The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Quần đảo Faroe at 41.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Quần đảo Faroe Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | 28.2% | 39.8% | -11.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.6% | 31.6% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Quần đảo Faroe | 41.2% | 28.7% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Quần đảo Faroe's win probability at 41.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.7%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Quần đảo Faroe.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Quần đảo Faroe; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Quần đảo Faroe by 12.5 percentage points (28.7% vs model 41.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kazakhstan 28.2% · Draw 30.7% · Quần đảo Faroe 41.1%
- xG · Kazakhstan 1.07 — Quần đảo Faroe 1.34
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Kazakhstan 2.38 · Draw 3.00 · Quần đảo Faroe 3.30
- Implied 1X2 · Kazakhstan 39.8% · Draw 31.6% · Quần đảo Faroe 28.7%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kazakhstan 2.38 · Draw 3.00 · Quần đảo Faroe 3.30
- Implied 1X2 · Kazakhstan 39.8% · Draw 31.6% · Quần đảo Faroe 28.7%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
12/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.3
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Kazakhstan 2–2 Quần đảo Faroe
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "257b585bcc9d437c5d6584bc4a1472f79aead000f0d3f8bb55eab589e93ac853",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.412,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.498,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.502,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3063,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.43,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.26,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.55,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.07,
"home_win_prob": 0.2817,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.433,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.567
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1222,
"edge_gap": 0.1048,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2893,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.2,
"draw": 30.7,
"home": 28.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 3.42
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 3.38
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.31
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 3.3
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 3.25
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 3.2
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 3.2
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 3.1
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.42,
"bookmaker_affi": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"display_market": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.46,
"market_odds": 3.23,
"model_odds": 2.43,
"overround": 7.0,
"prob_edge": 11.9,
"value_pct": 40.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 65.7,
"no_prob": 49.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 50.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 50.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.07,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kazakhstan or Draw",
"prob": 58.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kazakhstan or Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"prob": 71.8
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"pick_prob": 71.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.2,
"draw_pct": 30.6,
"home_pct": 28.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.41,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 43.3,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 56.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.41,
"under_prob": 56.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"edge": 40.9,
"implied_prob": 29.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe Win",
"model_prob": 41.2,
"odds": 3.42
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.2,
"ev": -0.2002,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.2,
"market_prob": 0.1613,
"market_prob_pct": 16.1,
"model_prob": 0.129,
"model_prob_pct": 12.9,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.07,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.495,
"edge": 0.009,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.3786,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.433,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.495,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3786,
"model_prob": 0.433,
"p_final": 0.3876
},
"p_final": 0.3876,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0803,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.033,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0742,
"implied_prob": 0.6214,
"model_prob": 0.567,
"p_final": 0.6091
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1041,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.4,
"text": "+10.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1098,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.0,
"text": "-11.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1041,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 43.3,
"sort_key": 10243.69,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 56.7,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0096,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2306,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0937,
"implied_prob": 0.5436,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5331
},
"p_final": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0166,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4564,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4659
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1285,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0542,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.4,
"text": "+5.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0542,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 49.8,
"sort_key": 10048.78,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 50.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0319,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.2,
"text": "+3.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0319,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.2,
"text": "+3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"sort_key": 10028.71,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"model_prob_pct": 41.2,
"model_team": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4075,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe at 41.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe as the value side (41.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528951 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0319,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31007751937984496,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.07,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.07 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4075,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe at 41.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe as the value side (41.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528951 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0319,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31007751937984496,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kazakhstan 1.07 xG vs Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe 1.34 \u2192 Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe 41.2%",
"Market Drift: Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 28.17,
"label": "Kazakhstan",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.2,
"label": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.34,
"fair_prob": 43.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.34,
"fair_prob": 56.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob": 50.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.43,
"fair_prob": 49.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.2,
"model_prob_pct": 41.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kazakhstan 1.07 xG vs Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe 1.34 \u2192 Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe 41.2%",
"Market Drift: Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.6 pp (at 41.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kazakhstan",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe (41.2%).",
"However, Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +10.0%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.3,
"entry_odds": 3.3,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 55h 41m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe (10.0%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.15",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.42 \u2192 2.77 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 55h 41m",
"pick_team": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "faroe-islands",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"away_team_id": 1098,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1098.webp",
"away_team_name": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"away_team_public_id": "0DQfc8oDdFGINi",
"away_team_slug": "faroe-islands",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528951,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Kazakhstan",
"home_team_display_name": "Kazakhstan",
"home_team_id": 1095,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1095.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kazakhstan",
"home_team_public_id": "3L2AG9DeSQyfcj",
"home_team_slug": "kazakhstan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kazakhstan",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "29fsGHu8zxOuWX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Astana",
"venue_name": "Astana Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2454,
"best_odd": 3.225,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0298,
"ev": 0.0319,
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2902,
"draw": 0.3073,
"home": 0.4025
},
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"p_final": 0.32
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2997,
"best_odd": 3.045,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.3073,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2902,
"draw": 0.3073,
"home": 0.4025
},
"model_prob": 0.3068,
"p_final": 0.3072
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3685,
"best_odd": 2.325,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0445,
"ev": -0.1677,
"implied_prob": 0.4025,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2902,
"draw": 0.3073,
"home": 0.4025
},
"model_prob": 0.2817,
"p_final": 0.358
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.1191,
"ev": 0.4075,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.4115
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.049,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.3068
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": -0.1298,
"ev": -0.3155,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.2817
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2306,
"alpha_yes": 0.2096,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0443,
"edge_yes": 0.0443,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1285,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0937,
"ev_yes": 0.0542,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"implied_no": 0.5423,
"implied_yes": 0.4577,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2306,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0937,
"implied_prob": 0.5436,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5331
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4564,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4659
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5331,
"p_final_yes": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1653,
"alpha_under": 0.2273,
"best_over_odd": 2.55,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.495,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.52,
"edge_over": 0.0534,
"edge_under": -0.0534,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1041,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.033,
"ev_under": -0.1098,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0742,
"implied_over": 0.3796,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3786,
"implied_under": 0.6204,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6214,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.495,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3786,
"model_prob": 0.433,
"p_final": 0.3876
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0742,
"implied_prob": 0.6214,
"model_prob": 0.567,
"p_final": 0.6091
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3876,
"p_final_under": 0.6091,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.41,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4075,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1041,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4075,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe at 41.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe as the value side (41.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528951 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0319,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31007751937984496,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.502,
"draw_prob": 0.3068,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4115,
"over_prob": 0.433,
"total_xg": 2.41,
"under_prob": 0.567,
"xg_diff": 0.27
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0298,
"ev": 0.0319,
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0096,
"market_prob": 0.4564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2306,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0937,
"implied_prob": 0.5436,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5331
},
"p_final": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4564,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4659
}
},
"edge": 0.0443,
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.495,
"edge": 0.009,
"market_prob": 0.3786,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.433,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.495,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3786,
"model_prob": 0.433,
"p_final": 0.3876
},
"p_final": 0.3876,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.033,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0742,
"implied_prob": 0.6214,
"model_prob": 0.567,
"p_final": 0.6091
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0534,
"ev": 0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.3796,
"model_prob": 0.433,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528951,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1041,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4115,
"draw": 0.3068,
"home": 0.2817
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Faroe",
"home": "Kazakhstan"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.027766,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.3796,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.433,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0319,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31007751937984496,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528951,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-06T01:11:49.842334+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Kazakhstan & Quần đảo Faroe!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
UEFA Nations League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ý | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Pháp | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bỉ | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
