Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Australia. Victoria Premier League 2 / Kingston City vs Moreland City

Audit Ramalan: Kingston City vs Moreland City Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Jun 12, 2026 - 09:45
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%

The model missed the final outcome (Kingston City win 2–1).

The model had projected Moreland City at 39.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan F

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Moreland City Kingston City ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Kingston City win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Jun 12, 2026 · 12:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kingston City 1.32 — Moreland City 1.28
  2. Jun 12, 2026 · 09:45 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Kingston City win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Observe
Keputusan Sejarah No Primary Bet
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 06:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1558382

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kingston City win · Kingston City 2–1 Moreland City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.3933,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2782,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.3285,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3933,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3933,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
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      "fair_odds_away": 2.54,
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      "home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3285,
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      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
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      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Moreland City"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.28,
    "betting_insight": {
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        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
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          "draw": 27.8,
          "home": 32.9
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.72
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      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.72,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Moreland City Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.94,
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        "model_odds": 2.54,
        "overround": 12.5,
        "prob_edge": -18.8,
        "value_pct": -32.3,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 14,
        "away_score_rate": 72.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 9,
        "home_played": 15,
        "home_score_rate": 73.3,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.28,
        "home_expected": 1.32,
        "scores": [
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 0,
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "prob": 9.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.3
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Kingston City or Draw",
            "prob": 60.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Kingston City or Moreland City",
            "prob": 72.2
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Moreland City",
            "prob": 67.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Kingston City or Moreland City",
        "pick_prob": 72.2
      },
      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 27.8,
        "home_pct": 32.9,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Moreland City"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "low",
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        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
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        "edge": 12.5,
        "implied_prob": 29.2,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Kingston City Win",
        "model_prob": 32.9,
        "odds": 3.42
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Moreland City",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Kingston City",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 25.99,
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        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 22.33,
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          "model_pct": 27.77
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        {
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          "closing_implied_pct": 62.56,
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 37.44,
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      ],
      "movement": [
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          "closing": 3.42,
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          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 3.98,
          "early": 3.98,
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        {
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        {
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      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 14.4,
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      }
    },
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.32,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.277,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -27.7,
          "text": "-27.7%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.3727,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 37.3,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "tier": "best",
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
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        "ev_no_display": {
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          "text": "+21.0%"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.2043,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -20.4,
          "text": "-20.4%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.2103,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "sort_key": 10189.27,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.2148,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -21.5,
          "text": "-21.5%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5168,
        "max_ev": -0.0478,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -4.8,
          "text": "-4.8%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3935,
        "side_label": "Moreland City",
        "sort_key": 1788.05,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "7/10",
        "alert_breadth_note": "7/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +13.8%",
        "alert_team": "Kingston City",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 12.4,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -12.35,
        "hero_label": "Moreland City",
        "market_prob_pct": 51.7,
        "market_team": "Moreland City",
        "model_prob_pct": 39.3,
        "model_team": "Moreland City",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.86,
          "fair_prob": 32.85,
          "label": "Kingston City",
          "market_prob": 25.99,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.49,
          "fair_prob": 27.82,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 22.33,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -12.35,
          "fair_prob": 39.33,
          "label": "Moreland City",
          "market_prob": 51.68,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.07,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 64.27,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 16.07,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 35.73,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.47,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 63.97,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.47,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 36.03,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -12.35,
        "fair_prob_pct": 39.33,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Moreland City",
        "market_prob_pct": 51.68,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Kingston City"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 12.35,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Moreland City",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 51.7,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.3,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Moreland City, but the market prices them higher (51.7% vs model 39.3%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -12.35,
