The model missed the final outcome (WSG Wattens win 2–3).
The model had projected Red Bull Salzburg at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Red Bull Salzburg WSG Wattens ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.88) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Red Bull Salzburg; match finished WSG Wattens
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was WSG Wattens win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Red Bull Salzburg 1.59 — WSG Wattens 1.29
-
Nov 23, 2025 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result WSG Wattens win · 2–3
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
WSG Wattens win · Red Bull Salzburg 2–3 WSG Wattens
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Bundesliga Austria — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | LASK Linz | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | TSV Hartberg | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Rapid Vienna | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | SCR Altach | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 29 |
| 8 | Ried | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 28 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 20 |
| 12 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Bull Salzburg | 22 | 42 | 26 | +16 | 18 |
| 2 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 | LASK Linz | 23 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Wolfsberger AC | 21 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 26 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 23 | 29 | 24 | +5 | 17 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 21 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 28 |
| 8 | Rapid Vienna | 22 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | Ried | 21 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 28 |
| 10 | SCR Altach | 21 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 29 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 21 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 20 |
| 12 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 21 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Bull Salzburg | 22 | 34.1 | 27.3 | +6.8 | 18 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 32.4 | 25.6 | +6.8 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 28.9 | 23.4 | +5.5 | 18 |
| 4 | LASK Linz | 23 | 34.6 | 31.1 | +3.5 | 19 |
| 5 | WSG Wattens | 21 | 25.6 | 23.2 | +2.4 | 28 |
| 6 | Rapid Vienna | 22 | 26.6 | 24.6 | +2.0 | 16 |
| 7 | Ried | 21 | 28.2 | 27.9 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 8 | SCR Altach | 21 | 22.2 | 24.3 | -2.1 | 29 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 21 | 22.9 | 26.9 | -4.0 | 20 |
| 10 | TSV Hartberg | 23 | 22.8 | 28.1 | -5.3 | 17 |
| 11 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 21 | 21.7 | 28.6 | -6.9 | 14 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 21 | 22.8 | 31.8 | -9.0 | 26 |
