AI correctly predicted the LDU Portoviejo win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 LDU Portoviejo LDU Portoviejo ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDU Portoviejo | 39.5% | 36.4% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 34.1% | -4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Santo Domingo | 31.0% | 29.5% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (LDU Portoviejo win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (LDU Portoviejo win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · LDU Portoviejo 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Santo Domingo 31.0%
- xG · LDU Portoviejo 1.39 — Santo Domingo 1.21
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · LDU Portoviejo 2.52 · Draw 2.69 · Santo Domingo 3.11
- Implied 1X2 · LDU Portoviejo 36.4% · Draw 34.1% · Santo Domingo 29.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · LDU Portoviejo 2.55 · Draw 2.72 · Santo Domingo 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · LDU Portoviejo 36.4% · Draw 34.1% · Santo Domingo 29.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result LDU Portoviejo win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
76/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.72
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
LDU Portoviejo win · LDU Portoviejo 1–0 Santo Domingo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
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{
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},
"ev_available": true,
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},
"ev_yes": 0.2489,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "+24.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10224.01,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0379,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0379,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "LDU Portoviejo",
"sort_key": 1790.525,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +30.8%",
"alert_team": "LDU Portoviejo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.62,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"market_team": "LDU Portoviejo",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "LDU Portoviejo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4701,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4701,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates LDU Portoviejo at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies LDU Portoviejo as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "LDU Portoviejo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +47.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +47.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +47.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+47.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0379,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.62,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.62,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +30.8%",
"steam_team": "LDU Portoviejo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4701,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4701,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates LDU Portoviejo at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies LDU Portoviejo as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "LDU Portoviejo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +47.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +47.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +47.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+47.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0379,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: LDU Portoviejo 1.39 xG vs Santo Domingo 1.21 \u2192 LDU Portoviejo 39.5%",
"Market: LDU Portoviejo ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: LDU Portoviejo odds \u2191 +30.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours LDU Portoviejo, but the market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.06,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "LDU Portoviejo",
"market_prob": 36.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.62,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.56,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Santo Domingo",
"market_prob": 29.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.06,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.06,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.18,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.18,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.13,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "LDU Portoviejo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.62,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "LDU Portoviejo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: LDU Portoviejo 1.39 xG vs Santo Domingo 1.21 \u2192 LDU Portoviejo 39.5%",
"Market: LDU Portoviejo ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: LDU Portoviejo odds \u2191 +30.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours LDU Portoviejo, but the market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.62,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "LDU Portoviejo odds lengthened \u2191 +30.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, LDU Portoviejo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 30.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from LDU Portoviejo \u2014 odds lengthened by 30.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, LDU Portoviejo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 30.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from LDU Portoviejo \u2014 odds lengthened by 30.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, LDU Portoviejo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 30.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on LDU Portoviejo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.62,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.06,
"edge_pp": 3.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "LDU Portoviejo",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.62,
"edge_pp": -4.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.13,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.56,
"edge_pp": 1.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santo Domingo",
"market_prob_pct": 29.47,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from LDU Portoviejo \u2014 odds lengthened by 30.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers LDU Portoviejo (36.4%).",
"However, LDU Portoviejo has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +30.8%, 5/5) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 LDU Portoviejo, Market \u2192 LDU Portoviejo, while LDU Portoviejo odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.76,
"closing_odds": 2.72,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.76,
"entry_odds": 2.72,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 30.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/5 books lengthened LDU Portoviejo together (30.8% drift, score 90) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.55",
"2.25",
"1.95"
],
"display": "2.55 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.55",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 59m",
"pick_team": "LDU Portoviejo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.95,
2.55,
2.52,
2.55
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,0.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.95,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: LDU Portoviejo odds \u2191 +30.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "LDU Portoviejo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: LDU Portoviejo odds \u2191 +30.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.8%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"summary": "Market moved away from LDU Portoviejo while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "LDU Portoviejo",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.8%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "LDU Portoviejo",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_team_name": "LDU Portoviejo",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "santo-domingo-19414",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Santo Domingo",
"away_team_id": 19414,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19414.webp",
"away_team_name": "Santo Domingo",
"away_team_public_id": "5LwocRIY8luqOr",
"away_team_slug": "santo-domingo-19414",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1636694,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "LDU Portoviejo",
"home_team_id": 1988,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1988.webp",
"home_team_name": "LDU Portoviejo",
"home_team_public_id": "0Spi65GtNQ9qgr",
"home_team_slug": "ldu-portoviejo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ldu-portoviejo",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador",
"league_id": 243,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/243.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador",
"league_public_id": "5vQVlffQy0raFb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 21:30:00",
"public_id": "2lW10cmKKTEBq1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Portoviejo",
"venue_name": "Estadio Reales Tamarindos"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.293,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0573,
"implied_prob": 0.2947,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2947,
"draw": 0.3413,
"home": 0.364
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2993
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4186,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2947,
"draw": 0.3413,
"home": 0.364
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.3218
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4291,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2947,
"draw": 0.3413,
"home": 0.364
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3773
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0225,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0729,
"ev": -0.1983,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": 0.0071,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1946,
"alpha_yes": 0.1415,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1418,
"edge_yes": 0.1418,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2825,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1252,
"ev_yes": 0.2489,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0366,
"implied_no": 0.5988,
"implied_yes": 0.4012,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1252,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5717
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0366,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4207
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5717,
"p_final_yes": 0.4207,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.134,
"alpha_under": 0.1842,
"best_over_odd": 3.05,
"best_under_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.94,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.33,
"edge_over": 0.1706,
"edge_under": -0.1706,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4701,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0171,
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.126,
"implied_over": 0.3114,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3115,
"implied_under": 0.6886,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6885,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.134,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0171,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3343
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1842,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.6885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6571
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3343,
"p_final_under": 0.6571,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4701,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4701,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4701,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4701,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4701,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates LDU Portoviejo at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies LDU Portoviejo as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "LDU Portoviejo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +47.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +47.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +47.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+47.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from LDU Portoviejo, but the model still strongly favours LDU Portoviejo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0379,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0379,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "LDU Portoviejo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0202,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1946,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1252,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5717
},
"p_final": 0.4207,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0366,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1415,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0366,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4207
}
},
"edge": 0.1418,
"ev": 0.2489,
"implied_prob": 0.4012,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.134,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0228,
"market_prob": 0.3115,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.134,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0171,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3343
},
"p_final": 0.3343,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0171,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1842,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.6885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6571
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1706,
"ev": 0.4701,
"implied_prob": 0.3114,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1636694,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4701,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2489,
"implied_prob": 0.4012,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2489,
"implied_prob": 0.4012,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Santo Domingo",
"home": "LDU Portoviejo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.158612,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4701,
"implied_prob": 0.3114,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0379,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636694,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T21:29:06.939301+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho LDU Portoviejo & Santo Domingo!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 39 |
| 2 | Atlético FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 12 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 22 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atlético FC | 22 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 | Cuniburo | 22 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 31 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 22 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 31 |
| 5 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 37 |
| 6 | Cumbayá | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 34 |
| 8 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 29 |
| 9 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 28 |
| 10 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | El Nacional | 22 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 12 |
| 12 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 15 |
