AI correctly predicted the Yacoub El Mansour win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Yacoub El Mansour Yacoub El Mansour ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAC Kénitra | 31.5% | 28.6% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 34.6% | -5.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Yacoub El Mansour | 39.0% | 36.8% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 34.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.5%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Yacoub El Mansour win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yacoub El Mansour higher (44.1% vs model 39.0%, 5.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yacoub El Mansour win 0–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · KAC Kénitra 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Yacoub El Mansour 39.0%
- xG · KAC Kénitra 1.22 — Yacoub El Mansour 1.38
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · KAC Kénitra 3.11 · Draw 2.57 · Yacoub El Mansour 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · KAC Kénitra 28.6% · Draw 34.6% · Yacoub El Mansour 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · KAC Kénitra 3.11 · Draw 2.57 · Yacoub El Mansour 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · KAC Kénitra 28.6% · Draw 34.6% · Yacoub El Mansour 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Yacoub El Mansour win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Yacoub El Mansour win · KAC Kénitra 0–1 Yacoub El Mansour
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0871,
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},
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},
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"sort_key": 1778.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"alert_team": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.1,
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"hero_edge_pp": -5.08,
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"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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},
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yacoub El Mansour)."
},
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"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yacoub El Mansour at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yacoub El Mansour as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yacoub El Mansour).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0871,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3677,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0569,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.08,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.08,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"steam_team": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yacoub El Mansour).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yacoub El Mansour)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yacoub El Mansour)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yacoub El Mansour at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yacoub El Mansour as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yacoub El Mansour).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0871,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3677,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0569,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: KAC K\u00e9nitra 1.22 xG vs Yacoub El Mansour 1.38 \u2192 Yacoub El Mansour 39.0%",
"Market: Yacoub El Mansour ~36.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Yacoub El Mansour \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Yacoub El Mansour with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.87,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "KAC K\u00e9nitra",
"market_prob": 28.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.08,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"market_prob": 36.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.53,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.53,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.83,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.83,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.62,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Yacoub El Mansour"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 34.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.5%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.08,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Yacoub El Mansour \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: KAC K\u00e9nitra 1.22 xG vs Yacoub El Mansour 1.38 \u2192 Yacoub El Mansour 39.0%",
"Market: Yacoub El Mansour ~36.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Yacoub El Mansour \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Yacoub El Mansour with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.08,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Yacoub El Mansour odds shortened \u2193 -6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Yacoub El Mansour, with odds shortening by 6.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Yacoub El Mansour \u2014 odds shortened by 6.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Yacoub El Mansour, with odds shortening by 6.7%.",
"Buying interest on Yacoub El Mansour \u2014 odds shortened by 6.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Yacoub El Mansour has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.7%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Yacoub El Mansour."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.08,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.87,
"edge_pp": 2.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "KAC K\u00e9nitra",
"market_prob_pct": 28.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.08,
"edge_pp": -5.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.62,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.2,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"market_prob_pct": 36.77,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Yacoub El Mansour \u2014 odds shortened by 6.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Yacoub El Mansour (36.8%).",
"However, Yacoub El Mansour has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -6.7%, 7/8).",
"Yacoub El Mansour \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.91,
"closing_odds": 2.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.91,
"entry_odds": 2.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Yacoub El Mansour (6.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.71",
"2.42"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.42 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 29m",
"pick_team": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.42,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,6.2",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 7/8 sportsbooks on Yacoub El Mansour",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "yacoub-el-mansour",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"away_team_id": 25058,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/25058.webp",
"away_team_name": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"away_team_public_id": "4D3lJrKV2B31aC",
"away_team_slug": "yacoub-el-mansour",
"country_code": "MA",
"country_display_name": "Morocco",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ma.svg",
"country_id": 111,
"country_name": "Morocco",
"fixture_id": 1641169,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Morocco",
"home_team_display_name": "KAC K\u00e9nitra",
"home_team_id": 979,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/979.webp",
"home_team_name": "KAC K\u00e9nitra",
"home_team_public_id": "1BBOiIk0OGw0Xp",
"home_team_slug": "kac-kenitra",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kac-kenitra",
"league_country": "Morocco",
"league_country_display": "Morocco",
"league_display_name": "Botola 2",
"league_id": 201,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/201.webp",
"league_name": "Botola 2",
"league_public_id": "1413D8lfqq3YGD",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 16:00:00",
"public_id": "3UsdV69tO6Q5PU",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4352,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.3677,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3677,
"draw": 0.3462,
"home": 0.2861
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3772
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4157,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1645,
"implied_prob": 0.3462,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3677,
"draw": 0.3462,
"home": 0.2861
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3251
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.287,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.2861,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3677,
"draw": 0.3462,
"home": 0.2861
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2944
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0937,
"ev": -0.2408,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2112,
"alpha_yes": 0.192,
"best_no_odd": 1.68,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0983,
"edge_yes": 0.0983,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2339,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1175,
"ev_yes": 0.1424,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0447,
"implied_no": 0.5543,
"implied_yes": 0.4457,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.655,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.1175,
"implied_prob": 0.5539,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5332
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.192,
"best_odd": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.4461,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4649
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5332,
"p_final_yes": 0.4649,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1485,
"alpha_under": 0.2042,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.51,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1153,
"edge_under": -0.1153,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.043,
"ev_under": -0.2178,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1206,
"implied_over": 0.3667,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3655,
"implied_under": 0.6333,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6345,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3828
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6107
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3828,
"p_final_under": 0.6107,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yacoub El Mansour)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yacoub El Mansour at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yacoub El Mansour as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Yacoub El Mansour).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0871,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3677,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0569,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.3677,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Yacoub El Mansour"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.192,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.4461,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.655,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.1175,
"implied_prob": 0.5539,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5332
},
"p_final": 0.4649,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0447,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.4461,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0983,
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4457,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.3655,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
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"p_final": 0.3828
},
"p_final": 0.3828,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"under": {
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"implied_prob": 0.6345,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
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"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3667,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1641169,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4457,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Yacoub El Mansour",
"home": "KAC K\u00e9nitra"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0871,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3677,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0569,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641169,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T16:01:31.633169+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho KAC Kénitra & Yacoub El Mansour!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Botola 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wydad Fès | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Ittihad Khemisset | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Olympique Khouribga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Chabab Ben Guerir | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Yacoub El Mansour | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | El Massira | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | USM Oujda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Mouloudia Oujda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Olympique Dcheïra | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Olympique Safi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Union Sportive Boujaad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | KAC Kénitra | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Stade Marocain | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Chabab Mohammédia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Riadi Salmi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Chabab Atlétic Khenifra | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wydad Fès | 2 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Olympique Khouribga | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ittihad Khemisset | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 | Mouloudia Oujda | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Chabab Ben Guerir | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Yacoub El Mansour | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | El Massira | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | USM Oujda | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Olympique Dcheïra | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Stade Marocain | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Chabab Atlétic Khenifra | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 12 | Olympique Safi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | KAC Kénitra | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Chabab Mohammédia | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Riadi Salmi | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Union Sportive Boujaad | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
