The model missed the final outcome (Peru U19 win 1–2).
The model had projected U19 Chile at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 U19 Chile Peru U19 ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U19 Chile | 36.1% | 42.9% | -6.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.3% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Peru U19 | 34.2% | 26.8% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Peru U19's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.8%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Peru U19 win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Peru U19.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned U19 Chile; match finished Peru U19
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on U19 Chile by 7.5 percentage points (28.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · U19 Chile 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Peru U19 34.2%
- xG · U19 Chile 1.32 — Peru U19 1.28
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · U19 Chile 2.11 · Draw 2.99 · Peru U19 3.38
- Implied 1X2 · U19 Chile 42.9% · Draw 30.3% · Peru U19 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · U19 Chile 2.11 · Draw 2.99 · Peru U19 3.38
- Implied 1X2 · U19 Chile 42.9% · Draw 30.3% · Peru U19 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Peru U19 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.38
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Peru U19 win · U19 Chile 1–2 Peru U19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ba702eaa9033b2cc6bd21cc0be4ab6a4bc45d345dc68892a1de47a3ac02375dd",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Peru U19",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Peru U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "U19 Chile",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0683,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.11
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "U19 Chile Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.33,
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"overround": 10.4,
"prob_edge": -11.3,
"value_pct": -23.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "U19 Chile or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Peru U19",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "U19 Chile or Peru U19",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "U19 Chile"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 15.6,
"implied_prob": 29.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Peru U19 Win",
"model_prob": 34.2,
"odds": 3.38
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Peru U19",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.79,
"draw": 30.29,
"home": 42.92
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 13:00:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 12:30:12",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "U19 Chile",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.92,
"gap_pp": -6.83,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.29,
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"kind": "1x2_d",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.79,
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"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.67,
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"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0133,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.4797,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"ev": -0.1048,
"implied_prob": 0.5203,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5057
},
"p_final": 0.4929,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.181,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.1,
"text": "-18.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.09,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10231.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1635,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.01,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4211,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1635,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.482,
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},
"p_final": 0.431,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0604,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0518,
"under": {
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"edge": -0.0137,
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"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5652
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0797,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.0,
"text": "+8.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0797,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10071.73,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1526,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.3,
"text": "-15.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0273,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2385,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "U19 Chile",
"sort_key": 1793.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"alert_team": "Peru U19",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.45,
"hero_label": "Peru U19",
"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"market_team": "U19 Chile",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "U19 Chile",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U19 Chile)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U19 Chile)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.09,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1573,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates U19 Chile at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies U19 Chile as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "U19 Chile",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side U19 Chile \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.12 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641720 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.12 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U19 Chile).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1526,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47393364928909953,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2385,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.45,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"steam_team": "Peru U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U19 Chile).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U19 Chile)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U19 Chile)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.09,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1573,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates U19 Chile at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies U19 Chile as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "U19 Chile",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side U19 Chile \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.12 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641720 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.12 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U19 Chile).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1526,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47393364928909953,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2385,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: U19 Chile 1.32 xG vs Peru U19 1.28 \u2192 U19 Chile 36.1%",
"Market: U19 Chile ~42.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Peru U19 odds \u2191 +12.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean U19 Chile with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.81,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "U19 Chile",
"market_prob": 42.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.64,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.45,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Peru U19",
"market_prob": 26.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.06,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.06,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.66,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.66,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Peru U19",
"market_prob_pct": 26.79,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Peru U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Peru U19\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.8%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "U19 Chile",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "U19 Chile \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: U19 Chile 1.32 xG vs Peru U19 1.28 \u2192 U19 Chile 36.1%",
"Market: U19 Chile ~42.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Peru U19 odds \u2191 +12.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean U19 Chile with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.45,
"hero_label": "Peru U19",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Peru U19 odds lengthened \u2191 +12.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Peru U19.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Peru U19.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Peru U19.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Peru U19."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Peru U19.",
"Recent line movement on Peru U19 (\u2191 +12.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Peru U19."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Peru U19",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.5,
"lead": "The model rates Peru U19 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.81,
"edge_pp": -6.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "U19 Chile",
"market_prob_pct": 42.92,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.64,
"edge_pp": -0.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.45,
"edge_pp": 7.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Peru U19",
"market_prob_pct": 26.79,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Peru U19.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers U19 Chile (42.9%).",
"However, Peru U19 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +12.7%, 5/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"U19 Chile \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.59,
"closing_odds": 3.38,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.59,
"entry_odds": 3.38,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 35m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Peru U19 (12.7%, 5/6) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.38",
"3.06",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.38 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 35m",
"pick_team": "Peru U19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.75,
3.38,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.75,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Peru U19 odds \u2191 +12.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Peru U19",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Peru U19 odds \u2191 +12.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Peru U19",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Peru U19",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_team_name": "Peru U19",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "peru-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Peru U19",
"away_team_id": 20536,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20536.webp",
"away_team_name": "Peru U19",
"away_team_public_id": "2njVOGOCer9tGk",
"away_team_slug": "peru-u19",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1641720,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "U19 Chile",
"home_team_id": 20533,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20533.webp",
"home_team_name": "U19 Chile",
"home_team_public_id": "5qySDaPWt35o7A",
"home_team_slug": "chile-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chile-u19",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "\u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i Th\u1ec3 thao Tr\u1ebb Nam M\u1ef9",
"league_id": 951,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/951.webp",
"league_name": "\u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i Th\u1ec3 thao Tr\u1ebb Nam M\u1ef9",
"league_public_id": "3mm25oGrMjSIm3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 13:00:00",
"public_id": "4EFLRWKPpPEXT4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2665,
"best_odd": 3.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.2679,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2679,
"draw": 0.3029,
"home": 0.4292
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2878
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4458,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.3029,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2679,
"draw": 0.3029,
"home": 0.4292
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3001
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4039,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.1526,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2679,
"draw": 0.3029,
"home": 0.4292
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4016
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.38,
"edge": 0.0465,
"ev": 0.1573,
"implied_prob": 0.2959,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": -0.0378,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.113,
"ev": -0.2384,
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2232,
"alpha_yes": 0.203,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0666,
"edge_yes": 0.0666,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.181,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1048,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_no": 0.5216,
"implied_yes": 0.4784,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1048,
"implied_prob": 0.5203,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5057
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.203,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4797,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4929
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5057,
"p_final_yes": 0.4929,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1635,
"alpha_under": 0.2249,
"best_over_odd": 2.24,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.6,
"edge_over": 0.0606,
"edge_under": -0.0606,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0797,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0518,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0956,
"implied_over": 0.4214,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4211,
"implied_under": 0.5786,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5789,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1635,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.431
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2249,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0137,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5789,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5652
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.431,
"p_final_under": 0.5652,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.09,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1573,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.09,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U19 Chile)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.09,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1573,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates U19 Chile at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies U19 Chile as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "U19 Chile",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side U19 Chile \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.12 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +16% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641720 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.12 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (U19 Chile).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Outlier price +16% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1526,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47393364928909953,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2385,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
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},
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},
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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"raw_edge_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
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}
},
"fixture_id": 1641720,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T13:00:19.922292+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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