Prediksi / Piala Dunia 2026 / Ekuador vs Jerman

Ekuador vs Jerman

Group E
Ekuador Ekuador
Jun 25, 2026 - 20:00
2 1.37
1 1.33
Jerman Jerman

Betting Signal

Kata model
Ekuador 36.3%
Status
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The statistical model leans Ekuador (36.3%).

The model and market both lean Ekuador, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Jerman remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

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Perkiraan AI
Ekuador 36.3%
Draw 29.0%
Jerman 34.7%

Dihasilkan dari simulasi Poisson yang disesuaikan dengan Elo. Bukan peluang taruhan.

Tampilkan Data Model Lengkap
Probabilitas garis gol Poisson
Garis Over Under
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Ekspektasi pertandingan
Over 2,5 gol
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2,5 gol
49.4%
Kedua tim cetak gol
56.5%
Balanced
Clean sheet mungkin
43.5%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 56.5% · No 43.5% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Skor paling mungkin
Skor Probabilitas
1-1 13.8%
2-1 8.4%
0-0 8.3%
1-2 8.2%
1-0 7.6%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.8% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase Pertandingan: Finished

Siklus Hidup Keputusan

Tahap saat ini: Closing unavailable

  1. Prediksi Dihasilkan
  2. Dibandingkan dengan Pasar
    Pintu masuk Tertunda
  3. Validasi Lulus
  4. Penutupan Direkam
    Penutupan Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
  5. CLV Dievaluasi
    CLV Tertunda Requires closing line after full time
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Pertandingan Group E