The model missed the final outcome (CA River Plate win 3–0).
The model had projected Colón at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Colón CA River Plate ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA River Plate | 31.9% | 44.9% | -13.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.8% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Colón | 38.5% | 27.3% | +11.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates CA River Plate's win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là CA River Plate win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about CA River Plate than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Colón; match finished CA River Plate
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Colón by 13.0 percentage points (51.5% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · CA River Plate 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Colón 38.5%
- xG · CA River Plate 1.23 — Colón 1.37
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · CA River Plate 2.04 · Draw 3.29 · Colón 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · CA River Plate 44.9% · Draw 27.8% · Colón 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · CA River Plate 2.04 · Draw 3.29 · Colón 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · CA River Plate 44.9% · Draw 27.8% · Colón 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CA River Plate win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
12/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
CA River Plate win · CA River Plate 3–0 Colón
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Col\u00f3n and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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{
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"key": "12",
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{
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],
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n).",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0099,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.0,
"text": "+1.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2726,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0099,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.0,
"text": "+1.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Col\u00f3n",
"sort_key": 5207.92,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"alert_team": "Col\u00f3n",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.96,
"hero_label": "CA River Plate",
"market_prob_pct": 27.3,
"market_team": "CA River Plate",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Col\u00f3n",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.039,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2924,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Col\u00f3n at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Col\u00f3n as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Col\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Col\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.05 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640280 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.05 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.9% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.9% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n).",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0099,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2726,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.96,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"steam_team": "Col\u00f3n",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.039,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2924,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Col\u00f3n at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Col\u00f3n as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Col\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Col\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.05 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640280 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.05 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.9% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.9% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n).",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0099,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2726,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CA River Plate 1.23 xG vs Col\u00f3n 1.37 \u2192 Col\u00f3n 38.5%",
"Market: CA River Plate ~27.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Col\u00f3n \u2193 -8.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Col\u00f3n with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.96,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "CA River Plate",
"market_prob": 44.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.73,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.23,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Col\u00f3n",
"market_prob": 27.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.9,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.2,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.2,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "CA River Plate",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Col\u00f3n"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates CA River Plate\u0027s win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Col\u00f3n",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Col\u00f3n \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CA River Plate 1.23 xG vs Col\u00f3n 1.37 \u2192 Col\u00f3n 38.5%",
"Market: CA River Plate ~27.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Col\u00f3n \u2193 -8.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Col\u00f3n with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.96,
"hero_label": "CA River Plate",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Col\u00f3n odds shortened \u2193 -8.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Col\u00f3n, with odds shortening by 8.6%. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about CA River Plate than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about CA River Plate than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Col\u00f3n, with odds shortening by 8.6%. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors CA River Plate more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Col\u00f3n has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 8.6%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "CA River Plate",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices CA River Plate higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.96,
"edge_pp": -12.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "CA River Plate",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.73,
"edge_pp": 1.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.23,
"edge_pp": 11.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Col\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 27.26,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers CA River Plate (27.3%).",
"Col\u00f3n has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -8.6%, 1/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Col\u00f3n, Market \u2192 CA River Plate, Recent sharp money \u2192 Col\u00f3n.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
"closing_odds": 2.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.02,
"entry_odds": 2.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Col\u00f3n (8.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.35",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.50 \u2192 3.15 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h",
"pick_team": "Col\u00f3n",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.36,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,8.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Col\u00f3n",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Col\u00f3n",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Col\u00f3n",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Col\u00f3n",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "colon",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Col\u00f3n",
"away_team_id": 15628,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15628.webp",
"away_team_name": "Col\u00f3n",
"away_team_public_id": "1bs9CIYFbOxrvn",
"away_team_slug": "colon",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_display_name": "Uruguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_id": 162,
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1640280,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_display_name": "CA River Plate",
"home_team_id": 2351,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2351.webp",
"home_team_name": "CA River Plate",
"home_team_public_id": "3sWKCRmkgacL43",
"home_team_slug": "ca-river-plate",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ca-river-plate",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_country_display": "Uruguay",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_id": 269,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/269.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_public_id": "0bBMfWWLSWSuDN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 19:00:00",
"public_id": "45tk5cZZndLGAD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Montevideo",
"venue_name": "Parque Federico Omar Saroldi"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2496,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": 0.0099,
"implied_prob": 0.2726,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2726,
"draw": 0.2784,
"home": 0.449
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3006
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2921,
"best_odd": 3.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.2784,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2726,
"draw": 0.2784,
"home": 0.449
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2835
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3626,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.047,
"ev": -0.1798,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2726,
"draw": 0.2784,
"home": 0.449
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.402
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": 0.087,
"ev": 0.2924,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.29,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0266,
"implied_prob": 0.304,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.1707,
"ev": -0.3482,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.212,
"alpha_yes": 0.212,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.042,
"edge_yes": 0.042,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1473,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1051,
"ev_yes": 0.039,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0754,
"implied_no": 0.498,
"implied_yes": 0.502,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.1051,
"implied_prob": 0.4945,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4863
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.5055,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5137
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4863,
"p_final_yes": 0.5137,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.216,
"alpha_under": 0.2376,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.015,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.685,
"edge_over": 0.029,
"edge_under": -0.029,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0708,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.093,
"implied_over": 0.453,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4554,
"implied_under": 0.547,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5446,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 2.015,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4612
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2376,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.5446,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5383
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4612,
"p_final_under": 0.5383,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.039,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2924,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.039,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.039,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2924,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Col\u00f3n at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Col\u00f3n as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Col\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Col\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.05 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640280 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.05 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.9% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.9% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n).",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Col\u00f3n).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0099,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2726,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.039,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.502,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": 0.0099,
"implied_prob": 0.2726,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Col\u00f3n"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0082,
"market_prob": 0.5055,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.1051,
"implied_prob": 0.4945,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4863
},
"p_final": 0.5137,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0754,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.212,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.5055,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5137
}
},
"edge": 0.042,
"ev": 0.039,
"implied_prob": 0.502,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.015,
"edge": 0.0057,
"market_prob": 0.4554,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 2.015,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4612
},
"p_final": 0.4612,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0708,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2376,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.5446,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5383
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.029,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.453,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1640280,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.039,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Col\u00f3n",
"home": "CA River Plate"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0099,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2726,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2923,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640280,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T18:59:56.928493+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda División — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Fenix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar Misiones | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenix | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Oriental | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerrito | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Rentistas | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | CA River Plate | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | La Luz | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Paysandu | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Miramar Misiones | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
