The model missed the final outcome (Aston Villa win 1–3).
The model had projected Coventry City at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Coventry City Aston Villa ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 37.5% | 30.7% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.2% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Aston Villa | 32.9% | 44.1% | -11.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Aston Villa's win probability at 44.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Aston Villa win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Aston Villa than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Coventry City by 11.3 percentage points (48.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Coventry City 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Aston Villa 32.9%
- xG · Coventry City 1.35 — Aston Villa 1.25
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Coventry City 3.13 · Draw 3.82 · Aston Villa 2.18
- Implied 1X2 · Coventry City 30.7% · Draw 25.2% · Aston Villa 44.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Coventry City 3.13 · Draw 3.82 · Aston Villa 2.18
- Implied 1X2 · Coventry City 30.7% · Draw 25.2% · Aston Villa 44.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aston Villa win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
15/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.18
AI Fair Odds
1.93
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Aston Villa win · Coventry City 1–3 Aston Villa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 51.8%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.04,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"home_win_prob": 0.3754,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0685,
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"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
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"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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"prob": 8.5
},
{
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"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Coventry City or Draw",
"prob": 67.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Coventry City or Aston Villa",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Coventry City or Aston Villa",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Coventry City"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 4.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 17.7,
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"label": "Home",
"market": "Coventry City Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.11,
"draw": 25.17,
"home": 30.72
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 19:01:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 18:31:08",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Coventry City",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.05,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0182,
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"over": {
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"edge": -0.0251,
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"implied_prob": 0.599,
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"p_final": 0.5739
},
"p_final": 0.4192,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2225,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0106,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.2,
"text": "-13.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2691,
"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2691,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10392.19,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"edge": 0.013,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3769,
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"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.033,
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},
"p_final": 0.3899,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"ev": -0.0922,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10176.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0192,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0192,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Coventry City",
"sort_key": 5215.36,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"alert_team": "Coventry City",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.26,
"hero_label": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 30.7,
"market_team": "Aston Villa",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Coventry City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Coventry City at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Coventry City as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Coventry City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0192,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4166666666666667,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.26,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"steam_team": "Coventry City",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Coventry City at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Coventry City as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Coventry City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0192,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Coventry City 1.35 xG vs Aston Villa 1.25 \u2192 Coventry City 37.5%",
"Market: Aston Villa ~30.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Coventry City odds \u2191 +14.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Coventry City, but the market has moved away from Coventry City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.82,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Coventry City",
"market_prob": 30.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.26,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob": 44.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.48,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.48,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.07,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.07,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 44.11,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Coventry City"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Aston Villa\u0027s win probability at 44.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Coventry City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Coventry City 1.35 xG vs Aston Villa 1.25 \u2192 Coventry City 37.5%",
"Market: Aston Villa ~30.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Coventry City odds \u2191 +14.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Coventry City, but the market has moved away from Coventry City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.26,
"hero_label": "Aston Villa",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Coventry City odds lengthened \u2191 +14.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Coventry City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Aston Villa than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Coventry City \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Aston Villa than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Coventry City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Coventry City \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Aston Villa more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Coventry City has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Aston Villa",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Aston Villa higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.82,
"edge_pp": 6.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Coventry City",
"market_prob_pct": 30.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.44,
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.17,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.26,
"edge_pp": -11.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 44.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Coventry City \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Aston Villa (30.7%).",
"However, Coventry City has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.6%, 5/12) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Coventry City, Market \u2192 Aston Villa, while Coventry City odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.87,
"closing_odds": 2.18,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.87,
"entry_odds": 2.18,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 41m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Coventry City (14.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.09",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.77 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 41m",
"pick_team": "Coventry City",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
3.13,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,7.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/12 sportsbooks on Coventry City",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Coventry City",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved away from Coventry City while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Coventry City",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Coventry City",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "Coventry City",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "aston-villa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Aston Villa",
"away_team_id": 66,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/66.webp",
"away_team_name": "Aston Villa",
"away_team_public_id": "2OA8mIluTqIdtx",
"away_team_slug": "aston-villa",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1635557,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Coventry City",
"home_team_id": 1346,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1346.webp",
"home_team_name": "Coventry City",
"home_team_public_id": "2gTWKXxQ6pHNJf",
"home_team_slug": "coventry",
"ht.home_team_slug": "coventry",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "C\u00fap Li\u00ean \u0111o\u00e0n Anh",
"league_id": 48,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/48.webp",
"league_name": "C\u00fap Li\u00ean \u0111o\u00e0n Anh",
"league_public_id": "47VEbILi7ey6ON",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 19:00:00",
"public_id": "441CuRLniiBYrf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Coventry City",
"venue_name": "Coventry City Building Society Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3741,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.042,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4411,
"draw": 0.2517,
"home": 0.3072
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.399
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2802,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": 0.0086,
"implied_prob": 0.2517,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4411,
"draw": 0.2517,
"home": 0.3072
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.264
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2692,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": 0.0192,
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4411,
"draw": 0.2517,
"home": 0.3072
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3256
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.13,
"ev": -0.2834,
"implied_prob": 0.4587,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.1293,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": 0.0562,
"ev": 0.1758,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1669,
"alpha_yes": 0.2294,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0707,
"edge_yes": -0.0707,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.033,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0922,
"implied_no": 0.3843,
"implied_yes": 0.6157,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3899
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.0922,
"implied_prob": 0.6231,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6052
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.3899,
"p_final_yes": 0.6052,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2143,
"alpha_under": 0.1558,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.36,
"edge_over": -0.1048,
"edge_under": 0.1048,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0932,
"ev_under": 0.2691,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0106,
"implied_over": 0.5868,
"implied_over_mf": 0.599,
"implied_under": 0.4132,
"implied_under_mf": 0.401,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2143,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.0932,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5739
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0106,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4192
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5739,
"p_final_under": 0.4192,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Coventry City at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Coventry City as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Coventry City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0192,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": 0.0192,
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Coventry City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.3769,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3899
},
"p_final": 0.3899,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.033,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.0922,
"implied_prob": 0.6231,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6052
}
},
"edge": 0.0707,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3843,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0182,
"market_prob": 0.401,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2143,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.0932,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5739
},
"p_final": 0.4192,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0106,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0106,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4192
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1048,
"ev": 0.2691,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635557,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2691,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3843,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3843,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Aston Villa",
"home": "Coventry City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.097576,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2691,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0192,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635557,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T19:01:05.917956+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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