AI correctly predicted the Oakleigh Cannons win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Oakleigh Cannons Oakleigh Cannons ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakleigh Cannons | 42.4% | 44.7% | -2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 26.9% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
| South Melbourne | 28.4% | 28.4% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Oakleigh Cannons win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Oakleigh Cannons win 2–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Oakleigh Cannons 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · South Melbourne 28.4%
- xG · Oakleigh Cannons 1.45 — South Melbourne 1.15
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Oakleigh Cannons 2.05 · Draw 3.41 · South Melbourne 3.22
- Implied 1X2 · Oakleigh Cannons 44.7% · Draw 26.9% · South Melbourne 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Oakleigh Cannons 2.05 · Draw 3.41 · South Melbourne 3.22
- Implied 1X2 · Oakleigh Cannons 44.7% · Draw 26.9% · South Melbourne 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Oakleigh Cannons win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
88/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Oakleigh Cannons win · Oakleigh Cannons 2–1 South Melbourne
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3b7815707d7b0d1c03945989e8756a96c1074b2da2f4c9ae6ce934ecdeaba267",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.15,
"away_win_prob": 0.2837,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.461,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2926,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.52,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.42,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.36,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": 0.4237,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Oakleigh Cannons or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Oakleigh Cannons"
},
"away_xg": 1.15,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0232,
"edge_gap": 0.1313,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4469,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 28.4,
"draw": 29.2,
"home": 42.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.05
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.05,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Oakleigh Cannons Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.24,
"market_odds": 2.05,
"model_odds": 2.36,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -6.4,
"value_pct": -13.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 68.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 11,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 76.5,
"no_prob": 46.1,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.15,
"home_expected": 1.45,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Oakleigh Cannons or Draw",
"prob": 71.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Oakleigh Cannons or South Melbourne",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or South Melbourne",
"prob": 57.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Oakleigh Cannons or Draw",
"pick_prob": 71.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 28.4,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 42.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Oakleigh Cannons"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -13.1,
"implied_prob": 48.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Oakleigh Cannons Win",
"model_prob": 42.4,
"odds": 2.05
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "South Melbourne",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.45,
"draw": 26.86,
"home": 44.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 09:29:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 08:59:35",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.69,
"gap_pp": -2.32,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 42.36
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.86,
"gap_pp": 2.37,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.23
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.45,
"gap_pp": -0.05,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 28.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.54,
"gap_pp": -8.34,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.46,
"gap_pp": 8.34,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.41,
"early": 3.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.86,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.22,
"early": 3.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.45,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.54,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.16,
"early": 2.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.46,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.9,
"ev": -0.132,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0161,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4412,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2299,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1071,
"implied_prob": 0.5588,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5412
},
"p_final": 0.4572,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0826,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0444,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0444,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4572
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.4,
"text": "+11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1137,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10252.33,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1742,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0091,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4087,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.461,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1742,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4087,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.4178
},
"p_final": 0.4178,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0373,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2395,
"best_odd": 1.555,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.5913,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0695,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.0,
"text": "+7.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1538,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.4,
"text": "-15.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0695,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 46.1,
"sort_key": 10062.55,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.9
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1046,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.5,
"text": "-10.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0606,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"sort_key": 1784.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"alert_team": "South Melbourne",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.4,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 44.7,
"market_team": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_team": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oakleigh Cannons at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oakleigh Cannons as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1046,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.38461538461538464,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.4,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.45,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.45 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"steam_team": "South Melbourne",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oakleigh Cannons at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oakleigh Cannons as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1046,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Oakleigh Cannons 1.45 xG vs South Melbourne 1.15 \u2192 Oakleigh Cannons 42.4%",
"Market: Oakleigh Cannons ~44.7% implied",
"Market Steam: South Melbourne \u2193 -14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Oakleigh Cannons, but sharp money moved toward South Melbourne.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.32,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"market_prob": 44.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.08,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "South Melbourne",
"market_prob": 28.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.34,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.34,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.86,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "South Melbourne"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.3,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Oakleigh Cannons 1.45 xG vs South Melbourne 1.15 \u2192 Oakleigh Cannons 42.4%",
"Market: Oakleigh Cannons ~44.7% implied",
"Market Steam: South Melbourne \u2193 -14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Oakleigh Cannons, but sharp money moved toward South Melbourne.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.4,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "South Melbourne odds shortened \u2193 -14.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on South Melbourne, with odds shortening by 14.7%. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on South Melbourne \u2014 odds shortened by 14.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on South Melbourne, with odds shortening by 14.7%. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on South Melbourne \u2014 odds shortened by 14.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, South Melbourne has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 14.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.32,
