AI correctly predicted the Croatia win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Croatia Croatia ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Croatia win 1–2).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 19:35 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Cộng hòa Séc 1.90 — Croatia 1.89
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Croatia win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Croatia win · Cộng hòa Séc 1–2 Croatia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
"key": "X2",
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},
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},
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},
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.103,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.3,
"text": "-10.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4881,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0295,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4233,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Croatia",
"sort_key": 5223.6,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"alert_team": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.8,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Croatia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Croatia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3505,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3505,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Croatia at 42.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Croatia as the value side (42.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Croatia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Croatia).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.103,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4881,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4233,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1619,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 40.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.01 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.01
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.85,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.89,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.9,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.9,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.90 \u00b7 Away xG 1.89 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +41%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"steam_team": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Croatia).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Croatia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Croatia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3505,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3505,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Croatia at 42.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Croatia as the value side (42.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Croatia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Croatia).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.103,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4881,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4233,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1619,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 40.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.01 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.01
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c 1.90 xG vs Croatia 1.89 \u2192 Croatia 42.3%",
"Market: Croatia ~48.8% implied",
"Market Drift: C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c odds \u2191 +16.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Croatia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.85,
"fair_prob": 32.42,
"label": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"market_prob": 23.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.37,
"fair_prob": 25.24,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.47,
"fair_prob": 42.34,
"label": "Croatia",
"market_prob": 48.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.58,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.48,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.79,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.79,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"market_prob_pct": 23.57,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c\u0027s win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.6%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Croatia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.5,
"model_prob_pct": 42.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Croatia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c 1.90 xG vs Croatia 1.89 \u2192 Croatia 42.3%",
"Market: Croatia ~48.8% implied",
"Market Drift: C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c odds \u2191 +16.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Croatia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.85,
"hero_label": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c odds lengthened \u2191 +16.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c.",
"Recent line movement on C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c (\u2191 +16.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.9 pp (at 42.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.9,
"max_prob_pct": 42.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.8,
"lead": "The model rates C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.85,
"edge_pp": 8.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"market_prob_pct": 23.57,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.37,
"edge_pp": -2.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.47,
"edge_pp": -6.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Croatia",
"market_prob_pct": 48.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Croatia (48.8%).",
"However, C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.1%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Croatia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.39,
"closing_odds": 4.1,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.39,
"entry_odds": 4.1,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "HT",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 HT",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c together (16.1% drift, score 63) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.10",
"3.60",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.81 \u2192 2.86 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 52m",
"pick_team": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.81"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
4.1,
3.81,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,5.2 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c odds \u2191 +16.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c odds \u2191 +16.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_team_name": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "croatia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Croatia",
"away_team_id": 3,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3.webp",
"away_team_name": "Croatia",
"away_team_public_id": "11WxOVC30FEoXQ",
"away_team_slug": "croatia",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528892,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"home_team_id": 770,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/770.webp",
"home_team_name": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"home_team_name_canonical": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"home_team_public_id": "0nJNpCDlGwwNVs",
"home_team_slug": "czech-republic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "czech-republic",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 18:45:00",
"public_id": "1Qk3mcQYa6vxHm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": "Prague",
"venue_name": "Eden Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5417,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.103,
"implied_prob": 0.4881,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4881,
"draw": 0.2761,
"home": 0.2357
},
"model_prob": 0.4233,
"p_final": 0.453
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2893,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.2761,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4881,
"draw": 0.2761,
"home": 0.2357
},
"model_prob": 0.2523,
"p_final": 0.2692
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1734,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": 0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.2357,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4881,
"draw": 0.2761,
"home": 0.2357
},
"model_prob": 0.3244,
"p_final": 0.2511
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.0817,
"ev": -0.1618,
"implied_prob": 0.5051,
"model_prob": 0.4233
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2523
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0805,
"ev": 0.3299,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.3244
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1675,
"alpha_yes": 0.1843,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1679,
"edge_yes": 0.1679,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.397,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1334,
"ev_yes": 0.2224,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0213,
"implied_no": 0.4359,
"implied_yes": 0.5641,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1675,
"best_odd": 2.115,
"edge": -0.0285,
"ev": -0.1334,
"implied_prob": 0.4382,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.4097
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1843,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0314,
"ev": -0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.5931
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4097,
"p_final_yes": 0.5931,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1635,
"alpha_under": 0.1639,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.82,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": 0.2058,
"edge_under": -0.2048,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3505,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0162,
"ev_under": -0.4472,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1121,
"implied_over": 0.5242,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5248,
"implied_under": 0.4758,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4752,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1635,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0336,
"ev": 0.0162,
"implied_prob": 0.5248,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.5584
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.4752,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4417
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5584,
"p_final_under": 0.4417,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3505,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3505,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3505,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Croatia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3505,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3505,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Croatia at 42.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Croatia as the value side (42.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Croatia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Croatia).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.103,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4881,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4233,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1619,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 40.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.01 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.01
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2523,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4233,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.01
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.2357,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3244,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
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},
"btts": {
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},
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0213,
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"yes": {
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}
},
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0336,
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"over": {
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},
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"risk_adj_ev": 0.0162,
"under": {
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},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528892,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3505,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4233,
"draw": 0.2523,
"home": 0.3244
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2224,
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Croatia",
"home": "C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3505,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.103,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4881,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4233,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1619,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528892,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T19:35:50.624721+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Đăng ký ngay
UEFA Nations League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ý | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Pháp | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bỉ | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
