Prédictions / Coupe du monde 2026 / Pays-Bas vs Suède

Pays-Bas vs Suède

Group F
Pays-Bas Pays-Bas
Jun 20, 2026 - 17:00
5 1.75
1 0.95
Suède Suède

Betting Signal

Le modèle dit
Pays-Bas 54.6%
Statut
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The statistical model leans Pays-Bas (54.6%).

The model leans Pays-Bas, with modest separation from other outcomes. Monitor market movement before kickoff.

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Prévisions IA
Pays-Bas 54.6%
Draw 26.4%
Suède 19.0%

Généré à partir d'une simulation de Poisson ajustée par Elo. Pas les cotes des bookmakers.

Afficher les données complètes du modèle
Probabilités de lignes Poisson
Ligne Plus Moins
0.5 91.8% 8.2%
1.5 76.6% 23.4%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Attentes du match
Plus de 2,5 buts
50.6%
Balanced
Moins de 2,5 buts
49.4%
Les deux équipes marquent
52.2%
Balanced
Clean sheet probable
47.8%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 52.2% · No 47.8% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Scores les plus probables
Score Probabilité
1-1 12.6%
1-0 10.3%
2-0 10.2%
2-1 9.8%
0-0 8.2%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.6% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Phase de correspondance: Finished

Cycle de vie des décisions

Stade actuel: Closing unavailable

  1. Prédiction générée
  2. Comparaison du marché
    Entrée En attente
  3. Validation réussie
  4. Clôture enregistrée
    Clôture Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
  5. CLV évalué
    CLV En attente Requires closing line after full time
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Matchs Group F