The model missed the final outcome (Vanuatu win 4–1).
The model had projected New Caledonia at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 New Caledonia Vanuatu ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanuatu | 33.8% | 36.1% | -2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.1% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| New Caledonia | 36.6% | 37.8% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Vanuatu win 4–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Vanuatu win 4–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vanuatu 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · New Caledonia 36.6%
- xG · Vanuatu 1.27 — New Caledonia 1.33
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vanuatu 2.64 · Draw 3.65 · New Caledonia 2.52
- Implied 1X2 · Vanuatu 36.1% · Draw 26.1% · New Caledonia 37.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vanuatu 2.64 · Draw 3.65 · New Caledonia 2.52
- Implied 1X2 · Vanuatu 36.1% · Draw 26.1% · New Caledonia 37.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vanuatu win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
82/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Vanuatu win · Vanuatu 4–1 New Caledonia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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},
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},
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0607,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0105,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -1.1,
"text": "-1.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0777,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "New Caledonia",
"sort_key": 1797.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.54,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.8,
"market_team": "New Caledonia",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "New Caledonia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New Caledonia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New Caledonia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates New Caledonia at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies New Caledonia as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "New Caledonia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New Caledonia).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0607,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0777,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.54,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Vanuatu",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New Caledonia).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New Caledonia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New Caledonia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates New Caledonia at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies New Caledonia as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "New Caledonia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New Caledonia).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0607,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0777,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vanuatu 1.27 xG vs New Caledonia 1.33 \u2192 New Caledonia 36.6%",
"Market: New Caledonia ~37.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Vanuatu +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean New Caledonia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.32,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Vanuatu",
"market_prob": 36.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.22,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "New Caledonia",
"market_prob": 37.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.76,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.76,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.1,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Vanuatu"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "New Caledonia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "New Caledonia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vanuatu 1.27 xG vs New Caledonia 1.33 \u2192 New Caledonia 36.6%",
"Market: New Caledonia ~37.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Vanuatu +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean New Caledonia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.54,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Vanuatu has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Vanuatu.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Vanuatu has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Vanuatu."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Vanuatu has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Vanuatu."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.32,
"edge_pp": -2.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vanuatu",
"market_prob_pct": 36.09,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.54,
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.22,
"edge_pp": -1.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "New Caledonia",
"market_prob_pct": 37.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Vanuatu.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers New Caledonia (37.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 New Caledonia, Market \u2192 New Caledonia, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.4,
"closing_odds": 3.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.4,
"entry_odds": 3.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
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},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Vanuatu",
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},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.5,
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"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "New Caledonia",
"away_team_id": 5163,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5163.webp",
"away_team_name": "New Caledonia",
"away_team_public_id": "1FfwLAppjQboIZ",
"away_team_slug": "new-caledonia",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1640505,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Vanuatu",
"home_team_display_name": "Vanuatu",
"home_team_id": 5170,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5170.webp",
"home_team_name": "Vanuatu",
"home_team_public_id": "4QFCr78uPmgm3D",
"home_team_slug": "vanuatu",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vanuatu",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Giao h\u1eefu",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Giao h\u1eefu",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 04:00:00",
"public_id": "0Qip8vcKtFpl1L",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4418,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"joint_probs": {
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"draw": 0.261,
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},
"model_prob": 0.366,
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},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.284,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
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"ev": -0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.261,
"joint_probs": {
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},
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},
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"home": {
"alpha": 0.4342,
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"active": false,
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"joint_probs": {
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"draw": 0.261,
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},
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}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.3968,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0225,
"ev": 0.0821,
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},
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"home": {
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"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0476,
"edge_yes": -0.0476,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0829,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0569,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0912,
"implied_no": 0.4074,
"implied_yes": 0.5926,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1675,
"best_odd": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0569,
"implied_prob": 0.4086,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4164
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2303,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.5914,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5807
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4164,
"p_final_yes": 0.5807,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2202,
"alpha_under": 0.2002,
"best_over_odd": 1.77,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0719,
"edge_under": 0.0719,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1469,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0939,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0357,
"implied_over": 0.5539,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5556,
"implied_under": 0.4461,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4444,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5394
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4592
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5394,
"p_final_under": 0.4592,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New Caledonia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates New Caledonia at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies New Caledonia as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "New Caledonia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (New Caledonia).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0607,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0777,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "New Caledonia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0078,
"market_prob": 0.4086,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1675,
"best_odd": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0569,
"implied_prob": 0.4086,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4164
},
"p_final": 0.4164,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0569,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2303,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.5914,
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},
"edge": 0.0476,
"ev": 0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.4074,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.4444,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5394
},
"p_final": 0.4592,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4592
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0719,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4461,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1640505,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "New Caledonia",
"home": "Vanuatu"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4461,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0607,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0777,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640505,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T03:59:08.314542+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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