The model missed the final outcome (Ñublense win 2–1).
The model had projected Deportes Puerto Montt at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Deportes Puerto Montt Ñublense ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ñublense | 31.9% | 56.2% | -24.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.8% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Deportes Puerto Montt | 38.5% | 19.0% | +19.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Ñublense's win probability at 56.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 24.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Ñublense win 2–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Deportes Puerto Montt; match finished Ñublense
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Deportes Puerto Montt by 24.3 percentage points (62.8% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ñublense 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Deportes Puerto Montt 38.5%
- xG · Ñublense 1.23 — Deportes Puerto Montt 1.37
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ñublense 1.63 · Draw 3.70 · Deportes Puerto Montt 4.82
- Implied 1X2 · Ñublense 56.2% · Draw 24.8% · Deportes Puerto Montt 19.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ñublense 1.63 · Draw 3.70 · Deportes Puerto Montt 4.82
- Implied 1X2 · Ñublense 56.2% · Draw 24.8% · Deportes Puerto Montt 19.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ñublense win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.63
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ñublense win · Ñublense 2–1 Deportes Puerto Montt
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : \u00d1ublense or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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}
},
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u00d1ublense or Deportes Puerto Montt",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Deportes Puerto Montt",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "\u00d1ublense or Deportes Puerto Montt",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "away",
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 20:00:16",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u00d1ublense",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.05,
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"label": "1-1",
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"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0121,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.9,
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"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"p_final": 0.4972
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1564,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.088,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.088,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10229.2,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.82,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0492,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.9,
"text": "+4.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0492,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 4.9,
"text": "+4.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8538,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"sort_key": 10044.28,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0004,
"edge_pp": -0.1,
"market_prob": 0.4839,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0004,
"ev": -0.0718,
"implied_prob": 0.4839,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4834
},
"p_final": 0.4834,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0746,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0718,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5161,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5166
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0469,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.7,
"text": "-4.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 1791.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.4%",
"alert_team": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 24.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.28,
"hero_label": "\u00d1ublense",
"market_prob_pct": 19.0,
"market_team": "\u00d1ublense",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 86,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Deportes Puerto Montt), but pricing still diverges by 24.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Deportes Puerto Montt), but pricing still diverges by 24.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8539,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportes Puerto Montt at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportes Puerto Montt as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportes Puerto Montt \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.41 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +85% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638390 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.41 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Deportes Puerto Montt), but pricing still diverges by 24.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +85% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0492,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.82,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20746887966804978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8538,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (24 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 24.28,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 24.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.4%",
"steam_team": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Deportes Puerto Montt), but pricing still diverges by 24.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Deportes Puerto Montt), but pricing still diverges by 24.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Deportes Puerto Montt), but pricing still diverges by 24.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8539,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportes Puerto Montt at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportes Puerto Montt as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportes Puerto Montt \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.41 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +85% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638390 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.41 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Deportes Puerto Montt), but pricing still diverges by 24.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +85% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0492,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.82,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20746887966804978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8538,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00d1ublense 1.23 xG vs Deportes Puerto Montt 1.37 \u2192 Deportes Puerto Montt 38.5%",
"Market: \u00d1ublense ~19.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportes Puerto Montt \u2193 -17.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Deportes Puerto Montt, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -24.28,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "\u00d1ublense",
"market_prob": 56.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.8,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.48,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"market_prob": 19.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.14,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.06,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.14,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.94,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.21,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.21,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -24.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u00d1ublense",
"market_prob_pct": 56.22,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Deportes Puerto Montt"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u00d1ublense\u0027s win probability at 56.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 24.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 24.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 19.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Deportes Puerto Montt \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+19.5 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 3,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00d1ublense 1.23 xG vs Deportes Puerto Montt 1.37 \u2192 Deportes Puerto Montt 38.5%",
"Market: \u00d1ublense ~19.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportes Puerto Montt \u2193 -17.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Deportes Puerto Montt, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.28,
"hero_label": "\u00d1ublense",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Deportes Puerto Montt odds shortened \u2193 -17.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 24.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "\u00d1ublense",
"largest_gap_pp": -24.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u00d1ublense higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 24.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -24.28,
