AI correctly predicted the Inter De Limeira win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Inter De Limeira Inter De Limeira ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter De Limeira | 36.1% | 43.6% | -7.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.2% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Paysandu | 34.2% | 25.2% | +9.1 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Paysandu's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.2%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Inter De Limeira win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Paysandu.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Inter De Limeira more conservatively (27.0% vs model 36.1%, 9.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Inter De Limeira win 2–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Inter De Limeira 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Paysandu 34.2%
- xG · Inter De Limeira 1.32 — Paysandu 1.28
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Inter De Limeira 2.10 · Draw 2.94 · Paysandu 3.64
- Implied 1X2 · Inter De Limeira 43.6% · Draw 31.2% · Paysandu 25.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Inter De Limeira 2.10 · Draw 2.94 · Paysandu 3.64
- Implied 1X2 · Inter De Limeira 43.6% · Draw 31.2% · Paysandu 25.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Inter De Limeira win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
54/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.64
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Inter De Limeira win · Inter De Limeira 2–0 Paysandu
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Inter De Limeira or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
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"away_xg": 1.28,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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{
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},
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"ev_under_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10058.68,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1467,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.7,
"text": "-14.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.002,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.2,
"text": "+0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Inter De Limeira",
"sort_key": 5201.6,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"alert_team": "Paysandu",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.06,
"hero_label": "Paysandu",
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"market_team": "Inter De Limeira",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Inter De Limeira",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2463,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Inter De Limeira at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Inter De Limeira as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter De Limeira",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Inter De Limeira \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.29 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1637846 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.29 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1467,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.06,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"steam_team": "Paysandu",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2463,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Inter De Limeira at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Inter De Limeira as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter De Limeira",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Inter De Limeira \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.29 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1637846 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.29 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1467,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter De Limeira 1.32 xG vs Paysandu 1.28 \u2192 Inter De Limeira 36.1%",
"Market: Inter De Limeira ~43.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Paysandu \u2193 -2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Inter De Limeira, but sharp money moved toward Paysandu.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.54,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Inter De Limeira",
"market_prob": 43.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.53,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.06,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Paysandu",
"market_prob": 25.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.93,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Paysandu",
"market_prob_pct": 25.18,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Paysandu"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Paysandu\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.2%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Inter De Limeira",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter De Limeira 1.32 xG vs Paysandu 1.28 \u2192 Inter De Limeira 36.1%",
"Market: Inter De Limeira ~43.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Paysandu \u2193 -2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Inter De Limeira, but sharp money moved toward Paysandu.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.06,
"hero_label": "Paysandu",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Paysandu odds shortened \u2193 -2.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Paysandu.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Paysandu.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Paysandu.",
"Recent line movement on Paysandu (\u2193 -2.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Paysandu",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.1,
"lead": "The model rates Paysandu considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.54,
"edge_pp": -7.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Inter De Limeira",
"market_prob_pct": 43.65,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.53,
"edge_pp": -1.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.18,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.06,
"edge_pp": 9.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Paysandu",
"market_prob_pct": 25.18,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Inter De Limeira (43.6%).",
"Paysandu has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.9%, 1/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Inter De Limeira, Market \u2192 Inter De Limeira, Recent sharp money \u2192 Paysandu.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.47,
"closing_odds": 3.64,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.47,
"entry_odds": 3.64,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Paysandu (swing 3.58 \u2192 3.16 \u2192 3.30) \u2014 net 2.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.64",
"3.47",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.58 \u2192 3.16 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 29m",
"pick_team": "Paysandu",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.58"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.16"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.64,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,12.7 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.64"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Paysandu",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward Paysandu while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Paysandu",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Paysandu",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Paysandu",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "paysandu",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Paysandu",
"away_team_id": 149,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/149.webp",
"away_team_name": "Paysandu",
"away_team_public_id": "0aO4dJXSuypH7i",
"away_team_slug": "paysandu",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1637846,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Inter De Limeira",
"home_team_id": 1201,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1201.webp",
"home_team_name": "Inter De Limeira",
"home_team_public_id": "1igv8qylmiOcTQ",
"home_team_slug": "inter-de-limeira",
