AI correctly predicted the Thụy Điển win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Thụy Điển Thụy Điển ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | 28.6% | 22.5% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.9% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Thụy Điển | 47.8% | 52.6% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Romania's win probability at 28.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Thụy Điển win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Romania.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Thụy Điển more conservatively (41.7% vs model 47.8%, 6.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Thụy Điển win 0–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 19:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Romania 28.6% · Draw 23.6% · Thụy Điển 47.8%
- xG · Romania 1.81 — Thụy Điển 1.98
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:25 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Romania 3.90 · Draw 3.80 · Thụy Điển 1.85
- Implied 1X2 · Romania 24.2% · Draw 24.8% · Thụy Điển 51.0%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Romania 4.20 · Draw 3.80 · Thụy Điển 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · Romania 22.5% · Draw 24.9% · Thụy Điển 52.6%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Thụy Điển win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
69/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.2
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Thụy Điển win · Romania 0–1 Thụy Điển
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
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"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1015,
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"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
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"max_ev": -0.0072,
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"raw_pct": -0.7,
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},
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1394,
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"side_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"sort_key": 1798.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.12,
"hero_label": "Romania",
"market_prob_pct": 52.6,
"market_team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"model_prob_pct": 47.8,
"model_team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n)."
},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2024,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n at 47.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n as the value side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1015,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.12,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.12,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.98,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 47.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.81,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.98,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.81 \u00b7 Away xG 1.98 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +47%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2024,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n at 47.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n as the value side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1015,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Romania 1.81 xG vs Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n 1.98 \u2192 Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n 47.8%",
"Market: Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n ~52.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.12,
"fair_prob": 28.65,
"label": "Romania",
"market_prob": 22.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.32,
"fair_prob": 23.58,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.81,
"fair_prob": 47.76,
"label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"market_prob": 52.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.89,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.79,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.39,
"fair_prob": 73.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.39,
"fair_prob": 26.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.65,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Romania",
"market_prob_pct": 22.53,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Romania\u0027s win probability at 28.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.12,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.8,
"model_prob_pct": 47.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Romania 1.81 xG vs Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n 1.98 \u2192 Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n 47.8%",
"Market: Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n ~52.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.12,
"hero_label": "Romania",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +10.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Romania.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Romania.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Romania.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.12,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 19.1 pp (at 47.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 19.1,
"max_prob_pct": 47.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Romania",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.1,
"lead": "The model rates Romania considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.12,
"edge_pp": 6.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Romania",
"market_prob_pct": 22.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.32,
"edge_pp": -1.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.9,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.81,
"edge_pp": -4.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.76,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"market_prob_pct": 52.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n (52.6%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.8%, 8/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.81,
"closing_odds": 4.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.81,
"entry_odds": 4.2,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 42m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Draw (10.8%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.30",
"4.00",
"3.70"
],
"display": "4.25 \u2192 3.41 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 42m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.41"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
4.3,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sweden",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"away_team_id": 5,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5.webp",
"away_team_name": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"away_team_public_id": "2gOtIvPgul7dU6",
"away_team_slug": "sweden",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528949,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "Romania",
"home_team_id": 774,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/774.webp",
"home_team_name": "Romania",
"home_team_public_id": "4t880qcF41CCbm",
"home_team_slug": "romania",
"ht.home_team_slug": "romania",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4wRXWTLvoOK6X4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Bucharest",
"venue_name": "Arena Na\u021bional\u0103"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5571,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5257,
"draw": 0.249,
"home": 0.2253
},
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"p_final": 0.4992
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.294,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.249,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5257,
"draw": 0.249,
"home": 0.2253
},
"model_prob": 0.2356,
"p_final": 0.2451
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1817,
"best_odd": 4.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0072,
"implied_prob": 0.2253,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5257,
"draw": 0.249,
"home": 0.2253
},
"model_prob": 0.2863,
"p_final": 0.2364
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0775,
"ev": -0.1395,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.4781
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.2356
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0482,
"ev": 0.2024,
"implied_prob": 0.2381,
"model_prob": 0.2863
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1431,
"alpha_yes": 0.1967,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1339,
"edge_yes": 0.1339,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.341,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1176,
"ev_yes": 0.1477,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.031,
"implied_no": 0.4029,
"implied_yes": 0.5971,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.4057,
"model_prob": 0.269,
"p_final": 0.3862
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.5943,
"model_prob": 0.731,
"p_final": 0.6212
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3862,
"p_final_yes": 0.6212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2094,
"alpha_under": 0.1526,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.39,
"edge_over": 0.1289,
"edge_under": -0.1279,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1826,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0021,
"ev_under": -0.336,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0921,
"implied_over": 0.6011,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6005,
"implied_under": 0.3989,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3995,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": 0.0271,
"ev": -0.0021,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6276
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3799
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6276,
"p_final_under": 0.3799,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2024,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1826,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2024,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n at 47.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n as the value side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1015,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.731,
"draw_prob": 0.2356,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4781,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
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},
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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},
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"match_regime": {
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],
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"teams": {
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},
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528949,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T19:11:36.338200+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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UEFA Nations League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ý | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Pháp | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bỉ | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
