The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Thụy Điển at 45.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Thụy Điển Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 1-3, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Thụy Điển; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 19:21 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.59 — Thụy Điển 2.20
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (63%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Thụy Điển
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "33f04326d751e1621d243573f138000bf0409d7299d58409350eb2e9e86df955",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.2441,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3024,
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"away_win_prob": 0.4535,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.282,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.718,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.21,
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"fair_odds_draw": 4.1,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.31,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.59,
"home_win_prob": 0.3024,
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"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n"
},
"away_xg": 2.2,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"confidence": 45.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"edge": 0.0618,
"edge_gap": 0.1506,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 24.4,
"home": 30.3
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.47
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.47,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.56,
"market_odds": 2.47,
"model_odds": 2.21,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 4.8,
"value_pct": 11.8,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 88.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 79.6,
"no_prob": 28.2,
"pick": "Yes",
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},
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"home_expected": 1.59,
"scores": [
{
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"label": "1-2",
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},
{
"away": 1,
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},
{
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},
{
"away": 3,
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"label": "1-3",
"prob": 6.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina or Draw",
"prob": 54.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina or Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"prob": 75.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"prob": 69.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina or Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"pick_prob": 75.6
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 24.4,
"home_pct": 30.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 12.1,
"implied_prob": 40.5,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n Win",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 26.34,
"home": 34.52
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 18:45:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 18:15:08",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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}
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"movement": [
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 6.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.59,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.5784,
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"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
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"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0015,
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"p_final": 0.6088
},
"p_final": 0.6088,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
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"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.241,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.1,
"text": "+24.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.3767,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -37.7,
"text": "-37.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.241,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 10366.9,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0217,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.6141,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.718,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"best_odd": 2.395,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"model_prob": 0.282,
"p_final": 0.3701
},
"p_final": 0.6358,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0806,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0431,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.6141,
"model_prob": 0.718,
"p_final": 0.6358
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2809,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -28.1,
"text": "-28.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1129,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.3,
"text": "+11.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1129,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 28.2,
"sort_key": 10101.61,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 71.8
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.029,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.029,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4532,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1194,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"sort_key": 5223.2,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 806.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 8.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"alert_team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.21,
"hero_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"market_prob_pct": 39.1,
"market_team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"model_prob_pct": 45.4,
"model_team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4532,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1194,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 63.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 63%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.61"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.61
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (63%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.21,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.2,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 63.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.59,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.2,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.59 \u00b7 Away xG 2.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +63%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"steam_team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4532,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1194,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 63.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 63%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.61"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.61
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina 1.59 xG vs Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n 2.20 \u2192 Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n 45.4%",
"Market: Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n ~39.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.28,
"fair_prob": 30.24,
"label": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"market_prob": 34.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.93,
"fair_prob": 24.41,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.21,
"fair_prob": 45.35,
"label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"market_prob": 39.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.23,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.13,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.33,
"fair_prob": 71.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.33,
"fair_prob": 28.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.35,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"market_prob_pct": 39.14,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n\u0027s win probability at 45.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 39.1%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.3,
"model_prob_pct": 45.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina 1.59 xG vs Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n 2.20 \u2192 Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n 45.4%",
"Market: Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n ~39.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.21,
"hero_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n odds lengthened \u2191 +20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"Recent line movement on Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n (\u2191 +20.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.1 pp (at 45.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.1,
"max_prob_pct": 45.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.2,
"lead": "The model rates Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.28,
"edge_pp": -4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"market_prob_pct": 34.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.93,
"edge_pp": -1.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.41,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.21,
"edge_pp": 6.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.35,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"market_prob_pct": 39.14,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n (39.1%).",
"However, Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.0%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, Market \u2192 Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, while Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.49,
"closing_odds": 2.47,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.49,
"entry_odds": 2.47,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 68h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n together (20.0% drift, score 78) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.47",
"2.24",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.50 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 68h 15m",
"pick_team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.47,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_team_name": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sweden",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"away_team_id": 5,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5.webp",
"away_team_name": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"away_team_public_id": "2gOtIvPgul7dU6",
"away_team_slug": "sweden",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528929,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Bosnia",
"home_team_display_name": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"home_team_id": 1113,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1113.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina",
"home_team_public_id": "3pB0NlNACCXtcR",
"home_team_slug": "bosnia-herzegovina",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bosnia-herzegovina",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 18:45:00",
"public_id": "16iHEPQ4jv0cGx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Zenica",
"venue_name": "Stadion Bilino Polje"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4083,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": 0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3914,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.3452
},
"model_prob": 0.4532,
"p_final": 0.4166
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2914,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.2634,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3914,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.3452
},
"model_prob": 0.2443,
"p_final": 0.2578
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4212,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.0837,
"implied_prob": 0.3452,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3914,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.3452
},
"model_prob": 0.3026,
"p_final": 0.3273
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": 0.0483,
"ev": 0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.4532
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1035,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2443
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": -0.0546,
"ev": -0.1528,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.3026
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1519,
"alpha_yes": 0.2089,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1033,
"edge_yes": 0.1033,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2809,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1136,
"ev_yes": 0.1129,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0431,
"implied_no": 0.3853,
"implied_yes": 0.6147,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"best_odd": 2.395,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"model_prob": 0.282,
"p_final": 0.3701
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.6141,
"model_prob": 0.718,
"p_final": 0.6358
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3701,
"p_final_yes": 0.6358,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2008,
"alpha_under": 0.1463,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": 0.1523,
"edge_under": -0.1513,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.241,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0015,
"ev_under": -0.3767,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.101,
"implied_over": 0.5777,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5784,
"implied_under": 0.4223,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4216,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0015,
"implied_prob": 0.5784,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6088
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.4216,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3996
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6088,
"p_final_under": 0.3996,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.241,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.241,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, but the model still strongly favours Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4532,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1194,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 63.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 63%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.61"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.61
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.718,
"draw_prob": 0.2443,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4532,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.61
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": 0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4532,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0217,
"market_prob": 0.6141,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.718,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"best_odd": 2.395,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"model_prob": 0.282,
"p_final": 0.3701
},
"p_final": 0.6358,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0431,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.6141,
"model_prob": 0.718,
"p_final": 0.6358
}
},
"edge": 0.1033,
"ev": 0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.6147,
"model_prob": 0.718,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"market_prob": 0.5784,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0015,
"implied_prob": 0.5784,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6088
},
"p_final": 0.6088,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0015,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.4216,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1523,
"ev": 0.241,
"implied_prob": 0.5777,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528929,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.241,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4532,
"draw": 0.2443,
"home": 0.3026
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.6147,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.718,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.6147,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.718,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n",
"home": "Bosnia \u0026 Herzegovina"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.219913,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.241,
"implied_prob": 0.5777,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.029,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4532,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1194,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528929,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T19:21:12.381962+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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UEFA Nations League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ý | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Pháp | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bỉ | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
