AI correctly predicted the Aston Villa win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Aston Villa Aston Villa ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge | 32.4% | 38.6% | -6.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.5% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Aston Villa | 38.0% | 34.9% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Club Brugge's win probability at 38.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Aston Villa win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Club Brugge. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Aston Villa higher (44.2% vs model 38.0%, 6.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Aston Villa win 2–3).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Club Brugge 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Aston Villa 38.0%
- xG · Club Brugge 1.24 — Aston Villa 1.36
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Club Brugge 2.52 · Draw 3.67 · Aston Villa 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Club Brugge 38.6% · Draw 26.5% · Aston Villa 34.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Club Brugge 2.52 · Draw 3.67 · Aston Villa 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Club Brugge 38.6% · Draw 26.5% · Aston Villa 34.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aston Villa win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Aston Villa win · Club Brugge 2–3 Aston Villa
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a55e8032ee88f2a69fde70415e98afed4fd967220c0a73f0ae244f36deb53d9d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3801,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.3239,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Aston Villa",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Aston Villa"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Aston Villa",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0316,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3488,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 2.79
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.79,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Aston Villa Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.87,
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"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 2.8,
"prob_edge": 2.2,
"value_pct": 6.1,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Club Brugge or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Club Brugge or Aston Villa",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Aston Villa",
"prob": 67.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Club Brugge or Aston Villa",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Aston Villa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.6,
"implied_prob": 27.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.67
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Aston Villa",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.88,
"draw": 26.51,
"home": 38.61
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 16:44:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 16:14:20",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Club Brugge",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.61,
"gap_pp": -6.24,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.51,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"closing": 2.33,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.075,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.4,
"market_prob": 0.1351,
"market_prob_pct": 13.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0144,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4304,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5498
},
"p_final": 0.4448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1448,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.017,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.017,
"implied_prob": 0.4304,
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"p_final": 0.4448
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.1,
"text": "-18.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2069,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.7,
"text": "+20.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2069,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10336.21,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0113,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.3893,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.3893,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4007
},
"p_final": 0.4007,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0944,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0384,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2339,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.6107,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5951
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1568,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.14,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10126.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0108,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.1,
"text": "+1.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3488,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0108,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.1,
"text": "+1.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.061,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Aston Villa",
"sort_key": 5208.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"alert_team": "Aston Villa",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.22,
"hero_label": "Club Brugge",
"market_prob_pct": 34.9,
"market_team": "Club Brugge",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Aston Villa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2069,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2069,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Aston Villa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Aston Villa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Aston Villa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3488,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.061,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "13/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9285714285714286,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.3,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.22,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"steam_team": "Aston Villa",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2069,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2069,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Aston Villa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Aston Villa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Aston Villa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3488,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.061,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Brugge 1.24 xG vs Aston Villa 1.36 \u2192 Aston Villa 38.0%",
"Market: Club Brugge ~34.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Aston Villa odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Aston Villa, but the market has moved away from Aston Villa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.22,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Club Brugge",
"market_prob": 38.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.08,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.13,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob": 34.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.13,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.83,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.83,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Club Brugge",
"market_prob_pct": 38.61,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Aston Villa"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Club Brugge\u0027s win probability at 38.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Aston Villa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Brugge 1.24 xG vs Aston Villa 1.36 \u2192 Aston Villa 38.0%",
"Market: Club Brugge ~34.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Aston Villa odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Aston Villa, but the market has moved away from Aston Villa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.22,
"hero_label": "Club Brugge",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Aston Villa odds lengthened \u2191 +12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Aston Villa has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Club Brugge. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Aston Villa \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Club Brugge. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Aston Villa has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Aston Villa \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Club Brugge above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Aston Villa has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/14) supports the current market view on Aston Villa."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Club Brugge",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Club Brugge higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.22,
"edge_pp": -6.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Club Brugge",
"market_prob_pct": 38.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.08,
"edge_pp": 3.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.51,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.13,
"edge_pp": 3.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 34.88,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Aston Villa \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Club Brugge (34.9%).",
