AI correctly predicted the Curaçao win.
The match finished 3–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (7 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Curaçao Curaçao ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-4 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa Rica | 33.8% | 59.9% | -26.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.7% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Curaçao | 36.6% | 16.3% | +20.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Costa Rica's win probability at 59.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 26.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Curaçao win 3–4).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Curaçao higher (62.8% vs model 36.6%, 26.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Curaçao win 3–4).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Costa Rica 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Curaçao 36.6%
- xG · Costa Rica 1.27 — Curaçao 1.33
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Costa Rica 1.58 · Draw 3.99 · Curaçao 5.80
- Implied 1X2 · Costa Rica 59.9% · Draw 23.7% · Curaçao 16.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Costa Rica 1.58 · Draw 3.99 · Curaçao 5.80
- Implied 1X2 · Costa Rica 59.9% · Draw 23.7% · Curaçao 16.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Curaçao win · 3–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
50/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.58
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Curaçao win · Costa Rica 3–4 Curaçao
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"alert_team": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 26.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.17,
"hero_label": "Costa Rica",
"market_prob_pct": 16.3,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 26.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cura\u00e7ao), but pricing still diverges by 26.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cura\u00e7ao), but pricing still diverges by 26.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011227000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cura\u00e7ao at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cura\u00e7ao as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cura\u00e7ao), but pricing still diverges by 26.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1107,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.8,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1633,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1724137931034483,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+112.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 26.17,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 26.17,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"steam_team": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Cura\u00e7ao), but pricing still diverges by 26.2 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cura\u00e7ao), but pricing still diverges by 26.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cura\u00e7ao), but pricing still diverges by 26.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011227000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cura\u00e7ao at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cura\u00e7ao as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cura\u00e7ao), but pricing still diverges by 26.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1107,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.8,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1633,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1724137931034483,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+112.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Costa Rica 1.27 xG vs Cura\u00e7ao 1.33 \u2192 Cura\u00e7ao 36.6%",
"Market: Costa Rica ~16.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Cura\u00e7ao \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Cura\u00e7ao, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -26.17,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Costa Rica",
"market_prob": 59.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.91,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.26,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"market_prob": 16.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.09,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.29,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.29,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -26.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Costa Rica",
"market_prob_pct": 59.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cura\u00e7ao"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Costa Rica\u0027s win probability at 59.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 26.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 26.17,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 16.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.3,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Cura\u00e7ao \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+20.3 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Costa Rica 1.27 xG vs Cura\u00e7ao 1.33 \u2192 Cura\u00e7ao 36.6%",
"Market: Costa Rica ~16.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Cura\u00e7ao \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Cura\u00e7ao, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.17,
"hero_label": "Costa Rica",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Cura\u00e7ao odds shortened \u2193 -6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 26.17,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Costa Rica",
"largest_gap_pp": -26.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Costa Rica higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 26.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -26.17,
"edge_pp": -26.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Costa Rica",
"market_prob_pct": 59.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.91,
"edge_pp": 5.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.73,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 20.26,
"edge_pp": 20.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"market_prob_pct": 16.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Costa Rica (16.3%).",
"However, Cura\u00e7ao has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -6.7%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cura\u00e7ao, Market \u2192 Costa Rica, Recent sharp money \u2192 Cura\u00e7ao.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 63.29,
"closing_odds": 1.58,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 63.29,
"entry_odds": 1.58,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 26m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Cura\u00e7ao (6.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.80",
"5.00",
"4.20"
],
"display": "5.50 \u2192 4.17 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 26m",
"pick_team": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.17"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
5.8,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,14.6 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 8/9 sportsbooks on Cura\u00e7ao",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 26.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "curacao",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"away_team_id": 5530,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5530.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"away_team_public_id": "0A0aWf5DgnrBp2",
"away_team_slug": "curacao",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1639937,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Costa-Rica",
"home_team_display_name": "Costa Rica",
"home_team_id": 29,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/29.webp",
"home_team_name": "Costa Rica",
"home_team_public_id": "0rGT2TgLMjkZN2",
"home_team_slug": "costa-rica-29",
"ht.home_team_slug": "costa-rica-29",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "CONCACAF Nations League",
"league_id": 536,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/536.webp",
"league_name": "CONCACAF Nations League",
"league_public_id": "3VxzyWtiGZmmhf",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 02:00:00",
"public_id": "1ftqV9B3HebAgM",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 5.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0282,
"ev": 0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.1633,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1633,
"draw": 0.2373,
"home": 0.5994
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.1915
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2734,
"best_odd": 3.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": 0.0115,
"implied_prob": 0.2373,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1633,
"draw": 0.2373,
"home": 0.5994
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2535
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3644,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0954,
"ev": -0.2037,
"implied_prob": 0.5994,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1633,
"draw": 0.2373,
"home": 0.5994
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.504
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.8,
"edge": 0.1936,
"ev": 1.1227,
"implied_prob": 0.1724,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.99,
"edge": 0.0459,
"ev": 0.1829,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.2954,
"ev": -0.4667,
"implied_prob": 0.6329,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2215,
"alpha_yes": 0.2014,
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0729,
"edge_yes": 0.0729,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1673,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1058,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0512,
"implied_no": 0.5279,
"implied_yes": 0.4721,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.755,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5095
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4891
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5095,
"p_final_yes": 0.4891,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2294,
"alpha_under": 0.2524,
"best_over_odd": 2.07,
"best_under_odd": 1.78,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.74,
"edge_over": 0.0209,
"edge_under": -0.0209,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0023,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0563,
"ev_under": -0.078,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0737,
"implied_over": 0.4611,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4628,
"implied_under": 0.5389,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5372,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.4628,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4672
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2524,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0737,
"implied_prob": 0.5372,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5324
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4672,
"p_final_under": 0.5324,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1227,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1445,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.1,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cura\u00e7ao), but pricing still diverges by 26.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1445,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011227000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cura\u00e7ao at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cura\u00e7ao as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cura\u00e7ao), but pricing still diverges by 26.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1107,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.8,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1633,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1724137931034483,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+112.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.8,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0282,
"ev": 0.1107,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1633,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cura\u00e7ao"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0141,
"market_prob": 0.475,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.755,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5095
},
"p_final": 0.4891,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0512,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4891
}
},
"edge": 0.0729,
"ev": 0.1445,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4721,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0044,
"market_prob": 0.4628,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.4628,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4672
},
"p_final": 0.4672,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0563,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2524,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0737,
"implied_prob": 0.5372,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5324
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0023,
"implied_prob": 0.4611,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1639937,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1445,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cura\u00e7ao",
"home": "Costa Rica"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4721,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1107,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.8,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1633,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1724137931034483,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+112.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639937,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T01:59:16.199211+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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