The model missed the final outcome (Burundi U20 win 2–0).
The model had projected Kenya U20 at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Kenya U20 Burundi U20 ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burundi U20 | 30.6% | 24.5% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 20.7% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Kenya U20 | 39.9% | 54.8% | -14.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Kenya U20's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Burundi U20 win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Kenya U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Kenya U20; match finished Burundi U20
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kenya U20 by 14.9 percentage points (54.8% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Burundi U20 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Kenya U20 40.0%
- xG · Burundi U20 1.20 — Kenya U20 1.40
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Burundi U20 3.70 · Draw 4.37 · Kenya U20 1.65
- Implied 1X2 · Burundi U20 24.5% · Draw 20.7% · Kenya U20 54.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Burundi U20 3.70 · Draw 4.37 · Kenya U20 1.65
- Implied 1X2 · Burundi U20 24.5% · Draw 20.7% · Kenya U20 54.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Burundi U20 win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
25/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Burundi U20 win · Burundi U20 2–0 Kenya U20
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.5,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Kenya U20",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"pick": "Yes",
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
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"match_winner": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-17 17:00:01",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-17 16:31:16",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"top5": [
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{
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{
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"text": "-21.9%"
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+16.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10298.95,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2095,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.9,
"text": "-20.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0286,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -2.9,
"text": "-2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3405,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Kenya U20",
"sort_key": 1792.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2177,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0047,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0756,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4402
},
"p_final": 0.4402,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0403,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0756,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2395,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.0938,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5594
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0312,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.1,
"text": "-3.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1041,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.4,
"text": "-10.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0312,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 1792.2,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.9,
"hero_label": "Kenya U20",
"market_prob_pct": 54.8,
"market_team": "Kenya U20",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Kenya U20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kenya U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kenya U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2881,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 45,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kenya U20 at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kenya U20 as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kenya U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kenya U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639475 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kenya U20).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2095,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3405,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "1/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.9,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Burundi U20",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kenya U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kenya U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2881,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 45,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kenya U20 at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kenya U20 as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kenya U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kenya U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639475 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kenya U20).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2095,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3405,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Burundi U20 1.20 xG vs Kenya U20 1.40 \u2192 Kenya U20 39.9%",
"Market: Kenya U20 ~54.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Burundi U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Kenya U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.12,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Burundi U20",
"market_prob": 24.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.77,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.9,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Kenya U20",
"market_prob": 54.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.8,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.8,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.04,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.04,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Kenya U20",
"market_prob_pct": 54.84,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Burundi U20"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Kenya U20\u0027s win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kenya U20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Kenya U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Burundi U20 1.20 xG vs Kenya U20 1.40 \u2192 Kenya U20 39.9%",
"Market: Kenya U20 ~54.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Burundi U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Kenya U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.9,
"hero_label": "Kenya U20",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Kenya U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Kenya U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Kenya U20 than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Kenya U20 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Kenya U20 (pricing gap 14.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Kenya U20",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Kenya U20 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.12,
"edge_pp": 6.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Burundi U20",
"market_prob_pct": 24.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.77,
"edge_pp": 8.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.9,
"edge_pp": -14.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Kenya U20",
"market_prob_pct": 54.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Kenya U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Kenya U20 (54.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kenya U20, Market \u2192 Kenya U20, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.61,
"closing_odds": 1.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.61,
"entry_odds": 1.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Burundi U20",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Burundi U20",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "kenya-u20",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kenya U20",
"away_team_id": 11034,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11034.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kenya U20",
"away_team_public_id": "50F9flruVDIvy9",
"away_team_slug": "kenya-u20",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1639475,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Burundi",
"home_team_display_name": "Burundi U20",
"home_team_id": 11022,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11022.webp",
"home_team_name": "Burundi U20",
"home_team_public_id": "3PQVD16ZpCe7fI",
"home_team_slug": "burundi-u20",
"ht.home_team_slug": "burundi-u20",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch U20 CECAFA",
"league_id": 1159,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1159.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch U20 CECAFA",
"league_public_id": "4pFpPOkWxuzFGZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 17:00:00",
"public_id": "6264vX9iAS3d8b",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4662,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0693,
"ev": -0.2095,
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5484,
"draw": 0.2071,
"home": 0.2446
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4791
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1737,
"best_odd": 4.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.2071,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5484,
"draw": 0.2071,
"home": 0.2446
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2223
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2725,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.2446,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5484,
"draw": 0.2071,
"home": 0.2446
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2612
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.2064,
"ev": -0.3405,
"implied_prob": 0.6061,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.37,
"edge": 0.0659,
"ev": 0.2881,
"implied_prob": 0.2288,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.1306,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.3056
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2177,
"alpha_yes": 0.2395,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0204,
"edge_yes": -0.0204,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0312,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0756,
"ev_yes": -0.1041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0938,
"implied_no": 0.4366,
"implied_yes": 0.5634,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2177,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0756,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4402
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2395,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.0938,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5594
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4402,
"p_final_yes": 0.5594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2112,
"alpha_under": 0.192,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.18,
"edge_over": -0.098,
"edge_under": 0.098,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1166,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.043,
"implied_over": 0.58,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5798,
"implied_under": 0.42,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4202,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.5798,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5591
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.192,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.439
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5591,
"p_final_under": 0.439,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2881,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kenya U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2881,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 45,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kenya U20 at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kenya U20 as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kenya U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kenya U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639475 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "45 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kenya U20).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2095,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
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"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T17:00:06.119452+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Giải Vô địch U20 CECAFA — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U20 Tanzania | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Rwanda U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | Ethiopia U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U20 Tanzania | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Rwanda U20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 3 | Ethiopia U20 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
