The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Stade Brestois 29 at 38.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Stade Brestois 29 Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | 38.1% | 40.2% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 27.6% | 24.8% | +2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Monza | 34.3% | 35.0% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stade Brestois 29 38.0% · Draw 27.6% · Monza 34.4%
- xG · Stade Brestois 29 1.34 — Monza 1.26
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stade Brestois 29 2.25 · Draw 3.65 · Monza 2.59
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Brestois 29 40.2% · Draw 24.8% · Monza 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Stade Brestois 29 2.25 · Draw 3.65 · Monza 2.59
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Brestois 29 40.2% · Draw 24.8% · Monza 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
85/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Monza
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3432,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.91,
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"home_win_prob": 0.3806,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Monza",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Monza"
},
"away_xg": 1.26,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
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"market_comparison": [
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 5,
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"no_prob": 46.5,
"pick": "No",
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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"prob": 65.7
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 72.4
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{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 27.6,
"home_pct": 38.1,
"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 0.7,
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"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 24.8,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 16:02:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 15:33:28",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Stade Brestois 29",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.8,
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{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
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{
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},
"p_final": 0.4507,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.171,
"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "-17.1%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+16.6%"
},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0107,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
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"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0107,
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},
"p_final": 0.4097,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0557,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.116,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.6,
"text": "+11.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.16,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.0,
"text": "-16.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.116,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 46.5,
"sort_key": 10104.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1164,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.6,
"text": "-11.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0651,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.5,
"text": "-6.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1446,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Stade Brestois 29",
"sort_key": 1783.725,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"alert_team": "Monza",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.82,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"market_team": "Stade Brestois 29",
"model_prob_pct": 38.1,
"model_team": "Stade Brestois 29",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stade Brestois 29 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stade Brestois 29 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stade Brestois 29",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1164,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1446,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.82,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"steam_team": "Monza",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stade Brestois 29 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stade Brestois 29 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stade Brestois 29",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1164,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1446,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stade Brestois 29 1.34 xG vs Monza 1.26 \u2192 Stade Brestois 29 38.1%",
"Market: Stade Brestois 29 ~40.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Monza \u2193 -9.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Stade Brestois 29, but sharp money moved toward Monza.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.18,
"fair_prob": 38.06,
"label": "Stade Brestois 29",
"market_prob": 40.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.82,
"fair_prob": 27.62,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.64,
"fair_prob": 34.32,
"label": "Monza",
"market_prob": 34.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.69,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.69,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.62,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Monza"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Stade Brestois 29",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 38.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stade Brestois 29 1.34 xG vs Monza 1.26 \u2192 Stade Brestois 29 38.1%",
"Market: Stade Brestois 29 ~40.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Monza \u2193 -9.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Stade Brestois 29, but sharp money moved toward Monza.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.82,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Monza odds shortened \u2193 -9.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Monza, with odds shortening by 9.4%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Monza \u2014 odds shortened by 9.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Monza, with odds shortening by 9.4%.",
"Buying interest on Monza \u2014 odds shortened by 9.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Monza has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 9.4%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.7 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.7,
"max_prob_pct": 38.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.8,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.8,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.18,
"edge_pp": -2.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Stade Brestois 29",
"market_prob_pct": 40.24,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.82,
"edge_pp": 2.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.62,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.64,
"edge_pp": -0.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Monza",
"market_prob_pct": 34.96,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Monza \u2014 odds shortened by 9.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stade Brestois 29 (40.2%).",
"Monza has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -9.4%, 3/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Stade Brestois 29, Market \u2192 Stade Brestois 29, Recent sharp money \u2192 Monza.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.4,
"closing_odds": 3.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.4,
"entry_odds": 3.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.4
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Monza (9.4%, 3/6) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"2.90",
"2.59"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.48 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 1m",
"pick_team": "Monza",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.48"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
2.59,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,8.9",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.59"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Monza",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Monza while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Monza",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Monza",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Monza",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "monza",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Monza",
"away_team_id": 1579,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1579.webp",
"away_team_name": "Monza",
"away_team_public_id": "5vOQroN8gmPa8C",
"away_team_slug": "monza",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1642959,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "France",
"home_team_display_name": "Stade Brestois 29",
"home_team_id": 106,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/106.webp",
"home_team_name": "Stade Brestois 29",
"home_team_public_id": "3dafz6xJc793AR",
"home_team_slug": "stade-brestois-29",
"ht.home_team_slug": "stade-brestois-29",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Giao h\u1eefu C\u00e2u l\u1ea1c b\u1ed9",
"league_id": 667,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/667.webp",
"league_name": "Giao h\u1eefu C\u00e2u l\u1ea1c b\u1ed9",
"league_public_id": "3I6eEw8WBX7aoH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0zhtmXDEfgmphJ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.446,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0027,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3496,
"draw": 0.248,
"home": 0.4024
},
"model_prob": 0.3436,
"p_final": 0.3469
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2873,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0651,
"implied_prob": 0.248,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3496,
"draw": 0.248,
"home": 0.4024
},
"model_prob": 0.2762,
"p_final": 0.2561
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.435,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1164,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3496,
"draw": 0.248,
"home": 0.4024
},
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"p_final": 0.3927
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": -0.0425,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.3861,
"model_prob": 0.3436
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": 0.0082,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.2762
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0643,
"ev": -0.1446,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.3802
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1622,
"alpha_yes": 0.223,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0669,
"edge_yes": -0.0669,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.116,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0557,
"ev_yes": -0.16,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1029,
"implied_no": 0.3981,
"implied_yes": 0.6019,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1622,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.399,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4097
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.223,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.601,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5863
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4097,
"p_final_yes": 0.5863,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2164,
"alpha_under": 0.1967,
"best_over_odd": 1.72,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0888,
"edge_under": 0.0888,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.171,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0964,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.031,
"implied_over": 0.5708,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5658,
"implied_under": 0.4292,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4342,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5477
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.4342,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4507
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5477,
"p_final_under": 0.4507,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stade Brestois 29 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stade Brestois 29 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stade Brestois 29",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Monza, but the model still strongly favours Stade Brestois 29.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1164,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1446,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"draw_prob": 0.2762,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3802,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1164,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Stade Brestois 29"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1622,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0107,
"market_prob": 0.399,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1622,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.399,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4097
},
"p_final": 0.4097,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0557,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.223,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.601,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5863
}
},
"edge": 0.0669,
"ev": 0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0165,
"market_prob": 0.4342,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5477
},
"p_final": 0.4507,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.4342,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4507
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0888,
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1642959,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3436,
"draw": 0.2762,
"home": 0.3802
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Monza",
"home": "Stade Brestois 29"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.085729,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1164,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1446,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1642959,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T16:02:14.810884+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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