The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Red Bull Salzburg at 60.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Red Bull Salzburg Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Red Bull Salzburg; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Ried 1.25 — Red Bull Salzburg 2.28
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (69%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Ried 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f5290303c6e1ce286fb13bd34f6f15f8e4df5393b3b0a538de817bf4d77dfed3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.602,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2172,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.1808,
"away_predicted_xg": 2.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.602,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.602,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.349,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.651,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2172,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2172,
"fair_odds_away": 1.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 1.66,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.6,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.6,
"fair_odds_home": 5.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 5.53,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.1808,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.1808,
"over_25_prob": 0.685,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.315
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Red Bull Salzburg",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Red Bull Salzburg"
},
"away_xg": 2.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0242,
"edge_gap": 0.3848,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6263,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 60.2,
"draw": 21.7,
"home": 18.1
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.54
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.54,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Red Bull Salzburg Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.6,
"market_odds": 1.54,
"model_odds": 1.66,
"overround": 3.7,
"prob_edge": -4.7,
"value_pct": -7.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 89.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 34.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 65.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 65.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.28,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ried or Draw",
"prob": 39.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ried or Red Bull Salzburg",
"prob": 78.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Red Bull Salzburg",
"prob": 81.9
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Red Bull Salzburg",
"pick_prob": 81.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 60.2,
"draw_pct": 21.7,
"home_pct": 18.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Red Bull Salzburg"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.53,
"away_avg_scored": 2.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 68.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 68.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.53,
"under_prob": 31.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 12.2,
"implied_prob": 16.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ried Win",
"model_prob": 18.1,
"odds": 6.2
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 62.63,
"draw": 21.82,
"home": 15.56
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 17:29:39",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 17:02:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ried",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.56,
"gap_pp": 2.52,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 18.07
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.82,
"gap_pp": -0.09,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 21.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.63,
"gap_pp": -2.42,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 60.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.61,
"gap_pp": 4.89,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 68.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.39,
"gap_pp": -4.89,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 31.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 6.2,
"early": 6.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 15.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 15.56,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.42,
"early": 4.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.82,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.63,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.61,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.64,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.39,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.3,
"ev": -0.1925,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-2",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.095,
"model_prob_pct": 9.5,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5598,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"market_prob": 0.6338,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.685,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5598,
"best_odd": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.6338,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"p_final": 0.6624
},
"p_final": 0.6624,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0035,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4071,
"best_odd": 2.535,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1244,
"implied_prob": 0.3662,
"model_prob": 0.315,
"p_final": 0.3454
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0344,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.4,
"text": "+3.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1684,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0344,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 68.5,
"sort_key": 10030.96,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 31.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"market_prob": 0.599,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.651,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4066,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"p_final": 0.3799
},
"p_final": 0.6281,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0025,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.651,
"p_final": 0.6281
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1624,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.2,
"text": "-16.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0286,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0286,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 34.9,
"sort_key": 5222.88,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 65.1
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0571,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0055,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"sort_key": 1798.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 9.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"alert_team": "Ried",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.52,
"hero_label": "Ried",
"market_prob_pct": 62.6,
"market_team": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"model_prob_pct": 60.2,
"model_team": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0344,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1204,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Red Bull Salzburg at 60.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Red Bull Salzburg as the value side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Red Bull Salzburg \u00b7 decimal odds ~6.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561926 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22486.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6493506493506493,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 68.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 69%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.03"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.03
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "13/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9285714285714286,
"evidence": {
"score": 100,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (69%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.52,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.28,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 69.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.28,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 2.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +69%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"steam_team": "Ried",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0344,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1204,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Red Bull Salzburg at 60.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Red Bull Salzburg as the value side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Red Bull Salzburg \u00b7 decimal odds ~6.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561926 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22486.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6493506493506493,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 68.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 69%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.03"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.03
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ried 1.25 xG vs Red Bull Salzburg 2.28 \u2192 Red Bull Salzburg 60.2%",
"Market: Red Bull Salzburg ~62.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Ried odds \u2191 +27.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Red Bull Salzburg projects stronger on expected goals (+1.03 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.52,
"fair_prob": 18.08,
"label": "Ried",
"market_prob": 15.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.1,
"fair_prob": 21.72,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.43,
"fair_prob": 60.2,
"label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"market_prob": 62.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.31,
"fair_prob": 68.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.31,
"fair_prob": 31.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.21,
"fair_prob": 65.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.21,
"fair_prob": 34.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.08,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ried",
"market_prob_pct": 15.56,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Ried"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 62.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 60.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Red Bull Salzburg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ried 1.25 xG vs Red Bull Salzburg 2.28 \u2192 Red Bull Salzburg 60.2%",
"Market: Red Bull Salzburg ~62.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Ried odds \u2191 +27.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Red Bull Salzburg projects stronger on expected goals (+1.03 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.52,
