,
"value_pct": -7.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 89.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 34.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 65.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 65.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.28,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "SV Ried or Draw",
"prob": 39.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "SV Ried or Red Bull Salzburg",
"prob": 78.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Red Bull Salzburg",
"prob": 81.9
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Red Bull Salzburg",
"pick_prob": 81.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 60.2,
"draw_pct": 21.7,
"home_pct": 18.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Red Bull Salzburg"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.53,
"away_avg_scored": 2.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 68.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 68.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.53,
"under_prob": 31.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 12.2,
"implied_prob": 16.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "SV Ried Win",
"model_prob": 18.1,
"odds": 6.2
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 62.63,
"draw": 21.82,
"home": 15.56
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 17:29:39",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 17:02:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "SV Ried",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.56,
"gap_pp": 2.52,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 18.07
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.82,
"gap_pp": -0.09,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 21.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.63,
"gap_pp": -2.42,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 60.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.61,
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"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.39,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
"closing": 4.42,
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},
{
"closing": 1.54,
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},
{
"closing": 1.51,
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},
{
"closing": 2.64,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"label": "1-2",
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"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.095,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
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},
"top5": [
{
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"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"market_prob": 0.6338,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.685,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5598,
"best_odd": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.6338,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"p_final": 0.6624
},
"p_final": 0.6624,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0035,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4071,
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"p_final": 0.3454
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0344,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.4,
"text": "+3.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1684,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0344,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 68.5,
"sort_key": 10030.96,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 31.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"market_prob": 0.599,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.651,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4066,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"p_final": 0.3799
},
"p_final": 0.6281,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0025,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.651,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1624,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.2,
"text": "-16.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0286,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0286,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 34.9,
"sort_key": 5222.88,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 65.1
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0571,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0055,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"sort_key": 1798.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 9.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"alert_team": "SV Ried",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.52,
"hero_label": "SV Ried",
"market_prob_pct": 62.6,
"market_team": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"model_prob_pct": 60.2,
"model_team": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0344,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1204,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Red Bull Salzburg at 60.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Red Bull Salzburg as the value side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Red Bull Salzburg \u00b7 decimal odds ~6.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561926 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22486.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6493506493506493,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 68.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 69%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.03"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.03
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "13/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9285714285714286,
"evidence": {
"score": 100,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (69%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.52,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.28,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 69.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.28,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 2.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +69%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"steam_team": "SV Ried",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0344,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1204,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Red Bull Salzburg at 60.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Red Bull Salzburg as the value side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Red Bull Salzburg \u00b7 decimal odds ~6.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561926 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22486.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6493506493506493,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 68.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 69%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.03"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.03
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SV Ried 1.25 xG vs Red Bull Salzburg 2.28 \u2192 Red Bull Salzburg 60.2%",
"Market: Red Bull Salzburg ~62.6% implied",
"Market Drift: SV Ried odds \u2191 +27.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Red Bull Salzburg projects stronger on expected goals (+1.03 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.52,
"fair_prob": 18.08,
"label": "SV Ried",
"market_prob": 15.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.1,
"fair_prob": 21.72,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.43,
"fair_prob": 60.2,
"label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"market_prob": 62.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.31,
"fair_prob": 68.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.31,
"fair_prob": 31.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.21,
"fair_prob": 65.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.21,
"fair_prob": 34.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.08,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "SV Ried",
"market_prob_pct": 15.56,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "SV Ried"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 62.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 60.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Red Bull Salzburg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SV Ried 1.25 xG vs Red Bull Salzburg 2.28 \u2192 Red Bull Salzburg 60.2%",
"Market: Red Bull Salzburg ~62.6% implied",
"Market Drift: SV Ried odds \u2191 +27.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Red Bull Salzburg projects stronger on expected goals (+1.03 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.52,
"hero_label": "SV Ried",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "SV Ried odds lengthened \u2191 +27.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on SV Ried.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on SV Ried."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on SV Ried (\u2191 +27.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/14) supports the current market view on SV Ried."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 38.5 pp (at 60.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 38.5,
"max_prob_pct": 60.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "SV Ried",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.52,
"edge_pp": 2.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.08,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "SV Ried",
"market_prob_pct": 15.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.1,
"edge_pp": -0.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.72,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.43,
"edge_pp": -2.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"market_prob_pct": 62.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on SV Ried.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Red Bull Salzburg (62.6%).",