"Aston Villa odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.5%, 13/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Aston Villa, Market \u2192 Club Brugge, while Aston Villa odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.68,
"closing_odds": 2.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.68,
"entry_odds": 2.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Aston Villa (12.5%, 13/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.79",
"2.59",
"2.40"
],
"display": "2.79 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 28m",
"pick_team": "Aston Villa",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
2.79,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 13/14 sportsbooks on Aston Villa",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Aston Villa",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from Aston Villa while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Aston Villa",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Aston Villa",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Aston Villa",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "aston-villa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Aston Villa",
"away_team_id": 66,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/66.webp",
"away_team_name": "Aston Villa",
"away_team_public_id": "2OA8mIluTqIdtx",
"away_team_slug": "aston-villa",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1635643,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Belgium",
"home_team_display_name": "Club Brugge",
"home_team_id": 569,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/569.webp",
"home_team_name": "Club Brugge",
"home_team_public_id": "3YgklGXfe15Gye",
"home_team_slug": "club-brugge-kv",
"ht.home_team_slug": "club-brugge-kv",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Champions League",
"league_id": 2,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/2.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Champions League",
"league_public_id": "3xbgzqzSwmFyoE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 16:45:00",
"public_id": "3iL9WCLY6nQOj7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Brugge",
"venue_name": "Jan Breydel Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4287,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": 0.0108,
"implied_prob": 0.3488,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3488,
"draw": 0.2651,
"home": 0.3861
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3623
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2861,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": 0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.2651,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3488,
"draw": 0.2651,
"home": 0.3861
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2739
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4079,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.3861,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3488,
"draw": 0.2651,
"home": 0.3861
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3607
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": 0.0611,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": 0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": -0.0731,
"ev": -0.1842,
"implied_prob": 0.3968,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1701,
"alpha_yes": 0.2339,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0683,
"edge_yes": -0.0683,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0384,
"ev_yes": -0.1568,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0895,
"implied_no": 0.3877,
"implied_yes": 0.6123,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.3893,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4007
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2339,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.6107,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5951
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4007,
"p_final_yes": 0.5951,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2257,
"alpha_under": 0.1642,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.33,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.21,
"edge_over": -0.0913,
"edge_under": 0.0913,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0818,
"ev_under": 0.2069,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.017,
"implied_over": 0.5733,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5696,
"implied_under": 0.4267,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4304,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2257,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5498
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.017,
"implied_prob": 0.4304,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4448
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5498,
"p_final_under": 0.4448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2069,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2069,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2069,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2069,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2069,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Aston Villa at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Aston Villa as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Aston Villa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Aston Villa, but the model still strongly favours Aston Villa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3488,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.061,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": 0.0108,
"implied_prob": 0.3488,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Aston Villa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.3893,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1701,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.3893,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4007
},
"p_final": 0.4007,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0384,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2339,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.6107,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5951
}
},
"edge": 0.0683,
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3877,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0144,
"market_prob": 0.4304,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2257,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5498
},
"p_final": 0.4448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.017,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.017,
"implied_prob": 0.4304,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4448
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0913,
"ev": 0.2069,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635643,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2069,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3877,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3877,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Aston Villa",
"home": "Club Brugge"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.075022,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2069,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3488,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.061,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635643,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T16:44:17.324816+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Club Brugge & Aston Villa!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
UEFA Champions League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | LOSC Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | LASK Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | LOSC Lille | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Club Brugge | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 20 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 21 | AS Roma | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Inter Milan | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Viking | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 | LASK Linz | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | +1.7 | 3 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | +1.5 | 3 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | +1.1 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 6 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | +0.7 | 3 |
| 8 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | +0.6 | 3 |
| 9 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 10 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 0 |
| 11 | LOSC Lille | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 12 | LASK Linz | 1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 13 | Inter Milan | 1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | -1.1 | 0 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 1 | 1.3 | 2.8 | -1.5 | 0 |
| 15 | Club Brugge | 1 | 1.5 | 3.2 | -1.7 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Porto | 1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 17 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 18 | Bayern München | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 19 | Barcelona | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Como | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 22 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 23 | RC Lens | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 24 | Arsenal | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 26 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 27 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 28 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 29 | Slavia Praha | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 | Napoli | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 31 | Viking | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
