AI correctly predicted the Tartu Kalev win.
The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Tartu Kalev Tartu Kalev ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Tartu Kalev win 0–4).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.24 — Tartu Kalev 1.36
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tartu Kalev win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tartu Kalev win · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 0–4 Tartu Kalev
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
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},
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"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0441,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0433,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.3,
"text": "-4.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1447,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Tartu Kalev",
"sort_key": 1789.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.55,
"hero_label": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"market_prob_pct": 29.5,
"market_team": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Tartu Kalev",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tartu Kalev at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tartu Kalev as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tartu Kalev",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0441,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1447,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.55,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tartu Kalev at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tartu Kalev as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tartu Kalev",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0441,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1447,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.24 xG vs Tartu Kalev 1.36 \u2192 Tartu Kalev 38.0%",
"Market: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 ~29.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Tartu Kalev, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -17.55,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"market_prob": 49.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.06,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.48,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Tartu Kalev",
"market_prob": 29.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.58,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 76.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 28.58,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 23.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.67,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 76.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.67,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 23.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"market_prob_pct": 49.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Parnu JK Vaprus U21\u0027s win probability at 49.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 17.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tartu Kalev",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.24 xG vs Tartu Kalev 1.36 \u2192 Tartu Kalev 38.0%",
"Market: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 ~29.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Tartu Kalev, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.55,
"hero_label": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Parnu JK Vaprus U21 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Parnu JK Vaprus U21 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Parnu JK Vaprus U21 than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Parnu JK Vaprus U21 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (pricing gap 17.6 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Parnu JK Vaprus U21 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -17.55,
"edge_pp": -17.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"market_prob_pct": 49.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.06,
"edge_pp": 9.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.48,
"edge_pp": 8.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tartu Kalev",
"market_prob_pct": 29.53,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Parnu JK Vaprus U21 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (29.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Tartu Kalev, Market \u2192 Parnu JK Vaprus U21, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.18,
"closing_odds": 1.78,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_team_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tartu-kalev",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tartu Kalev",
"away_team_id": 16962,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16962.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tartu Kalev",
"away_team_public_id": "3Iw4liv7mwz4KD",
"away_team_slug": "tartu-kalev",
"country_code": "EE",
"country_display_name": "Estonia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ee.svg",
"country_id": 50,
"country_name": "Estonia",
"fixture_id": 1521689,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Estonia",
"home_team_display_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"home_team_id": 25403,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25403.webp",
"home_team_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21",
"home_team_public_id": "3Jm5CYlNsY4Kz8",
"home_team_slug": "parnu-jk-vaprus-u21",
"ht.home_team_slug": "parnu-jk-vaprus-u21",
"league_country": "Estonia",
"league_country_display": "Estonia",
"league_display_name": "Esiliiga B",
"league_id": 1126,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1126.webp",
"league_name": "Esiliiga B",
"league_public_id": "0lsM7UcBife0Bl",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 09:30:00",
"public_id": "5YcdubtdjisiKq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2617,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2953,
"draw": 0.2053,
"home": 0.4994
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3176
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1728,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0433,
"implied_prob": 0.2053,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2953,
"draw": 0.2053,
"home": 0.4994
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.221
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4419,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0776,
"ev": -0.2493,
"implied_prob": 0.4994,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2953,
"draw": 0.2053,
"home": 0.4994
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.4218
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": 0.0481,
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.33,
"edge": 0.065,
"ev": 0.2814,
"implied_prob": 0.2309,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.2381,
"ev": -0.4238,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1169,
"best_no_odd": 3.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2167,
"edge_yes": -0.2167,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.7693,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.021,
"ev_yes": -0.3472,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1175,
"implied_no": 0.2393,
"implied_yes": 0.7607,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.815,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.2393,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.2566
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1169,
"best_odd": 1.2,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1175,
"implied_prob": 0.7607,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.7354
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.2566,
"p_final_yes": 0.7354,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.099,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.22,
"best_under_odd": 4.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.21,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.0,
"edge_over": -0.2858,
"edge_under": 0.2858,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.412,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1052,
"ev_under": 1.072,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0204,
"implied_over": 0.7678,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7678,
"implied_under": 0.2322,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2322,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.099,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.7678,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7395
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": 0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.2322,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2551
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7395,
"p_final_under": 0.2551,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.072,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.072,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.072,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.6,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tartu Kalev at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tartu Kalev as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tartu Kalev",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus U21, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0441,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1447,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Tartu Kalev"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.815,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.2393,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.815,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.2393,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.2566
},
"p_final": 0.2566,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.021,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1169,
"best_odd": 1.2,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1175,
"implied_prob": 0.7607,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.7354
}
},
"edge": 0.2167,
"ev": 0.7693,
"implied_prob": 0.2393,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0229,
"market_prob": 0.2322,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.099,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.7678,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7395
},
"p_final": 0.2551,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0204,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": 0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.2322,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2551
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2858,
"ev": 1.072,
"implied_prob": 0.2322,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1521689,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.072,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7693,
"implied_prob": 0.2393,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7693,
"implied_prob": 0.2393,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tartu Kalev",
"home": "Parnu JK Vaprus U21"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.342062,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.072,
"implied_prob": 0.2322,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0441,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1447,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1521689,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T09:29:28.394099+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Esiliiga B — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narva U21 | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 63 |
| 2 | Levadia U19 | 31 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 59 |
| 3 | Phoenix | 30 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 54 |
| 4 | Tulevik | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 47 |
| 4 | Johvi Phoenix | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 34 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 30 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | Luunja | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 47 |
| 7 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 46 |
| 8 | JK Tabasalu | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 33 |
| 9 | Tallinna Kalev II | 31 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 29 |
| 10 | Legion | 31 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | 30 | 95 | 62 | +33 | 46 |
| 2 | Tulevik | 31 | 81 | 64 | +17 | 47 |
| 3 | Levadia U19 | 31 | 78 | 52 | +26 | 59 |
| 4 | Luunja | 30 | 74 | 63 | +11 | 47 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 30 | 72 | 58 | +14 | 47 |
| 6 | Narva U21 | 30 | 71 | 36 | +35 | 63 |
| 7 | Phoenix | 30 | 71 | 68 | +3 | 54 |
| 8 | Tallinna Kalev II | 31 | 63 | 78 | -15 | 29 |
| 9 | Johvi Phoenix | 19 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 34 |
| 10 | JK Tabasalu | 30 | 44 | 81 | -37 | 33 |
| 11 | Legion | 31 | 29 | 116 | -87 | 13 |