"However, SV Ried has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +27.8%, 13/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Red Bull Salzburg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 16.13,
"closing_odds": 6.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 16.13,
"entry_odds": 6.2,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +32.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 32.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 27.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 39m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"13/14 books lengthened SV Ried together (27.8% drift, score 67) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.20",
"5.35",
"4.50"
],
"display": "6.20 \u2192 4.27 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 39m",
"pick_team": "SV Ried",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.27"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
6.2,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: SV Ried odds \u2191 +27.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "SV Ried",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: SV Ried odds \u2191 +27.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "SV Ried",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "SV Ried",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "SV Ried",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "red-bull-salzburg",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"away_team_id": 571,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/571.webp",
"away_team_name": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"away_team_public_id": "2XQ2OtBWB9tMTc",
"away_team_slug": "red-bull-salzburg",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1561926,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "SV Ried",
"home_team_id": 1028,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1028.webp",
"home_team_name": "SV Ried",
"home_team_public_id": "5RnuRIO7CxPV78",
"home_team_slug": "ried",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ried",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Bundesliga \u00c1o",
"league_id": 218,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/218.webp",
"league_name": "Bundesliga \u00c1o",
"league_public_id": "3drenzmm9yrMLY",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 17:30:00",
"public_id": "11CO9Au1kCsQBn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "SV Ried",
"venue_name": "Innviertel Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5782,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6263,
"draw": 0.2182,
"home": 0.1556
},
"model_prob": 0.602,
"p_final": 0.6122
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"best_odd": 4.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0364,
"implied_prob": 0.2182,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6263,
"draw": 0.2182,
"home": 0.1556
},
"model_prob": 0.2173,
"p_final": 0.218
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1925,
"best_odd": 6.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0055,
"implied_prob": 0.1556,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6263,
"draw": 0.2182,
"home": 0.1556
},
"model_prob": 0.1807,
"p_final": 0.1604
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0473,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.6494,
"model_prob": 0.602
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.42,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.2262,
"model_prob": 0.2173
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 6.2,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.1613,
"model_prob": 0.1807
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4066,
"alpha_yes": 0.559,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0521,
"edge_yes": 0.0521,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1624,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1263,
"ev_yes": 0.0286,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0328,
"implied_no": 0.4011,
"implied_yes": 0.5989,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4066,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"p_final": 0.3799
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.651,
"p_final": 0.6281
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.3799,
"p_final_yes": 0.6281,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5598,
"alpha_under": 0.4071,
"best_over_odd": 1.51,
"best_under_odd": 2.64,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.465,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.535,
"edge_over": 0.0531,
"edge_under": -0.0531,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0344,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0295,
"ev_under": -0.1684,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1244,
"implied_over": 0.6319,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6338,
"implied_under": 0.3681,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3662,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5598,
"best_odd": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.6338,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"p_final": 0.6624
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4071,
"best_odd": 2.535,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1244,
"implied_prob": 0.3662,
"model_prob": 0.315,
"p_final": 0.3454
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6624,
"p_final_under": 0.3454,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.53,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0344,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1204,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0344,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0344,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1204,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Red Bull Salzburg at 60.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Red Bull Salzburg as the value side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Red Bull Salzburg \u00b7 decimal odds ~6.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561926 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22486.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6493506493506493,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 68.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 69%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.03"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.03
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.651,
"draw_prob": 0.2173,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.602,
"over_prob": 0.685,
"total_xg": 3.53,
"under_prob": 0.315,
"xg_diff": 1.03
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0344,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6319,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.685,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.602,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Red Bull Salzburg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"market_prob": 0.599,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.651,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4066,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"p_final": 0.3799
},
"p_final": 0.6281,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.651,
"p_final": 0.6281
}
},
"edge": 0.0521,
"ev": 0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.651,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5598,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"market_prob": 0.6338,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.685,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5598,
"best_odd": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.6338,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"p_final": 0.6624
},
"p_final": 0.6624,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4071,
"best_odd": 2.535,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1244,
"implied_prob": 0.3662,
"model_prob": 0.315,
"p_final": 0.3454
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0531,
"ev": 0.0344,
"implied_prob": 0.6319,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1561926,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0344,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.602,
"draw": 0.2173,
"home": 0.1807
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"home": "SV Ried"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6493506493506493,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561926,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T19:22:43.125091+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Bundesliga Áo — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | SV Ried | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | WSG Tirol | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | LASK Linz | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 16 |
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 17 |
| 4 | SV Ried | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 5 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | WSG Tirol | 7 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 7 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 13.9 | 6.0 | +7.9 | 17 |
| 2 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 12.9 | 5.0 | +7.9 | 18 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 7 | 12.1 | 4.7 | +7.4 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 10.0 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 11 |
| 5 | SCR Altach | 7 | 8.0 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 6 | SV Ried | 7 | 9.4 | 9.7 | -0.3 | 8 |
| 7 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 9.9 | 11.5 | -1.6 | 8 |
| 8 | WSG Tirol | 7 | 7.1 | 9.9 | -2.8 | 8 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 7 | 7.6 | 11.4 | -3.8 | 8 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 5.1 | 10.5 | -5.4 | 5 |
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 7.3 | 13.0 | -5.7 | 8 |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 4.4 | 11.0 | -6.6 | 7 |