"edge_pp": -24.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u00d1ublense",
"market_prob_pct": 56.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.8,
"edge_pp": 4.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.77,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 19.48,
"edge_pp": 19.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"market_prob_pct": 19.01,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u00d1ublense (19.0%).",
"However, Deportes Puerto Montt has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.4%, 7/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportes Puerto Montt, Market \u2192 \u00d1ublense, Recent sharp money \u2192 Deportes Puerto Montt.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 61.35,
"closing_odds": 1.63,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 61.35,
"entry_odds": 1.63,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books synchronized on Deportes Puerto Montt (17.4% steam, score 86) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.75",
"5.25",
"4.75"
],
"display": "6.50 \u2192 4.75 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 17m",
"pick_team": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.75,
4.82,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.75,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Deportes Puerto Montt \u2193 -17.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Deportes Puerto Montt \u2193 -17.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.4%",
"open_odds": 5.75,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 86,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.4%",
"open_odds": 5.75,
"pick_team": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"steam_score": 86,
"steam_team_name": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 24.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "d-puerto-montt",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"away_team_id": 2342,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2342.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"away_team_public_id": "62ENZsE5V2lOxl",
"away_team_slug": "d-puerto-montt",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1638390,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "\u00d1ublense",
"home_team_id": 2337,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2337.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u00d1ublense",
"home_team_public_id": "3Pas5koOxwDsIt",
"home_team_slug": "nublense",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nublense",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Copa Chile",
"league_id": 267,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/267.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Chile",
"league_public_id": "4gcQc1atBcngKw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 20:30:00",
"public_id": "5B5bsd4hdrQtZS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1416,
"best_odd": 4.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": 0.0492,
"implied_prob": 0.1901,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1901,
"draw": 0.2477,
"home": 0.5622
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.2177
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2783,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.034,
"implied_prob": 0.2477,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1901,
"draw": 0.2477,
"home": 0.5622
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2611
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3816,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0926,
"ev": -0.2346,
"implied_prob": 0.5622,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1901,
"draw": 0.2477,
"home": 0.5622
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.4696
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.82,
"edge": 0.1772,
"ev": 0.8539,
"implied_prob": 0.2075,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0256,
"ev": 0.0947,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.294,
"ev": -0.4792,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2256,
"alpha_yes": 0.2051,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0621,
"edge_yes": 0.0621,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1564,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1021,
"ev_yes": 0.088,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0554,
"implied_no": 0.5181,
"implied_yes": 0.4819,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1021,
"implied_prob": 0.5149,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5016
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2051,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.4851,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4972
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5016,
"p_final_yes": 0.4972,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2356,
"alpha_under": 0.2356,
"best_over_odd": 2.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.84,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.92,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.8,
"edge_over": 0.0014,
"edge_under": -0.0014,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0718,
"ev_under": -0.0469,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0702,
"implied_over": 0.4806,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4839,
"implied_under": 0.5194,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5161,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0004,
"ev": -0.0718,
"implied_prob": 0.4839,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4834
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5161,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5166
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4834,
"p_final_under": 0.5166,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8539,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.088,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.9,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Deportes Puerto Montt), but pricing still diverges by 24.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8539,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportes Puerto Montt at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportes Puerto Montt as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportes Puerto Montt \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.41 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +85% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638390 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.41 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Deportes Puerto Montt), but pricing still diverges by 24.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +85% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0492,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.82,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20746887966804978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8538,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.82,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": 0.0492,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1901,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportes Puerto Montt"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2051,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0121,
"market_prob": 0.4851,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2256,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1021,
"implied_prob": 0.5149,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5016
},
"p_final": 0.4972,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0554,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2051,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.4851,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4972
}
},
"edge": 0.0621,
"ev": 0.088,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4819,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0004,
"market_prob": 0.4839,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0004,
"ev": -0.0718,
"implied_prob": 0.4839,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4834
},
"p_final": 0.4834,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0718,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5161,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5166
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0014,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4806,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1638390,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.088,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportes Puerto Montt",
"home": "\u00d1ublense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.047872,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4819,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0492,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.82,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1901,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20746887966804978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8538,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638390,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T20:29:14.914427+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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