"hero_label": "Ried",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Ried odds lengthened \u2191 +27.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ried.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ried."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Ried (\u2191 +27.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/14) supports the current market view on Ried."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 38.5 pp (at 60.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 38.5,
"max_prob_pct": 60.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Ried",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.52,
"edge_pp": 2.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.08,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ried",
"market_prob_pct": 15.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.1,
"edge_pp": -0.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.72,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.43,
"edge_pp": -2.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"market_prob_pct": 62.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ried.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Red Bull Salzburg (62.6%).",
"However, Ried has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +27.8%, 13/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Red Bull Salzburg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 16.13,
"closing_odds": 6.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 16.13,
"entry_odds": 6.2,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +32.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 32.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 27.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 39m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"13/14 books lengthened Ried together (27.8% drift, score 67) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.20",
"5.35",
"4.50"
],
"display": "6.20 \u2192 4.27 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 39m",
"pick_team": "Ried",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.27"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
6.2,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Ried odds \u2191 +27.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Ried",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Ried odds \u2191 +27.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ried",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Ried",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Ried",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "red-bull-salzburg",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"away_team_id": 571,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/571.webp",
"away_team_name": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"away_team_public_id": "2XQ2OtBWB9tMTc",
"away_team_slug": "red-bull-salzburg",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1561926,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Ried",
"home_team_id": 1028,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1028.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ried",
"home_team_public_id": "5RnuRIO7CxPV78",
"home_team_slug": "ried",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ried",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Bundesliga Austria",
"league_id": 218,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/218.webp",
"league_name": "Bundesliga Austria",
"league_public_id": "3drenzmm9yrMLY",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 17:30:00",
"public_id": "11CO9Au1kCsQBn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Ried",
"venue_name": "Innviertel Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5782,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6263,
"draw": 0.2182,
"home": 0.1556
},
"model_prob": 0.602,
"p_final": 0.6122
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"best_odd": 4.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0364,
"implied_prob": 0.2182,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6263,
"draw": 0.2182,
"home": 0.1556
},
"model_prob": 0.2173,
"p_final": 0.218
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1925,
"best_odd": 6.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0055,
"implied_prob": 0.1556,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6263,
"draw": 0.2182,
"home": 0.1556
},
"model_prob": 0.1807,
"p_final": 0.1604
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0473,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.6494,
"model_prob": 0.602
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.42,
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.2262,
"model_prob": 0.2173
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 6.2,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.1613,
"model_prob": 0.1807
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4066,
"alpha_yes": 0.559,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0521,
"edge_yes": 0.0521,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1624,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1263,
"ev_yes": 0.0286,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0328,
"implied_no": 0.4011,
"implied_yes": 0.5989,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4066,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"p_final": 0.3799
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.651,
"p_final": 0.6281
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.3799,
"p_final_yes": 0.6281,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5598,
"alpha_under": 0.4071,
"best_over_odd": 1.51,
"best_under_odd": 2.64,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.465,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.535,
"edge_over": 0.0531,
"edge_under": -0.0531,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0344,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0295,
"ev_under": -0.1684,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1244,
"implied_over": 0.6319,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6338,
"implied_under": 0.3681,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3662,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5598,
"best_odd": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.6338,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"p_final": 0.6624
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4071,
"best_odd": 2.535,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1244,
"implied_prob": 0.3662,
"model_prob": 0.315,
"p_final": 0.3454
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6624,
"p_final_under": 0.3454,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.53,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0344,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1204,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0344,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0344,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1204,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Red Bull Salzburg at 60.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Red Bull Salzburg as the value side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Red Bull Salzburg \u00b7 decimal odds ~6.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561926 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22486.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Bull Salzburg).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6493506493506493,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 68.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 69%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.03"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.03
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.651,
"draw_prob": 0.2173,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.602,
"over_prob": 0.685,
"total_xg": 3.53,
"under_prob": 0.315,
"xg_diff": 1.03
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0344,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6319,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.685,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.602,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Red Bull Salzburg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"market_prob": 0.599,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.651,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4066,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"p_final": 0.3799
},
"p_final": 0.6281,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.559,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.651,
"p_final": 0.6281
}
},
"edge": 0.0521,
"ev": 0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.651,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5598,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"market_prob": 0.6338,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.685,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5598,
"best_odd": 1.465,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.6338,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"p_final": 0.6624
},
"p_final": 0.6624,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4071,
"best_odd": 2.535,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1244,
"implied_prob": 0.3662,
"model_prob": 0.315,
"p_final": 0.3454
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0531,
"ev": 0.0344,
"implied_prob": 0.6319,
"model_prob": 0.685,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1561926,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0344,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.602,
"draw": 0.2173,
"home": 0.1807
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Red Bull Salzburg",
"home": "Ried"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.54,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6493506493506493,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0729,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561926,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T19:22:43.125091+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Bundesliga Austria — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Ried | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | LASK Linz | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 16 |
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 17 |
| 4 | Ried | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 5 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | WSG Wattens | 7 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 7 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 13.9 | 6.0 | +7.9 | 17 |
| 2 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 12.9 | 5.0 | +7.9 | 18 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 7 | 12.1 | 4.7 | +7.4 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 10.0 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 11 |
| 5 | SCR Altach | 7 | 8.0 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 6 | Ried | 7 | 9.4 | 9.7 | -0.3 | 8 |
| 7 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 9.9 | 11.5 | -1.6 | 8 |
| 8 | WSG Wattens | 7 | 7.1 | 9.9 | -2.8 | 8 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 7 | 7.6 | 11.4 | -3.8 | 8 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 5.1 | 10.5 | -5.4 | 5 |
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 7.3 | 13.0 | -5.7 | 8 |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 4.4 | 11.0 | -6.6 | 7 |
