AI correctly predicted the Dynamos win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Dynamos Dynamos ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamos | 37.5% | 42.9% | -5.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.1% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Herentals | 32.9% | 25.0% | +7.8 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Herentals's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.0%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Dynamos win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Herentals.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dynamos more conservatively (29.6% vs model 37.5%, 7.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dynamos win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dynamos 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Herentals 32.9%
- xG · Dynamos 1.35 — Herentals 1.25
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dynamos 2.10 · Draw 2.80 · Herentals 3.60
- Implied 1X2 · Dynamos 42.9% · Draw 32.1% · Herentals 25.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dynamos 2.10 · Draw 2.80 · Herentals 3.60
- Implied 1X2 · Dynamos 42.9% · Draw 32.1% · Herentals 25.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dynamos win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
60/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Dynamos win · Dynamos 1–0 Herentals
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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},
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{
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"text": "+25%+"
},
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10292.95,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.146,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.6,
"text": "-14.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.025,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Dynamos",
"sort_key": 1793.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.85,
"hero_label": "Herentals",
"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"market_team": "Dynamos",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Dynamos",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dynamos)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dynamos)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dynamos at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dynamos as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dynamos",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dynamos).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.146,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.85,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Dynamos",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dynamos).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dynamos)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dynamos)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dynamos at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dynamos as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dynamos",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dynamos).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.146,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dynamos 1.35 xG vs Herentals 1.25 \u2192 Dynamos 37.5%",
"Market: Dynamos ~42.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Dynamos +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dynamos with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.32,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Dynamos",
"market_prob": 42.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.53,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.85,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Herentals",
"market_prob": 25.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.34,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.34,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.49,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.49,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Herentals",
"market_prob_pct": 25.0,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Dynamos"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Herentals\u0027s win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.0%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Dynamos",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Dynamos \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dynamos 1.35 xG vs Herentals 1.25 \u2192 Dynamos 37.5%",
"Market: Dynamos ~42.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Dynamos +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dynamos with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.85,
"hero_label": "Herentals",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Dynamos has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Herentals.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Dynamos.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Herentals.",
"However, Dynamos has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Dynamos."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Herentals.",
"At the same time, Dynamos has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Dynamos."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Herentals",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.8,
"lead": "The model rates Herentals considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.32,
"edge_pp": -5.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dynamos",
"market_prob_pct": 42.86,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.53,
"edge_pp": -2.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.14,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.85,
"edge_pp": 7.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Herentals",
"market_prob_pct": 25.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Dynamos.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Dynamos (42.9%).",
"Dynamos \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.78,
"closing_odds": 3.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.78,
"entry_odds": 3.6,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Dynamos",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Dynamos",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "herentals",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Herentals",
"away_team_id": 5223,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5223.webp",
"away_team_name": "Herentals",
"away_team_public_id": "3888xVChEbCKH9",
"away_team_slug": "herentals",
"country_code": "ZW",
"country_display_name": "Zimbabwe",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/zw.svg",
"country_id": 171,
"country_name": "Zimbabwe",
"fixture_id": 1639715,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Zimbabwe",
"home_team_display_name": "Dynamos",
"home_team_id": 5221,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5221.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dynamos",
"home_team_public_id": "3drPSBRlQvkun4",
"home_team_slug": "dynamos",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dynamos",
"league_country": "Zimbabwe",
"league_country_display": "Zimbabwe",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Zimbabwe",
"league_id": 401,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/401.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Zimbabwe",
"league_public_id": "1CUYO1VMNceVRV",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 13:00:00",
"public_id": "4vxZUPBdcbb9nI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Harare",
"venue_name": "Rufaro Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2646,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.025,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.25,
"draw": 0.3214,
"home": 0.4286
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2708
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4326,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1312,
"implied_prob": 0.3214,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.25,
"draw": 0.3214,
"home": 0.4286
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3103
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4143,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.146,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.25,
"draw": 0.3214,
"home": 0.4286
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4067
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0509,
"ev": 0.1833,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": -0.0615,
"ev": -0.1722,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.1005,
"ev": -0.2111,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1978,
"alpha_yes": 0.1439,
"best_no_odd": 1.56,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1349,
"edge_yes": 0.1349,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2902,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1283,
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0445,
"implied_no": 0.5899,
"implied_yes": 0.4101,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1283,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5624
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1439,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4304
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5624,
"p_final_yes": 0.4304,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1413,
"alpha_under": 0.1943,
"best_over_odd": 2.75,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.705,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.385,
"edge_over": 0.1434,
"edge_under": -0.1434,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3255,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0292,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1226,
"implied_over": 0.3386,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3386,
"implied_under": 0.6614,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6614,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1413,
"best_odd": 2.705,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0292,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3589
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1943,
"best_odd": 1.385,
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.1226,
"implied_prob": 0.6614,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6335
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3589,
"p_final_under": 0.6335,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dynamos)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dynamos at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dynamos as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dynamos",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dynamos).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.146,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.146,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Dynamos"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1439,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0193,
"market_prob": 0.4111,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1283,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5624
},
"p_final": 0.4304,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1439,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4304
}
},
"edge": 0.1349,
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4101,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1413,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.705,
"edge": 0.0203,
"market_prob": 0.3386,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1413,
"best_odd": 2.705,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0292,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3589
},
"p_final": 0.3589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0292,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1943,
"best_odd": 1.385,
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.1226,
"implied_prob": 0.6614,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6335
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1434,
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1639715,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3255,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Herentals",
"home": "Dynamos"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.123334,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.4101,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.146,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639715,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T13:08:28.570887+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Giải Ngoại hạng Zimbabwe — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scotland Mabvuku | 29 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 61 |
| 2 | Hardrock | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 60 |
| 3 | Dynamos | 29 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 50 |
| 4 | Ngezi Platinum | 29 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 49 |
| 5 | Herentals | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 48 |
| 6 | CAPS United | 29 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 47 |
| 7 | Highlanders | 29 | 9 | 15 | 5 | 42 |
| 8 | Chicken Inn | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 41 |
| 9 | MWOS | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 39 |
| 10 | Platinum FC | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 39 |
| 11 | Simba Bhora | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 35 |
| 12 | Bulawayo Chiefs | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 31 |
| 13 | Kariba | 29 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 14 | Hunters | 29 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 15 | Agama | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 25 |
| 16 | Triangle United | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 23 |
| 17 | TelOne FC | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 |
| 18 | Manica Diamonds | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardrock | 29 | 51 | 19 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Scotland Mabvuku | 29 | 45 | 10 | +35 | 61 |
| 3 | Dynamos | 29 | 39 | 21 | +18 | 50 |
| 4 | Ngezi Platinum | 29 | 35 | 25 | +10 | 49 |
| 5 | CAPS United | 29 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 47 |
| 6 | Herentals | 29 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 48 |
| 7 | Simba Bhora | 29 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 35 |
| 8 | MWOS | 29 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 39 |
| 9 | Highlanders | 29 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 42 |
| 10 | Bulawayo Chiefs | 29 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 31 |
| 11 | Chicken Inn | 29 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 41 |
| 12 | Hunters | 29 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | Triangle United | 29 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
| 14 | TelOne FC | 29 | 20 | 42 | -22 | 21 |
| 15 | Platinum FC | 29 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 39 |
| 16 | Kariba | 29 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 29 |
| 17 | Agama | 29 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 25 |
| 18 | Manica Diamonds | 29 | 14 | 44 | -30 | 19 |
