The model missed the final outcome (CODM Meknès win 2–6).
The model had projected Difaâ El Jadida at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (8 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Difaâ El Jadida CODM Meknès ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-6 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Difaâ El Jadida | 36.1% | 37.8% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 34.6% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
| CODM Meknès | 34.2% | 27.6% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates CODM Meknès's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.6%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là CODM Meknès win 2–6.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CODM Meknès.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Difaâ El Jadida; match finished CODM Meknès
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Difaâ El Jadida by 6.7 percentage points (29.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Difaâ El Jadida 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · CODM Meknès 34.2%
- xG · Difaâ El Jadida 1.32 — CODM Meknès 1.28
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Difaâ El Jadida 2.42 · Draw 2.64 · CODM Meknès 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · Difaâ El Jadida 37.8% · Draw 34.6% · CODM Meknès 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Difaâ El Jadida 2.42 · Draw 2.64 · CODM Meknès 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · Difaâ El Jadida 37.8% · Draw 34.6% · CODM Meknès 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CODM Meknès win · 2–6
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
66/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
CODM Meknès win · Difaâ El Jadida 2–6 CODM Meknès
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"double_chance": {
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{
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"prob": 70.3
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 17:29:17",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
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"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 20.5,
"text": "+20.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.205,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10184.5,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1034,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.3,
"text": "-10.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.378,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0253,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1266,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"sort_key": 1793.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"alert_team": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.69,
"hero_label": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"market_prob_pct": 37.8,
"market_team": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Difa\u00e2 El Jadida)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Difa\u00e2 El Jadida)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Difa\u00e2 El Jadida at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Difa\u00e2 El Jadida as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Difa\u00e2 El Jadida).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1034,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.378,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1266,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.69,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.69,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"steam_team": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Difa\u00e2 El Jadida).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Difa\u00e2 El Jadida)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Difa\u00e2 El Jadida)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Difa\u00e2 El Jadida at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Difa\u00e2 El Jadida as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Difa\u00e2 El Jadida).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1034,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.378,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1266,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Difa\u00e2 El Jadida 1.32 xG vs CODM Mekn\u00e8s 1.28 \u2192 Difa\u00e2 El Jadida 36.1%",
"Market: Difa\u00e2 El Jadida ~37.8% implied",
"Market Drift: CODM Mekn\u00e8s odds \u2191 +3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Difa\u00e2 El Jadida with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.69,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"market_prob": 37.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.0,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.69,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"market_prob": 27.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.12,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.12,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.08,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.08,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"market_prob_pct": 27.55,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates CODM Mekn\u00e8s\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.6%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Difa\u00e2 El Jadida 1.32 xG vs CODM Mekn\u00e8s 1.28 \u2192 Difa\u00e2 El Jadida 36.1%",
"Market: Difa\u00e2 El Jadida ~37.8% implied",
"Market Drift: CODM Mekn\u00e8s odds \u2191 +3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Difa\u00e2 El Jadida with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.69,
"hero_label": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s odds lengthened \u2191 +3.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CODM Mekn\u00e8s.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CODM Mekn\u00e8s.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on CODM Mekn\u00e8s.",
"Recent line movement on CODM Mekn\u00e8s (\u2191 +3.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.7,
"lead": "The model rates CODM Mekn\u00e8s considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.69,
"edge_pp": -1.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"market_prob_pct": 37.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.0,
"edge_pp": -5.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.65,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.69,
"edge_pp": 6.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"market_prob_pct": 27.55,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Difa\u00e2 El Jadida (37.8%).",
"CODM Mekn\u00e8s odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.4%, 1/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Difa\u00e2 El Jadida \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.12,
"closing_odds": 3.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.12,
"entry_odds": 3.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 16m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on CODM Mekn\u00e8s (swing 3.49 \u2192 2.72 \u2192 3.00) \u2014 net 3.4% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.32",
"3.11",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.49 \u2192 2.72 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 16m",
"pick_team": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.49"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.72"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.32,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.7",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "codm-meknes",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"away_team_id": 22218,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22218.webp",
"away_team_name": "CODM Mekn\u00e8s",
"away_team_public_id": "15W5oUW4KvYByj",
"away_team_slug": "codm-meknes",
"country_code": "MA",
"country_display_name": "Morocco",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ma.svg",
"country_id": 111,
"country_name": "Morocco",
"fixture_id": 1636663,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Morocco",
"home_team_display_name": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"home_team_id": 964,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/964.webp",
"home_team_name": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"home_team_public_id": "0vmGhhCwWud89X",
"home_team_slug": "difaa-el-jadida",
"ht.home_team_slug": "difaa-el-jadida",
"league_country": "Morocco",
"league_country_display": "Morocco",
"league_display_name": "Botola Pro",
"league_id": 200,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/200.webp",
"league_name": "Botola Pro",
"league_public_id": "2ZJmChFp0Ldm1r",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 18:00:00",
"public_id": "4jTMa8KwkMAihS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "El Jadida",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2699,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0253,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2755,
"draw": 0.3465,
"home": 0.378
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2936
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4164,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3465,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2755,
"draw": 0.3465,
"home": 0.378
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3257
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4385,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.378,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2755,
"draw": 0.3465,
"home": 0.378
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3705
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": 0.0412,
"ev": 0.1367,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": -0.0821,
"ev": -0.2168,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.0523,
"ev": -0.1265,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2136,
"alpha_yes": 0.1942,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0908,
"edge_yes": 0.0908,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1204,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0523,
"implied_no": 0.5458,
"implied_yes": 0.4542,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.5462,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5267
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.4538,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4715
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5267,
"p_final_yes": 0.4715,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1525,
"alpha_under": 0.2097,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.42,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.485,
"edge_over": 0.1012,
"edge_under": -0.1012,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0422,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1114,
"implied_over": 0.3808,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3803,
"implied_under": 0.6192,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6197,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3958
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2097,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.6197,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5984
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3958,
"p_final_under": 0.5984,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Difa\u00e2 El Jadida)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Difa\u00e2 El Jadida at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Difa\u00e2 El Jadida as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Difa\u00e2 El Jadida).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1034,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.378,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4132231404958678,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1266,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.378,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Difa\u00e2 El Jadida"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0177,
"market_prob": 0.4538,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1204,
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"teams": {
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},
"fixture_id": 1636663,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T17:59:08.010406+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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