"edge_pp": -2.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"market_prob_pct": 44.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.4,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.86,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.08,
"edge_pp": -0.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "South Melbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 28.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on South Melbourne \u2014 odds shortened by 14.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Oakleigh Cannons (44.7%).",
"However, South Melbourne has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.7%, 5/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Oakleigh Cannons, Market \u2192 Oakleigh Cannons, Recent sharp money \u2192 South Melbourne.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.33,
"closing_odds": 3.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.33,
"entry_odds": 3.41,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on South Melbourne (14.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.15",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
"pick_team": "South Melbourne",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.22,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,6.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 5/13 sportsbooks on South Melbourne",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "South Melbourne",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward South Melbourne while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "South Melbourne",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "South Melbourne",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "South Melbourne",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "south-melbourne",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "South Melbourne",
"away_team_id": 3811,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3811.webp",
"away_team_name": "South Melbourne",
"away_team_public_id": "2zkf42s3LtpTeT",
"away_team_slug": "south-melbourne",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_display_name": "Australia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_id": 9,
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1638606,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_display_name": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"home_team_id": 3808,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3808.webp",
"home_team_name": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"home_team_public_id": "2NAdiWUvQ3gwui",
"home_team_slug": "oakleigh-cannons",
"ht.home_team_slug": "oakleigh-cannons",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_country_display": "Australia",
"league_display_name": "Victoria NPL",
"league_id": 195,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/195.webp",
"league_name": "Victoria NPL",
"league_public_id": "1woy29t7echvq1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 09:30:00",
"public_id": "2mINhlUkUfwl5v",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Melbourne",
"venue_name": "Jack Edwards Reserve"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2998,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0844,
"implied_prob": 0.2845,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2845,
"draw": 0.2686,
"home": 0.4469
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.2844
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2893,
"best_odd": 3.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.2686,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2845,
"draw": 0.2686,
"home": 0.4469
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.2755
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4343,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2845,
"draw": 0.2686,
"home": 0.4469
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.4368
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.22,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.0854,
"implied_prob": 0.3106,
"model_prob": 0.284
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.41,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0031,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.0642,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.4236
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1742,
"alpha_yes": 0.2395,
"best_no_odd": 2.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0534,
"edge_yes": -0.0534,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0695,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.06,
"ev_yes": -0.1538,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1,
"implied_no": 0.4076,
"implied_yes": 0.5924,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1742,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4087,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.4178
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2395,
"best_odd": 1.555,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.5913,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.4178,
"p_final_yes": 0.5788,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2299,
"alpha_under": 0.209,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.09,
"edge_over": -0.0778,
"edge_under": 0.0778,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1071,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0444,
"implied_over": 0.5598,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5588,
"implied_under": 0.4402,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4412,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2299,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1071,
"implied_prob": 0.5588,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5412
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0444,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4572
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5412,
"p_final_under": 0.4572,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oakleigh Cannons at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oakleigh Cannons as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward South Melbourne, but the model still strongly favours Oakleigh Cannons.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1046,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Oakleigh Cannons"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1742,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0091,
"market_prob": 0.4087,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.461,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1742,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4087,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.4178
},
"p_final": 0.4178,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2395,
"best_odd": 1.555,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.5913,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"edge": 0.0534,
"ev": 0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0161,
"market_prob": 0.4412,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2299,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1071,
"implied_prob": 0.5588,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5412
},
"p_final": 0.4572,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0444,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0444,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4572
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0778,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4402,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638606,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.4236
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "South Melbourne",
"home": "Oakleigh Cannons"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4402,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1046,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638606,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T09:29:19.068575+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Oakleigh Cannons & South Melbourne!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Victoria NPL — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | Preston Lions | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 51 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Avondale | 26 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 47 |
| 5 | South Melbourne | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 38 |
| 8 | Dandenong City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
| 10 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 15 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avondale | 26 | 65 | 34 | +31 | 47 |
| 2 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 56 | 24 | +32 | 54 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 49 |
| 4 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 40 |
| 5 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
| 6 | Preston Lions | 26 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 51 |
| 7 | South Melbourne | 26 | 39 | 36 | +3 | 41 |
| 8 | St Albans Saints | 26 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | Dandenong City | 26 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 37 |
| 10 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 38 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 27 | 51 | -24 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 23 | 65 | -42 | 15 |
