The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Kepulauan Faroe at 41.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Kepulauan Faroe Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | 28.2% | 39.8% | -11.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.6% | 31.6% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Kepulauan Faroe | 41.2% | 28.7% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Kepulauan Faroe's win probability at 41.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.7%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Kepulauan Faroe.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Kepulauan Faroe; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kepulauan Faroe by 12.5 percentage points (28.7% vs model 41.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kazakhstan 28.2% · Draw 30.7% · Kepulauan Faroe 41.1%
- xG · Kazakhstan 1.07 — Kepulauan Faroe 1.34
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Kazakhstan 2.38 · Draw 3.00 · Kepulauan Faroe 3.30
- Implied 1X2 · Kazakhstan 39.8% · Draw 31.6% · Kepulauan Faroe 28.7%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kazakhstan 2.38 · Draw 3.00 · Kepulauan Faroe 3.30
- Implied 1X2 · Kazakhstan 39.8% · Draw 31.6% · Kepulauan Faroe 28.7%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
12/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.3
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Kazakhstan 2–2 Kepulauan Faroe
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
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],
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},
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{
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},
"ev_available": true,
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0319,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 3.2,
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},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"sort_key": 10028.71,
"tier": "best"
},
{
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"tier": "risk",
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"top_prob": 12.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"model_prob_pct": 41.2,
"model_team": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4075,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kepulauan Faroe at 41.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kepulauan Faroe as the value side (41.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kepulauan Faroe \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528951 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0319,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31007751937984496,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.07,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.07 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4075,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kepulauan Faroe at 41.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kepulauan Faroe as the value side (41.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kepulauan Faroe \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528951 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0319,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31007751937984496,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kazakhstan 1.07 xG vs Kepulauan Faroe 1.34 \u2192 Kepulauan Faroe 41.2%",
"Market Drift: Kepulauan Faroe odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kepulauan Faroe, but the market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 28.17,
"label": "Kazakhstan",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.2,
"label": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.34,
"fair_prob": 43.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.34,
"fair_prob": 56.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob": 50.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.43,
"fair_prob": 49.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.2,
"model_prob_pct": 41.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kazakhstan 1.07 xG vs Kepulauan Faroe 1.34 \u2192 Kepulauan Faroe 41.2%",
"Market Drift: Kepulauan Faroe odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kepulauan Faroe, but the market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Kepulauan Faroe odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.6 pp (at 41.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kazakhstan",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Kepulauan Faroe (41.2%).",
"However, Kepulauan Faroe has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +10.0%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.3,
"entry_odds": 3.3,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 55h 41m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Kepulauan Faroe (10.0%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.15",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.42 \u2192 2.77 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 55h 41m",
"pick_team": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Kepulauan Faroe",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Kepulauan Faroe while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "faroe-islands",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"away_team_id": 1098,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1098.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"away_team_public_id": "0DQfc8oDdFGINi",
"away_team_slug": "faroe-islands",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528951,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Kazakhstan",
"home_team_display_name": "Kazakhstan",
"home_team_id": 1095,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1095.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kazakhstan",
"home_team_public_id": "3L2AG9DeSQyfcj",
"home_team_slug": "kazakhstan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kazakhstan",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "29fsGHu8zxOuWX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Astana",
"venue_name": "Astana Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2454,
"best_odd": 3.225,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0298,
"ev": 0.0319,
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2902,
"draw": 0.3073,
"home": 0.4025
},
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"p_final": 0.32
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2997,
"best_odd": 3.045,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.3073,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2902,
"draw": 0.3073,
"home": 0.4025
},
"model_prob": 0.3068,
"p_final": 0.3072
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3685,
"best_odd": 2.325,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0445,
"ev": -0.1677,
"implied_prob": 0.4025,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2902,
"draw": 0.3073,
"home": 0.4025
},
"model_prob": 0.2817,
"p_final": 0.358
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.1191,
"ev": 0.4075,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.4115
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.049,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.3068
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": -0.1298,
"ev": -0.3155,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.2817
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2306,
"alpha_yes": 0.2096,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0443,
"edge_yes": 0.0443,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1285,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0937,
"ev_yes": 0.0542,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"implied_no": 0.5423,
"implied_yes": 0.4577,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2306,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0937,
"implied_prob": 0.5436,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5331
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4564,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4659
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5331,
"p_final_yes": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1653,
"alpha_under": 0.2273,
"best_over_odd": 2.55,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.495,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.52,
"edge_over": 0.0534,
"edge_under": -0.0534,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1041,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.033,
"ev_under": -0.1098,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0742,
"implied_over": 0.3796,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3786,
"implied_under": 0.6204,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6214,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.495,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3786,
"model_prob": 0.433,
"p_final": 0.3876
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0742,
"implied_prob": 0.6214,
"model_prob": 0.567,
"p_final": 0.6091
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3876,
"p_final_under": 0.6091,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.41,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4075,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1041,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4075,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kepulauan Faroe at 41.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kepulauan Faroe as the value side (41.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kepulauan Faroe \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.25 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528951 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.25 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kepulauan Faroe, but the model still strongly favours Kepulauan Faroe.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0319,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31007751937984496,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.502,
"draw_prob": 0.3068,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4115,
"over_prob": 0.433,
"total_xg": 2.41,
"under_prob": 0.567,
"xg_diff": 0.27
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0298,
"ev": 0.0319,
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Kepulauan Faroe"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0096,
"market_prob": 0.4564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2306,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0937,
"implied_prob": 0.5436,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5331
},
"p_final": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2096,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4564,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4659
}
},
"edge": 0.0443,
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.495,
"edge": 0.009,
"market_prob": 0.3786,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.433,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.495,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3786,
"model_prob": 0.433,
"p_final": 0.3876
},
"p_final": 0.3876,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.033,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2273,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0742,
"implied_prob": 0.6214,
"model_prob": 0.567,
"p_final": 0.6091
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0534,
"ev": 0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.3796,
"model_prob": 0.433,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528951,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1041,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4115,
"draw": 0.3068,
"home": 0.2817
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kepulauan Faroe",
"home": "Kazakhstan"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.027766,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.3796,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.433,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0319,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.225,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31007751937984496,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528951,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-06T01:11:49.842334+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Negara-Negara UEFA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Itali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Itali | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | France | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Itali | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Türkiye | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Belgium | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
