AI correctly predicted the Akron II win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Akron II Akron II ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron II | 38.0% | 45.5% | -7.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.5% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Dinamo Barnaul | 32.4% | 28.0% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Akron II's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Akron II win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Akron II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Akron II higher (45.5% vs model 38.0%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Akron II win 2–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Akron II 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Dinamo Barnaul 32.4%
- xG · Akron II 1.36 — Dinamo Barnaul 1.24
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 09:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Akron II 1.96 · Draw 3.36 · Dinamo Barnaul 3.18
- Implied 1X2 · Akron II 45.5% · Draw 26.5% · Dinamo Barnaul 28.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Akron II 1.96 · Draw 3.36 · Dinamo Barnaul 3.18
- Implied 1X2 · Akron II 45.5% · Draw 26.5% · Dinamo Barnaul 28.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Akron II win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.96
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Akron II win · Akron II 2–0 Dinamo Barnaul
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "bce231de79661bc7f13b091c47348acc4e3d691a01fa038e503bbe042ae51fd2",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Akron II or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Akron II"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Akron II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0743,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4546,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.96
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.96,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"display_market": "Akron II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.2,
"market_odds": 1.96,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 12.2,
"prob_edge": -13.0,
"value_pct": -25.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Akron II or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Akron II or Dinamo Barnaul",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Dinamo Barnaul",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Akron II or Dinamo Barnaul",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.4,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Akron II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"edge": 3.0,
"implied_prob": 31.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Dinamo Barnaul Win",
"model_prob": 32.4,
"odds": 3.18
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.02,
"draw": 26.52,
"home": 45.46
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 10:02:40",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 09:32:49",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Akron II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.46,
"gap_pp": -7.43,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.52,
"gap_pp": 3.08,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.02,
"gap_pp": 4.35,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.58,
"gap_pp": -11.38,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.42,
"gap_pp": 11.38,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.92,
"gap_pp": -7.52,
"kind": "btts_y",
"model_pct": 54.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.08,
"gap_pp": 7.52,
"kind": "btts_n",
"model_pct": 45.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.96,
"early": 1.96,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.46,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.36,
"early": 3.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.52,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.18,
"early": 3.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.02,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.58,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.42,
"kind": "ou_u"
},
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.92,
"kind": "btts_y"
},
{
"closing": 2.39,
"early": 2.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.08,
"kind": "btts_n"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.3,
"ev": 0.1125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.9,
"market_prob": 0.1124,
"market_prob_pct": 11.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0114,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4099,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.5901,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5744
},
"p_final": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1784,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0416,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0416,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.181,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.1,
"text": "+18.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.181,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10312.9,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1113,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0086,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.3784,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1113,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.387
},
"p_final": 0.387,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1012,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0653,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1037,
"implied_prob": 0.6216,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6097
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1126,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.3,
"text": "+11.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2003,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.0,
"text": "-20.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1126,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10101.34,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1866,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0702,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.0,
"text": "-7.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Akron II",
"sort_key": 1782.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/2",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/2 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"alert_team": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.45,
"hero_label": "Akron II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.5,
"market_team": "Akron II",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Akron II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akron II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akron II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.181,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Akron II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Akron II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Akron II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akron II).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/2",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.45,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"steam_team": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akron II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akron II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akron II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.181,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Akron II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Akron II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Akron II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akron II).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Akron II 1.36 xG vs Dinamo Barnaul 1.24 \u2192 Akron II 38.0%",
"Market: Akron II ~45.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Dinamo Barnaul odds \u2191 +5.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Akron II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.45,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Akron II",
"market_prob": 45.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.07,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.37,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"market_prob": 28.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.81,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.81,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.76,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.76,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Akron II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.46,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Dinamo Barnaul"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Akron II\u0027s win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Akron II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Akron II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Akron II 1.36 xG vs Dinamo Barnaul 1.24 \u2192 Akron II 38.0%",
"Market: Akron II ~45.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Dinamo Barnaul odds \u2191 +5.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Akron II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.45,
"hero_label": "Akron II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Dinamo Barnaul odds lengthened \u2191 +5.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Dinamo Barnaul has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Akron II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Akron II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Dinamo Barnaul has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Akron II above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Dinamo Barnaul has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Akron II",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Akron II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.45,
