The model missed the final outcome (Progreso win 2–1).
The model had projected Racing Montevideo at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Racing Montevideo Progreso ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 29.7% | 24.4% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.2% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Racing Montevideo | 40.9% | 47.4% | -6.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Racing Montevideo's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Progreso win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Racing Montevideo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Racing Montevideo; match finished Progreso
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Racing Montevideo by 6.4 percentage points (47.3% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:15 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Progreso 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Racing Montevideo 41.0%
- xG · Progreso 1.18 — Racing Montevideo 1.42
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Progreso 3.90 · Draw 3.37 · Racing Montevideo 2.01
- Implied 1X2 · Progreso 24.4% · Draw 28.2% · Racing Montevideo 47.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:15 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Progreso 3.90 · Draw 3.37 · Racing Montevideo 2.01
- Implied 1X2 · Progreso 24.4% · Draw 28.2% · Racing Montevideo 47.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Progreso win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
67/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Progreso win · Progreso 2–1 Racing Montevideo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2132e29444e300b87b8493b160b711393a6920ec141bdeb92da3b76b4884c583",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.4091,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.44,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.37,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"home_win_prob": 0.2969,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Racing Montevideo and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
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},
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"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.064,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"overround": 5.1,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 75.8,
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"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 69.3,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
"home_expected": 1.18,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Progreso or Draw",
"prob": 59.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Progreso or Racing Montevideo",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Progreso or Racing Montevideo",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.9,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 29.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Racing Montevideo"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 15.8,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
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"label": "Home",
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"odds": 3.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 47.35,
"draw": 28.24,
"home": 24.4
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:15:28",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:53:07",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Progreso",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.4,
"gap_pp": 5.25,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.24,
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},
{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.91,
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},
{
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],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.1816,
"has_edge": false,
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"market_odds": 6.6,
"market_prob": 0.1515,
"market_prob_pct": 15.2,
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"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
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"top5": [
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "0-2",
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.18,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0147,
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"no": {
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"ev": -0.1069,
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"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "-17.4%"
},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "+8.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10223.8,
"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0108,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4152,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
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"under": {
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"p_final": 0.5699
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1279,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.8,
"text": "+12.8%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1279,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10115.11,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1005,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.1,
"text": "-10.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4735,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0084,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.8,
"text": "+0.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1767,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"sort_key": 5206.72,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.44,
"hero_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 47.4,
"market_team": "Racing Montevideo",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Racing Montevideo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1565,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Montevideo at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Montevideo as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Montevideo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1005,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4735,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1767,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.44,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.44,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Progreso",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1565,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Montevideo at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Montevideo as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Montevideo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1005,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4735,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1767,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Progreso 1.18 xG vs Racing Montevideo 1.42 \u2192 Racing Montevideo 40.9%",
"Market: Racing Montevideo ~47.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Progreso +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Racing Montevideo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.29,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Progreso",
"market_prob": 24.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.16,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.44,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Racing Montevideo",
"market_prob": 47.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.71,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.71,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.31,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.31,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Racing Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 47.35,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Progreso"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Racing Montevideo\u0027s win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.44,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.5,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Racing Montevideo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Progreso 1.18 xG vs Racing Montevideo 1.42 \u2192 Racing Montevideo 40.9%",
"Market: Racing Montevideo ~47.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Progreso +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Racing Montevideo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.44,
"hero_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Racing Montevideo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Racing Montevideo relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Racing Montevideo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Racing Montevideo above the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.44,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Racing Montevideo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.29,
"edge_pp": 5.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Progreso",
"market_prob_pct": 24.4,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.16,
"edge_pp": 1.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.24,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.44,
"edge_pp": -6.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Racing Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 47.35,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Racing Montevideo relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Racing Montevideo (47.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Racing Montevideo, Market \u2192 Racing Montevideo, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Progreso",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Progreso",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "racing-montevideo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Racing Montevideo",
"away_team_id": 2359,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2359.webp",
"away_team_name": "Racing Montevideo",
"away_team_public_id": "2GXJoq580JtvtO",
"away_team_slug": "racing-montevideo",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_display_name": "Uruguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_id": 162,
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1641135,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Progreso",
"home_team_id": 2363,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2363.webp",
"home_team_name": "Progreso",
"home_team_public_id": "1LlktmQYleXKAX",
"home_team_slug": "progreso",
"ht.home_team_slug": "progreso",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_country_display": "Uruguay",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura - Apertura",
"league_id": 268,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/268.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura - Apertura",
"league_name_canonical": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura",
"league_public_id": "4kidSJ5ECYirOZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4l0RSu8CJSt0Ab",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Montevideo",
"venue_name": "Parque Abraham Paladino"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4068,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.4735,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4735,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.244
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4475
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2948,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": -0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.2824,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4735,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.244
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2858
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2764,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": 0.0084,
"implied_prob": 0.244,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4735,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.244
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2586
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.088,
"ev": -0.1768,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0095,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0401,
"ev": 0.1565,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2202,
"alpha_yes": 0.2002,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0731,
"edge_yes": 0.0731,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1738,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1069,
"ev_yes": 0.082,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0499,
"implied_no": 0.5321,
"implied_yes": 0.4679,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5163
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4823
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5163,
"p_final_yes": 0.4823,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.162,
"alpha_under": 0.2227,
"best_over_odd": 2.34,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.225,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.58,
"edge_over": 0.0671,
"edge_under": -0.0671,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1279,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.052,
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0996,
"implied_over": 0.4149,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4152,
"implied_under": 0.5851,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5848,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.162,
"best_odd": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4261
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2227,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0149,
"ev": -0.0996,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5699
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4261,
"p_final_under": 0.5699,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1565,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1279,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1565,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Montevideo at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Montevideo as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Montevideo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1005,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4735,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1767,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.4735,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Racing Montevideo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.4676,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5163
},
"p_final": 0.4823,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0499,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4823
}
},
"edge": 0.0731,
"ev": 0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.162,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.4152,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.162,
"best_odd": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.052,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4261
},
"p_final": 0.4261,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.052,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2227,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0149,
"ev": -0.0996,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5699
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0671,
"ev": 0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1641135,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1279,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4096,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Racing Montevideo",
"home": "Progreso"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044362,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1005,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4735,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1767,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641135,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:15:31.077030+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Progreso & Racing Montevideo!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera División - Apertura — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peñarol | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 55 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 53 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 49 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 | Central Español | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 34 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 12 | Cerro | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 32 |
| 14 | Boston River | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 15 | Progreso | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 16 | Danubio | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 29 | 51 | 34 | +17 | 53 |
| 2 | Peñarol | 29 | 48 | 24 | +24 | 58 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 46 | 27 | +19 | 55 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 30 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 49 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 39 | 28 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 29 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 34 |
| 7 | Racing Montevideo | 30 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 53 |
| 8 | Wanderers | 29 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 44 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 36 |
| 10 | Central Español | 30 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Boston River | 30 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 32 |
| 14 | Progreso | 30 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 |
| 15 | Danubio | 29 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 26 |
| 16 | Cerro | 30 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 33 |
