Prédictions / Coupe du monde 2026 / Suède vs Tunisie

Suède vs Tunisie

Group F
Suède Suède
Jun 15, 2026 - 02:00
5 1.49
1 1.21
Tunisie Tunisie

Betting Signal

Le modèle dit
Suède 42.1%
Statut
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The statistical model leans Suède (42.1%).

The model and market both lean Suède, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Tunisie remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Site de paris premium stake : les nouveaux utilisateurs peuvent utiliser le code promo FHn2uDc1. S’inscrire
Prévisions IA
Suède 42.1%
Draw 28.7%
Tunisie 29.3%

Généré à partir d'une simulation de Poisson ajustée par Elo. Pas les cotes des bookmakers.

Afficher les données complètes du modèle
Probabilités de lignes Poisson
Ligne Plus Moins
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Attentes du match
Plus de 2,5 buts
50.6%
Balanced
Moins de 2,5 buts
49.4%
Les deux équipes marquent
55.9%
Balanced
Clean sheet probable
44.1%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 55.9% · No 44.1% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Scores les plus probables
Score Probabilité
1-1 13.7%
2-1 9.0%
1-0 8.4%
0-0 8.3%
2-0 7.5%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Phase de correspondance: Finished

Cycle de vie des décisions

Stade actuel: Closing unavailable

  1. Prédiction générée
  2. Comparaison du marché
    Entrée En attente
  3. Validation réussie
  4. Clôture enregistrée
    Clôture Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
  5. CLV évalué
    CLV En attente Requires closing line after full time
Retour aux prévisions du jour
Matchs Group F