The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Slavia Mozyr at 35.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Slavia Mozyr Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Slavia Mozyr; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Torpedo Zhodino 1.25 — Slavia Mozyr 1.35
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Torpedo Zhodino 1–1 Slavia Mozyr
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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"overround": 6.4,
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"away_played": 10,
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 2,
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},
{
"away": 1,
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 65.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.0
},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 14.4,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Slavia Mozyr Win",
"model_prob": 35.1,
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}
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"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
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},
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},
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{
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},
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"ev_under_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
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},
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},
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"sort_key": 2199.68,
"tier": "pass"
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"alert_team": "Slavia Mozyr",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.29,
"hero_label": "Slavia Mozyr",
"market_prob_pct": 28.8,
"market_team": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"model_prob_pct": 35.1,
"model_team": "Slavia Mozyr",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.63,
"fair_prob": 34.9,
"label": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"market_prob": 40.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.66,
"fair_prob": 29.97,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.29,
"fair_prob": 35.13,
"label": "Slavia Mozyr",
"market_prob": 28.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.89,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.89,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.56,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.56,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.13,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Slavia Mozyr",
"market_prob_pct": 28.84,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Slavia Mozyr"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 6.29,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Slavia Mozyr",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 28.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Slavia Mozyr, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Torpedo Zhodino remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.29,
"hero_label": "Slavia Mozyr",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Slavia Mozyr odds shortened \u2193 -11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Slavia Mozyr.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Slavia Mozyr.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Slavia Mozyr.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Slavia Mozyr."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Slavia Mozyr.",
"Recent line movement on Slavia Mozyr (\u2193 -11.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 6.29,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.2 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.2,
"max_prob_pct": 35.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.9,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"market_prob_pct": 40.53,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.63,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.13,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Slavia Mozyr",
"market_prob_pct": 28.84,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Slavia Mozyr.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Torpedo Zhodino (28.8%).",
"Slavia Mozyr has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -11.1%, 2/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Slavia Mozyr, Market \u2192 Torpedo Zhodino, Recent sharp money \u2192 Slavia Mozyr.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.67,
"closing_odds": 3.26,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.67,
"entry_odds": 3.26,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.12,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 51h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Slavia Mozyr (11.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.51 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.12",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 51h 53m",
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"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,11.5 56.0,18.0",
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"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
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"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
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"current_odds": 3.12,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"open_odds": 3.51,
"pick_team": "Slavia Mozyr",
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"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 751,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/751.webp",
"away_team_name": "Slavia Mozyr",
"country_code": "BY",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/by.svg",
"country_name": "Belarus",
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"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Belarus",
"home_team_id": 385,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/385.webp",
"home_team_name": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"league_country": "Belarus",
"league_id": 116,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/116.webp",
"league_name": "Belarus Premier League",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 17:00:00",
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"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Zhodino",
"venue_name": "Stadion Torpedo"
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"score": 6.0
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"best_odd": 3.07,
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"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1136,
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"best_yes_odd": 1.97,
"edge_no": -0.0656,
"edge_yes": 0.0656,
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"ev_no": -0.181,
"ev_yes": 0.0736,
"implied_no": 0.5206,
"implied_yes": 0.4794,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
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"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.0689,
"edge_under": -0.0689,
"ev_available": true,
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"reliability": "medium"
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},
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"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
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"confidence": 5.5,
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"score": 5.5
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"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
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"side": null
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"over_prob": 0.482,
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"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
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"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
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"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.004,
"implied_prob": 0.2884,
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"model_prob": 0.3513,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Slavia Mozyr"
},
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"edge": 0.0656,
"ev": 0.0736,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
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"ev": 0.1038,
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"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
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},
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"match_regime": {
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"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1038,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
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},
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"draw": 0.2998,
"home": 0.3489
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"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.4131,
"market": "ou_2_5",
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"slot": "secondary"
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"home": "Torpedo Zhodino"
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"top_pick": {
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}
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Langgan Sekarang
Belarus Premier League — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 44 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 40 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 6 | Neman | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| 13 | Belshina | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 16 |
| 16 | Naftan | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 42 | 17 | +25 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo Brest | 23 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 40 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 21 | 37 | 16 | +21 | 43 |
| 4 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 22 | 37 | 18 | +19 | 45 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 39 |
| 6 | FC Minsk | 23 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 34 |
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 23 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 | Torpedo Zhodino | 22 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Neman | 22 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 37 |
| 10 | Baranovichi | 23 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 25 |
| 11 | Arsenal | 23 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 23 |
| 12 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
| 13 | Belshina | 22 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 20 | 36 | -16 | 16 |
| 15 | Naftan | 23 | 20 | 54 | -34 | 14 |
| 16 | Bate Borisov | 22 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 18 |
