AI correctly predicted the Avondale win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Avondale Avondale ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hume City | 30.1% | 37.8% | -7.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.9% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Avondale | 40.4% | 37.2% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Hume City's win probability at 37.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Avondale win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Hume City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Avondale higher (48.1% vs model 40.4%, 7.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Avondale win 2–3).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hume City 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Avondale 40.5%
- xG · Hume City 1.19 — Avondale 1.41
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hume City 2.42 · Draw 3.67 · Avondale 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Hume City 37.8% · Draw 24.9% · Avondale 37.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hume City 2.42 · Draw 3.67 · Avondale 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Hume City 37.8% · Draw 24.9% · Avondale 37.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Avondale win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
21/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.42
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Avondale win · Hume City 2–3 Avondale
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Avondale",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Avondale"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
"market_comparison": [
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}
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
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"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 69.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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{
"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 24.95,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 08:14:55",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 07:44:47",
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"top5": [
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
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{
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},
"home_xg": 1.19,
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{
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},
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "-26.2%"
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10415.5,
"tier": "best",
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{
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0166,
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"no": {
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0364,
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "+20.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2045,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10184.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0501,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.0,
"text": "-5.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3722,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0386,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Avondale",
"sort_key": 1790.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"alert_team": "Avondale",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.69,
"hero_label": "Hume City",
"market_prob_pct": 37.2,
"market_team": "Hume City",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Avondale",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avondale at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avondale as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avondale",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0501,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3722,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.69,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.69,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"steam_team": "Avondale",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avondale at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avondale as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avondale",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0501,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3722,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hume City 1.19 xG vs Avondale 1.41 \u2192 Avondale 40.4%",
"Market: Hume City ~37.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Avondale odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Avondale, but the market has moved away from Avondale.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.69,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Hume City",
"market_prob": 37.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.49,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Avondale",
"market_prob": 37.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.43,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.43,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.08,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.08,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hume City",
"market_prob_pct": 37.83,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Avondale"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Hume City\u0027s win probability at 37.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Avondale",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.2,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hume City 1.19 xG vs Avondale 1.41 \u2192 Avondale 40.4%",
"Market: Hume City ~37.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Avondale odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Avondale, but the market has moved away from Avondale.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.69,
"hero_label": "Hume City",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Avondale odds lengthened \u2191 +6.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Avondale has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Hume City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Avondale \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Hume City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Avondale has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Avondale \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Hume City above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Avondale has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Hume City",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Hume City higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.69,
"edge_pp": -7.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hume City",
"market_prob_pct": 37.83,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.49,
"edge_pp": 4.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.2,
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Avondale",
"market_prob_pct": 37.22,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Avondale \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hume City (37.2%).",
"Avondale odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.5%, 8/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Avondale, Market \u2192 Hume City, while Avondale odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.32,
"closing_odds": 2.42,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.32,
"entry_odds": 2.42,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 37m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Avondale (6.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.46",
"2.38",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.55 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 49h 37m",
"pick_team": "Avondale",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.46,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.46"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/14 sportsbooks on Avondale",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Avondale",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Market moved away from Avondale while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Avondale",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Avondale",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Avondale",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "avondale",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Avondale",
"away_team_id": 3798,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3798.webp",
"away_team_name": "Avondale",
"away_team_public_id": "0PKhm4Phqjx16f",
"away_team_slug": "avondale",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_display_name": "Australia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_id": 9,
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1638607,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_display_name": "Hume City",
"home_team_id": 3804,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3804.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hume City",
"home_team_public_id": "3KD5jkywf8CHxg",
"home_team_slug": "hume-city",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hume-city",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_country_display": "Australia",
"league_display_name": "Victoria NPL",
"league_id": 195,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/195.webp",
"league_name": "Victoria NPL",
"league_public_id": "1woy29t7echvq1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 08:15:00",
"public_id": "2c1wa298twHqlP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Melbourne",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.428,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0501,
"implied_prob": 0.3722,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3722,
"draw": 0.2495,
"home": 0.3783
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.3861
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2799,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0386,
"implied_prob": 0.2495,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3722,
"draw": 0.2495,
"home": 0.3783
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.262
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3979,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0307,
"ev": -0.1587,
"implied_prob": 0.3783,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3722,
"draw": 0.2495,
"home": 0.3783
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3476
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": -0.0017,
"ev": -0.0042,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.4048
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": 0.0792,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.1121,
"ev": -0.2712,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3012
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1595,
"alpha_yes": 0.2193,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1008,
"edge_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2045,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0364,
"ev_yes": -0.187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.112,
"implied_no": 0.3572,
"implied_yes": 0.6428,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1595,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0364,
"implied_prob": 0.354,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3706
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.646,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6232
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.3706,
"p_final_yes": 0.6232,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2077,
"alpha_under": 0.151,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.405,
"edge_over": -0.1343,
"edge_under": 0.1343,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1179,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0276,
"implied_over": 0.6163,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6159,
"implied_under": 0.3837,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3841,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1179,
"implied_prob": 0.6159,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5881
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.405,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0276,
"implied_prob": 0.3841,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4043
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5881,
"p_final_under": 0.4043,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avondale at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avondale as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avondale",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0501,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3722,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0501,
"implied_prob": 0.3722,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Avondale"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1595,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0166,
"market_prob": 0.354,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1595,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0364,
"implied_prob": 0.354,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3706
},
"p_final": 0.3706,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0364,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.646,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6232
}
},
"edge": 0.1008,
"ev": 0.2045,
"implied_prob": 0.3572,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.405,
"edge": 0.0202,
"market_prob": 0.3841,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1179,
"implied_prob": 0.6159,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5881
},
"p_final": 0.4043,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0276,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.405,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0276,
"implied_prob": 0.3841,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4043
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1343,
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638607,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2045,
"implied_prob": 0.3572,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2045,
"implied_prob": 0.3572,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Avondale",
"home": "Hume City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.106967,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0501,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3722,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638607,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T08:14:56.839935+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Victoria NPL — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | Preston Lions | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 51 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Avondale | 26 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 47 |
| 5 | South Melbourne | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 38 |
| 8 | Dandenong City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
| 10 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 15 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avondale | 26 | 65 | 34 | +31 | 47 |
| 2 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 56 | 24 | +32 | 54 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 49 |
| 4 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 40 |
| 5 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
| 6 | Preston Lions | 26 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 51 |
| 7 | South Melbourne | 26 | 39 | 36 | +3 | 41 |
| 8 | St Albans Saints | 26 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | Dandenong City | 26 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 37 |
| 10 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 38 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 27 | 51 | -24 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 23 | 65 | -42 | 15 |