        "hero_label": "Moreland City",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Kingston City odds lengthened \u2191 +13.8%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Kingston City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Moreland City than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Drift away from Kingston City \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Moreland City than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, Kingston City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Kingston City \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Moreland City more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Kingston City has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (7/10) supports the current market view on Kingston City."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 12.35,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.5 pp (at 39.3%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 6.5,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.3,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.86,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Kingston City",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.99,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 5.49,
            "fair_prob_pct": 27.82,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 22.33,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -12.35,
            "fair_prob_pct": 39.33,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Moreland City",
            "market_prob_pct": 51.68,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Kingston City \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Moreland City (51.7%).",
          "However, Kingston City has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +13.8%, 7/10).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Moreland City, Market \u2192 Moreland City, Recent sharp money \u2192 Kingston City.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 58.14,
        "closing_odds": 1.72,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 58.14,
        "entry_odds": 1.72,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 7,
        "books_total": 10,
        "breadth_display": "7/10",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.7,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
        "move_pct_abs": 13.8,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Kingston City (13.8%, 7/10) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.70 \u2192 3.05 \u2192 3.70",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
          "pick_team": "Kingston City",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.70"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.05"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.70"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,11.2 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.25,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Kingston City \u2191 +13.8% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Kingston City",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Kingston City \u2191 +13.8% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "7/10",
        "current_odds": 3.7,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
        "open_odds": 3.25,
        "pick_team": "Kingston City",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_team_name": "Kingston City",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 12.3,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 16785,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16785.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Moreland City",
      "country_code": "AU",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
      "country_name": "Australia",
      "fixture_id": 1541315,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Australia",
      "home_team_id": 3806,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3806.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Kingston City",
      "league_country": "Australia",
      "league_id": 1226,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1226.webp",
      "league_name": "Victoria Premier League 2",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 09:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4891,
            "best_odd": 1.72,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0603,
            "ev": -0.2148,
            "implied_prob": 0.5168,
            "model_prob": 0.3935,
            "p_final": 0.4565
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2756,
            "best_odd": 3.98,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.015,
            "ev": -0.0516,
            "implied_prob": 0.2233,
            "model_prob": 0.2777,
            "p_final": 0.2383
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.269,
            "best_odd": 3.42,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0185,
            "ev": -0.0478,
            "implied_prob": 0.2599,
            "model_prob": 0.3288,
            "p_final": 0.2784
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.66,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.46,
          "edge_no": 0.0947,
          "edge_yes": -0.0947,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.2103,
          "ev_yes": -0.2043,
          "implied_no": 0.3603,
          "implied_yes": 0.6397,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.5,
          "best_under_odd": 2.65,
          "edge_over": -0.1607,
          "edge_under": 0.1607,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.277,
          "ev_under": 0.3727,
          "implied_over": 0.6427,
          "implied_under": 0.3573,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3727,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2777,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3935,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.04
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0603,
          "ev": -0.2148,
          "implied_prob": 0.5168,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3935,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Moreland City"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0947,
          "ev": 0.2103,
          "implied_prob": 0.3603,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1607,
          "ev": 0.3727,
          "implied_prob": 0.3573,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1541315,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3727,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3935,
        "draw": 0.2777,
        "home": 0.3288
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2103,
        "implied_prob": 0.3603,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.455,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.2103,
          "implied_prob": 0.3603,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Moreland City",
        "home": "Kingston City"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.193059,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3727,
        "implied_prob": 0.3573,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1541315,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T12:25:52.567586+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Victoria Premier League 2 Victoria Premier League 2 — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Malvern 26 18 2 6 56
2 Goulburn Valley Suns 26 17 4 5 55
3 Bayside Argonauts 26 15 5 6 50
4 Essendon Royals SC 26 15 3 8 48
5 Keilor Park 26 14 2 10 44
6 Box Hill 26 11 7 8 40
7 Whittlesea United 26 9 11 6 38
8 Springvale 26 9 5 12 32
9 Eastern Lions 26 7 9 10 30
10 Kingston City 26 9 3 14 30
11 Nunawading 26 8 5 13 29
12 Werribee City 26 6 6 14 24
13 Altona City 26 3 8 15 17
14 Moreland City 26 2 8 16 14
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Malvern 26 66 33 +33 56
2 Essendon Royals SC 26 63 42 +21 48
3 Goulburn Valley Suns 26 59 35 +24 55
4 Whittlesea United 26 49 31 +18 38
5 Bayside Argonauts 26 47 32 +15 50
6 Eastern Lions 26 43 43 0 30
7 Keilor Park 26 39 37 +2 44
8 Box Hill 26 37 32 +5 40
9 Werribee City 26 37 50 -13 24
10 Kingston City 26 37 55 -18 30
11 Moreland City 26 34 73 -39 14
12 Springvale 26 32 46 -14 32
13 Nunawading 26 29 44 -15 29
14 Altona City 26 25 44 -19 17