"ht.home_team_slug": "inter-de-limeira",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie C Brazil",
"league_id": 75,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/75.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C Brazil",
"league_public_id": "4VLz3GkmCZHeBW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 22:30:00",
"public_id": "5bKjDgkZHANoGo",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Limeira",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2592,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": 0.002,
"implied_prob": 0.2518,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2518,
"draw": 0.3118,
"home": 0.4365
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2753
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.3118,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2518,
"draw": 0.3118,
"home": 0.4365
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3051
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.399,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1467,
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2518,
"draw": 0.3118,
"home": 0.4365
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4063
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0677,
"ev": 0.2463,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0435,
"ev": -0.1278,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.1153,
"ev": -0.242,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.225,
"alpha_yes": 0.2046,
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 1.93,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0593,
"edge_yes": 0.0593,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1673,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1015,
"ev_yes": 0.0518,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0535,
"implied_no": 0.5143,
"implied_yes": 0.4857,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.225,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.5156,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5019
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4968
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5019,
"p_final_yes": 0.4968,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2056,
"alpha_under": 0.2262,
"best_over_odd": 2.21,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.175,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.605,
"edge_over": 0.056,
"edge_under": -0.056,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0652,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0508,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0973,
"implied_over": 0.426,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4246,
"implied_under": 0.574,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5754,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4364
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.0973,
"implied_prob": 0.5754,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5624
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4364,
"p_final_under": 0.5624,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2463,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0652,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2463,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Inter De Limeira at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Inter De Limeira as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter De Limeira",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Inter De Limeira \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.29 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1637846 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.29 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Paysandu, but the model still strongly favours Inter De Limeira.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1467,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1467,
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Inter De Limeira"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0124,
"market_prob": 0.4844,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.225,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.5156,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5019
},
"p_final": 0.4968,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0535,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4968
}
},
"edge": 0.0593,
"ev": 0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0118,
"market_prob": 0.4246,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4364
},
"p_final": 0.4364,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0508,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.0973,
"implied_prob": 0.5754,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5624
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.056,
"ev": 0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.426,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1637846,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0652,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Paysandu",
"home": "Inter De Limeira"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028231,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1467,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2421,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1637846,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T22:29:12.868862+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Inter De Limeira & Paysandu!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie C Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Botafogo PB | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 2 | Brusque | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 32 |
| 3 | Ferroviária | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Maringá | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Floresta | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 6 | Inter De Limeira | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Paysandu | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 29 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29 |
| 9 | Ypiranga-RS | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29 |
| 10 | Guarani Campinas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 11 | Figueirense | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 12 | Maranhão | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 13 | Amazonas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 14 | Caxias | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 25 |
| 15 | Ituano | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 16 | Volta Redonda | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| 17 | Barra | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 |
| 18 | Anápolis | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 19 |
| 19 | AO Itabaiana | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 |
| 20 | Confiança | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guarani Campinas | 19 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 28 |
| 2 | Maringá | 19 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 30 |
| 3 | Botafogo PB | 19 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 4 | Brusque | 19 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 | Ypiranga-RS | 19 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 29 |
| 6 | Paysandu | 19 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 29 |
| 7 | Ferroviária | 19 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 30 |
| 8 | Floresta | 19 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 30 |
| 9 | Inter De Limeira | 19 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 30 |
| 10 | Barra | 19 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 | Amazonas | 19 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 26 |
| 12 | Santa Cruz | 19 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 29 |
| 13 | Maranhão | 19 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 27 |
| 14 | Figueirense | 19 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 28 |
| 15 | Ituano | 19 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 22 |
| 16 | Caxias | 19 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 25 |
| 17 | Anápolis | 19 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 19 |
| 18 | AO Itabaiana | 19 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 17 |
| 19 | Volta Redonda | 19 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 21 |
| 20 | Confiança | 19 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 13 |
