The model missed the final outcome (Universitario Popayán win 4–1).
The model had projected Patriotas Boyacá at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Patriotas Boyacá Universitario Popayán ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Không đúng
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Patriotas Boyacá; match finished Universitario Popayán
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Universitario Popayán win 4–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Universitario Popayán 1.28 — Patriotas Boyacá 1.32
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Universitario Popayán win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Universitario Popayán win · Universitario Popayán 4–1 Patriotas Boyacá
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Universitario Popay\u00e1n or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
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},
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"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
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{
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"label": "Away",
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n or Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
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"match_winner": {
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"lean_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"is_value": false,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 21:59:14",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 21:29:44",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"largest_move_kind": null,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
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"text": "+6.0%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"no": {
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},
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"value_side": "yes",
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1491,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.9,
"text": "-14.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0192,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0192,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5215.36,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0302,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.0,
"text": "-3.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0302,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.0,
"text": "-3.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"sort_key": 1792.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"alert_team": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.41,
"hero_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"market_team": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35211267605633806,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.41,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"steam_team": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35211267605633806,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Universitario Popay\u00e1n 1.28 xG vs Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 1.32 \u2192 Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 36.1%",
"Market: Universitario Popay\u00e1n ~32.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Universitario Popay\u00e1n \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1, but sharp money moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.48,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"market_prob": 35.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.94,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.41,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"market_prob": 32.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Universitario Popay\u00e1n 1.28 xG vs Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 1.32 \u2192 Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 36.1%",
"Market: Universitario Popay\u00e1n ~32.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Universitario Popay\u00e1n \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1, but sharp money moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.41,
"hero_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n odds shortened \u2193 -3.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Universitario Popay\u00e1n, with odds shortening by 3.8%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Universitario Popay\u00e1n, with odds shortening by 3.8%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Universitario Popay\u00e1n has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.8%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.48,
"edge_pp": -1.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"market_prob_pct": 35.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.94,
"edge_pp": -1.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.41,
"edge_pp": 3.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Universitario Popay\u00e1n (32.7%).",
"Universitario Popay\u00e1n has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.8%, 1/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Patriotas Boyac\u00e1, Market \u2192 Universitario Popay\u00e1n, Recent sharp money \u2192 Universitario Popay\u00e1n.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.21,
"closing_odds": 2.84,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.21,
"entry_odds": 2.84,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 9h 36m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Universitario Popay\u00e1n (swing 2.60 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.50) \u2014 net 3.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.60",
"2.55",
"2.50"
],
"display": "2.60 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 9h 36m",
"pick_team": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.6,
2.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"summary": "Market moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_team_name": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "patriotas-1140",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"away_team_id": 1140,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1140.webp",
"away_team_name": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"away_team_public_id": "1RxrwhltDiuGXW",
"away_team_slug": "patriotas-1140",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549644,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"home_team_id": 1460,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1460.webp",
"home_team_name": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n",
"home_team_public_id": "1VYOeqPSura9sS",
"home_team_slug": "popayan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "popayan",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Colombia",
"league_id": 240,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/240.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1UzUWXxQJJ2nW3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 22:00:00",
"public_id": "1Dax7KIBjyk4va",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cali",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4271,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.327,
"draw": 0.3159,
"home": 0.3572
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3415
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4371,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.096,
"implied_prob": 0.3159,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.327,
"draw": 0.3159,
"home": 0.3572
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3075
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.3572,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.327,
"draw": 0.3159,
"home": 0.3572
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3507
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": 0.0251,
"implied_prob": 0.3521,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0435,
"ev": -0.1278,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0422,
"ev": -0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2098,
"alpha_yes": 0.2098,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.045,
"edge_yes": 0.045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1491,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1023,
"ev_yes": 0.0192,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0677,
"implied_no": 0.5,
"implied_yes": 0.5,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4906,
"p_final_yes": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2085,
"alpha_under": 0.2294,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0484,
"edge_under": -0.0484,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0999,
"implied_over": 0.4336,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4332,
"implied_under": 0.5664,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5668,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4433
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5556
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4433,
"p_final_under": 0.5556,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Patriotas Boyac\u00e1 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universitario Popay\u00e1n, but the model still strongly favours Patriotas Boyac\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35211267605633806,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4906
},
"p_final": 0.5094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0677,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5094
}
},
"edge": 0.045,
"ev": 0.0192,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.4332,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4433
},
"p_final": 0.4433,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5556
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0484,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549644,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Patriotas Boyac\u00e1",
"home": "Universitario Popay\u00e1n"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35211267605633806,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.025,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549644,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T21:59:16.867098+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Universitario Popayán & Patriotas Boyacá!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera B Colombia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 60 |
| 2 | Envigado | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 57 |
| 3 | Quindio | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 57 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 35 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 56 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 |
| 7 | Independiente Yumbo | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Bogotá FC | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 39 |
| 9 | Barranquilla | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 38 |
| 10 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 11 | Patriotas Boyacá | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 35 |
| 12 | Universitario Popayán | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31 |
| 13 | Orsomarso SC | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 27 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 24 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 27 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 22 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 35 | 55 | 41 | +14 | 56 |
| 2 | Envigado | 35 | 47 | 32 | +15 | 57 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 33 | 47 | 33 | +14 | 54 |
| 4 | Internacional Palmira | 33 | 41 | 29 | +12 | 60 |
| 5 | Barranquilla | 33 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Quindio | 33 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 57 |
| 7 | Tigres FC | 33 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 46 |
| 8 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 27 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 36 |
| 9 | Universitario Popayán | 26 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 | Patriotas Boyacá | 27 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 35 |
| 11 | Independiente Yumbo | 27 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 43 |
| 12 | Bogotá FC | 33 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | Depor FC | 27 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 24 |
| 14 | Real Santander | 27 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 22 |
| 15 | Orsomarso SC | 26 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 27 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 27 | 18 | 43 | -25 | 21 |
