AI correctly predicted the Al Wakrah win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Al Wakrah Al Wakrah ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Wakrah | 36.6% | 44.8% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Al-Sailiya | 33.8% | 28.9% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Al Wakrah's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Al Wakrah win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Al Wakrah. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al Wakrah higher (44.8% vs model 36.6%, 8.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al Wakrah win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Wakrah 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Al-Sailiya 33.8%
- xG · Al Wakrah 1.33 — Al-Sailiya 1.27
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Wakrah 2.00 · Draw 3.40 · Al-Sailiya 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Al Wakrah 44.8% · Draw 26.3% · Al-Sailiya 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Al Wakrah 2.00 · Draw 3.40 · Al-Sailiya 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Al Wakrah 44.8% · Draw 26.3% · Al-Sailiya 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Wakrah win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
59/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Al Wakrah win · Al Wakrah 1–0 Al-Sailiya
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
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"selection": null,
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}
},
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"pick": "Yes",
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{
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"match_winner": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 15:01:04",
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"has_data": true,
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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"home_xg": 1.33,
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{
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.001,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1691,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.9,
"text": "-16.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0625,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.2,
"text": "-6.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Al Wakrah",
"sort_key": 1784.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.18,
"hero_label": "Al Wakrah",
"market_prob_pct": 44.8,
"market_team": "Al Wakrah",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Al Wakrah",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wakrah)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wakrah)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Wakrah at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Wakrah as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Wakrah",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wakrah).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1691,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.18,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.18,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Al Wakrah",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wakrah).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wakrah)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wakrah)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Wakrah at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Wakrah as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Wakrah",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wakrah).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1691,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Wakrah 1.33 xG vs Al-Sailiya 1.27 \u2192 Al Wakrah 36.6%",
"Market: Al Wakrah ~44.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Al Wakrah +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al Wakrah with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.18,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Al Wakrah",
"market_prob": 44.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.88,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Al-Sailiya",
"market_prob": 28.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.82,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.73,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.73,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Al Wakrah",
"market_prob_pct": 44.77,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Al Wakrah"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Al Wakrah\u0027s win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.18,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Al Wakrah",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Al Wakrah \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Wakrah 1.33 xG vs Al-Sailiya 1.27 \u2192 Al Wakrah 36.6%",
"Market: Al Wakrah ~44.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Al Wakrah +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al Wakrah with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.18,
"hero_label": "Al Wakrah",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Al Wakrah. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Al Wakrah.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Al Wakrah. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Al Wakrah."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Al Wakrah above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Al Wakrah (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Al Wakrah."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.18,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Al Wakrah",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Al Wakrah higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.18,
"edge_pp": -8.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Al Wakrah",
"market_prob_pct": 44.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.3,
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.88,
"edge_pp": 4.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Al-Sailiya",
"market_prob_pct": 28.89,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Al Wakrah.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Al Wakrah (44.8%).",
"Al Wakrah \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"closing_odds": 2.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
"entry_odds": 2.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Al Wakrah",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Al Wakrah",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "al-sailiya",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Al-Sailiya",
"away_team_id": 2898,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2898.webp",
"away_team_name": "Al-Sailiya",
"away_team_public_id": "1Ia8fDiBlASqrV",
"away_team_slug": "al-sailiya",
"country_code": "QA",
"country_display_name": "Qatar",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/qa.svg",
"country_id": 130,
"country_name": "Qatar",
"fixture_id": 1639130,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Qatar",
"home_team_display_name": "Al Wakrah",
"home_team_id": 2900,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2900.webp",
"home_team_name": "Al Wakrah",
"home_team_public_id": "0mEujOZjwbkPK4",
"home_team_slug": "al-wakrah",
"ht.home_team_slug": "al-wakrah",
"league_country": "Qatar",
"league_country_display": "Qatar",
"league_display_name": "QSL Cup",
"league_id": 677,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/677.webp",
"league_name": "QSL Cup",
"league_public_id": "1NfKMDSOemN9Ea",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 15:00:00",
"public_id": "0TJ5nWKZUL0hnI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Al Wakrah",
"venue_name": "Al Janoub Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2781,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0625,
"implied_prob": 0.2889,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2889,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.4477
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3024
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2851,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0724,
"implied_prob": 0.2634,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2889,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.4477
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2728
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3948,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.1691,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2889,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.4477
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4155
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": 0.0464,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0024,
"ev": 0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.134,
"ev": -0.268,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2162,
"alpha_yes": 0.2378,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0273,
"edge_yes": -0.0273,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0743,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0962,
"implied_no": 0.4277,
"implied_yes": 0.5723,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4346
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2378,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0062,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5649
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4346,
"p_final_yes": 0.5649,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2272,
"alpha_under": 0.2066,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.98,
"edge_over": -0.0582,
"edge_under": 0.0582,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1036,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"implied_over": 0.5402,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5366,
"implied_under": 0.4598,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4634,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2272,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5366,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4634,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4747
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5242,
"p_final_under": 0.4747,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wakrah)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Wakrah at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Wakrah as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Wakrah",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wakrah).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1691,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.1691,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Al Wakrah"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0056,
"market_prob": 0.429,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4346
},
"p_final": 0.4346,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0743,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2378,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0062,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5649
}
},
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4277,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.4634,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2272,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5366,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5242
},
"p_final": 0.4747,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4634,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4747
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0582,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4598,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639130,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Al-Sailiya",
"home": "Al Wakrah"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4598,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1691,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639130,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T15:01:07.367081+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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