"edge_pp": -7.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Akron II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.07,
"edge_pp": 3.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.37,
"edge_pp": 4.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"market_prob_pct": 28.02,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Akron II (45.5%).",
"Dinamo Barnaul odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.2%, 1/2) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Akron II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.02,
"closing_odds": 1.96,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.02,
"entry_odds": 1.96,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
}
],
"books_total": 2,
"breadth_display": "1/2",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.22,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market fading Dinamo Barnaul (5.2%) \u2014 line drifting longer vs. open (1/2).",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.22",
"3.14",
"3.06"
],
"display": "3.22 \u2192 3.06 \u2192 3.22",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 53h 30m",
"pick_team": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.22"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.06"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.22"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.06,
3.18,
3.22
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,4.5 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.06"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.06"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.22"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.06,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Illiquid",
"phase_tip": "Few bookmakers quoting \u2014 moves may not reflect broad market.",
"pick_team": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.22,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"open_odds": 3.06,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_fading",
"signal_label": "Weakening",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/2",
"current_odds": 3.22,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"open_odds": 3.06,
"pick_team": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_team_name": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "dinamo-barnaul",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"away_team_id": 6794,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6794.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"away_team_public_id": "5Js3reqgYAU1wh",
"away_team_slug": "dinamo-barnaul",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1634029,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "Akron II",
"home_team_id": 21535,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/21535.webp",
"home_team_name": "Akron II",
"home_team_public_id": "2JJ0wGzMAcrpN2",
"home_team_slug": "akron-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "akron-ii",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Hai Nga - Nh\u00f3m 4",
"league_id": 653,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/653.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Hai Nga - Nh\u00f3m 4",
"league_public_id": "1535d2xkmkOgyO",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 10:00:00",
"public_id": "0OBIiJbyXneDPf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2804,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.2802,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2802,
"draw": 0.2652,
"home": 0.4546
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2924
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2862,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0794,
"implied_prob": 0.2652,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2802,
"draw": 0.2652,
"home": 0.4546
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.274
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5332,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0396,
"ev": -0.1866,
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2802,
"draw": 0.2652,
"home": 0.4546
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.415
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": 0.0294,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": -0.0017,
"ev": -0.0056,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.1299,
"ev": -0.2545,
"implied_prob": 0.5102,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1113,
"alpha_yes": 0.1531,
"best_no_odd": 2.44,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0776,
"edge_yes": -0.0776,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1126,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0653,
"ev_yes": -0.2003,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1037,
"implied_no": 0.3784,
"implied_yes": 0.6216,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1113,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.387
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1037,
"implied_prob": 0.6216,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6097
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.387,
"p_final_yes": 0.6097,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1451,
"alpha_under": 0.1056,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.28,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.275,
"edge_over": -0.1081,
"edge_under": 0.1081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0924,
"ev_under": 0.181,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0416,
"implied_over": 0.5901,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5901,
"implied_under": 0.4099,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4099,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.5901,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5744
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0416,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4213
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5744,
"p_final_under": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.181,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.181,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akron II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.181,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Akron II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Akron II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Akron II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akron II).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0396,
"ev": -0.1866,
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Akron II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1113,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0086,
"market_prob": 0.3784,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1113,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.387
},
"p_final": 0.387,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0653,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1037,
"implied_prob": 0.6216,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6097
}
},
"edge": 0.0776,
"ev": 0.1126,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0114,
"market_prob": 0.4099,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1451,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.5901,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5744
},
"p_final": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0416,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1056,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0416,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1081,
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1634029,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.181,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1126,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1126,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dinamo Barnaul",
"home": "Akron II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.057755,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2546,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1634029,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T10:02:42.428927+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Akron II & Dinamo Barnaul!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Hai Nga - Nhóm 4 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 56 |
| 2 | KDV | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | Akron II | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 7 | Orenburg II | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 26 |
| 8 | Izhevsk | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 |
| 9 | Ural II | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 20 |
| 11 | Nosta | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk II | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 22 | 57 | 16 | +41 | 56 |
| 2 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 22 | 51 | 33 | +18 | 43 |
| 3 | Akron II | 22 | 46 | 34 | +12 | 32 |
| 4 | KDV | 22 | 40 | 20 | +20 | 53 |
| 5 | Ural II | 22 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 22 |
| 6 | Orenburg II | 22 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 26 |
| 7 | Dinamo Barnaul | 22 | 31 | 50 | -19 | 26 |
| 8 | Izhevsk | 22 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 23 |
| 9 | Krylya Sovetov II | 22 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 22 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 | Nosta | 22 | 20 | 48 | -28 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk II | 22 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 17 |
