The model missed the final outcome (Malmö FF Nữ win 0–2).
The model had projected St. Pölten Nữ at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 St. Pölten Nữ Malmö FF Nữ ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pölten Nữ | 36.1% | 28.2% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.7% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Malmö FF Nữ | 34.2% | 46.1% | -11.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Malmö FF Nữ's win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Malmö FF Nữ win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Malmö FF Nữ than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned St. Pölten Nữ; match finished Malmö FF Nữ
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on St. Pölten Nữ by 11.8 percentage points (47.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · St. Pölten Nữ 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Malmö FF Nữ 34.2%
- xG · St. Pölten Nữ 1.32 — Malmö FF Nữ 1.28
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · St. Pölten Nữ 3.15 · Draw 3.46 · Malmö FF Nữ 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · St. Pölten Nữ 28.2% · Draw 25.7% · Malmö FF Nữ 46.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · St. Pölten Nữ 3.15 · Draw 3.46 · Malmö FF Nữ 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · St. Pölten Nữ 28.2% · Draw 25.7% · Malmö FF Nữ 46.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Malmö FF Nữ win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
14/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Malmö FF Nữ win · St. Pölten Nữ 0–2 Malmö FF Nữ
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0452,
"ev_available": true,
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"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0452,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"sort_key": 1788.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.83,
"hero_label": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 28.2,
"market_team": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.83,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.83,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef 1.32 xG vs Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef 1.28 \u2192 St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef 36.1%",
"Market: Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef ~28.2% implied",
"Market Steam: St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.88,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 28.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.95,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.83,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 46.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.33,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 46.07,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef\u0027s win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.83,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef 1.32 xG vs Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef 1.28 \u2192 St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef 36.1%",
"Market: Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef ~28.2% implied",
"Market Steam: St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.83,
"hero_label": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef than the current fair estimate.",
"However, St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.83,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.88,
"edge_pp": 7.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 28.23,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.95,
"edge_pp": 3.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.83,
"edge_pp": -11.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 46.07,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef (28.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, Market \u2192 Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "malmo-ff-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"away_team_id": 21698,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21698.webp",
"away_team_name": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"away_team_public_id": "5Y4oLswAOIOk0S",
"away_team_slug": "malmo-ff-w",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1638410,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"home_team_id": 10227,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10227.webp",
"home_team_name": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"home_team_public_id": "2j0vBnmUav0XHI",
"home_team_slug": "st-polten-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "st-polten-w",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Europa Cup - N\u1eef",
"league_id": 1191,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1191.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Europa Cup - N\u1eef",
"league_public_id": "31H7W631HCwxDJ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-23 16:45:00",
"public_id": "3TmWQ4zO8wf8h3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sankt Polten",
"venue_name": "Voithplatz"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4935,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0584,
"ev": -0.2235,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4607,
"draw": 0.257,
"home": 0.2823
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4023
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2821,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4607,
"draw": 0.257,
"home": 0.2823
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2682
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2646,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4607,
"draw": 0.257,
"home": 0.2823
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3031
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1757,
"ev": -0.3392,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": 0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.0435,
"ev": 0.1369,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1666,
"alpha_yes": 0.229,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0533,
"edge_yes": -0.0533,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0592,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0958,
"implied_no": 0.4017,
"implied_yes": 0.5983,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.229,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.5948,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5834
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4135,
"p_final_yes": 0.5834,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2134,
"alpha_under": 0.194,
"best_over_odd": 1.64,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.575,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.0978,
"edge_under": 0.0978,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2095,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1272,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0586,
"implied_over": 0.5798,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5737,
"implied_under": 0.4202,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4263,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.5737,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5542
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4263,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4441
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5542,
"p_final_under": 0.4441,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0083,
"market_prob": 0.4052,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1666,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4135
},
"p_final": 0.4135,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.229,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.5948,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5834
}
},
"edge": 0.0533,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4017,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.4263,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.5737,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5542
},
"p_final": 0.4441,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.4263,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4441
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0978,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638410,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Malm\u00f6 FF N\u1eef",
"home": "St. P\u00f6lten N\u1eef"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0452,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1368,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638410,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T16:44:06.759114+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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