AI correctly predicted the Mes Rafsanjan win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mes Rafsanjan | 40.4% | 34.0% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 31.9% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Be'sat Kermanshah | 30.1% | 34.0% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Mes Rafsanjan's win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.0%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Mes Rafsanjan win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mes Rafsanjan.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mes Rafsanjan more conservatively (34.0% vs model 40.4%, 6.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mes Rafsanjan win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mes Rafsanjan 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Be'sat Kermanshah 30.1%
- xG · Mes Rafsanjan 1.41 — Be'sat Kermanshah 1.19
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mes Rafsanjan 2.63 · Draw 2.76 · Be'sat Kermanshah 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Mes Rafsanjan 33.9% · Draw 32.3% · Be'sat Kermanshah 33.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mes Rafsanjan 2.62 · Draw 2.79 · Be'sat Kermanshah 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Mes Rafsanjan 34.0% · Draw 31.9% · Be'sat Kermanshah 34.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mes Rafsanjan win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
68/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.62
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Mes Rafsanjan win · Mes Rafsanjan 1–0 Be'sat Kermanshah
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0398,
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"sort_key": 1790.05,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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],
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"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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"alignment": {
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan."
},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4074,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4074,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mes Rafsanjan at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mes Rafsanjan as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0398,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "0/3",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.4,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -1.1%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4074,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4074,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mes Rafsanjan at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mes Rafsanjan as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0398,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mes Rafsanjan 1.41 xG vs Be\u0027sat Kermanshah 1.19 \u2192 Mes Rafsanjan 40.4%",
"Market: Mes Rafsanjan ~34.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -1.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Mes Rafsanjan, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.4,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"market_prob": 34.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.51,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.88,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"market_prob": 34.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.65,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.65,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.59,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.59,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"market_prob_pct": 34.02,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Mes Rafsanjan\u0027s win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 34.0%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mes Rafsanjan 1.41 xG vs Be\u0027sat Kermanshah 1.19 \u2192 Mes Rafsanjan 40.4%",
"Market: Mes Rafsanjan ~34.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -1.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Mes Rafsanjan, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.4,
"hero_label": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -1.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 1.1%. Confirmation remains limited (0/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mes Rafsanjan.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mes Rafsanjan.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 1.1%. Confirmation remains limited (0/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Mes Rafsanjan.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 1.1%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (0/3), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.4,
"lead": "The model rates Mes Rafsanjan considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.4,
"edge_pp": 6.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"market_prob_pct": 34.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.51,
"edge_pp": -2.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.88,
"edge_pp": -3.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"market_prob_pct": 34.02,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mes Rafsanjan (34.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mes Rafsanjan, Market \u2192 Mes Rafsanjan, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.17,
"closing_odds": 2.62,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.17,
"entry_odds": 2.62,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/3",
"current_odds": 2.76,
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.1%",
"open_odds": 2.79,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 1,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "be-sat-kermanshah",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"away_team_id": 20802,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20802.webp",
"away_team_name": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"away_team_public_id": "5j6SJEnGjN2A2N",
"away_team_slug": "be-sat-kermanshah",
"country_code": "IR",
"country_display_name": "Iran",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ir.svg",
"country_id": 75,
"country_name": "Iran",
"fixture_id": 1632813,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Iran",
"home_team_display_name": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"home_team_id": 2706,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2706.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"home_team_public_id": "5FHmv1rGR0C369",
"home_team_slug": "mes-rafsanjan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mes-rafsanjan",
"league_country": "Iran",
"league_country_display": "Iran",
"league_display_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_id": 291,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/291.webp",
"league_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_public_id": "2xgV5HSTOHOOvT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 13:30:00",
"public_id": "4CqP7xk5zojSHD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tafresh",
"venue_name": "Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4236,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1519,
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3402,
"draw": 0.3195,
"home": 0.3402
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1393,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3402,
"draw": 0.3195,
"home": 0.3402
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.3085
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4064,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": -0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3402,
"draw": 0.3195,
"home": 0.3402
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.3665
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": -0.0805,
"ev": -0.211,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": -0.0644,
"ev": -0.1796,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0231,
"ev": 0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1924,
"alpha_yes": 0.14,
"best_no_odd": 1.52,
"best_yes_odd": 2.31,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1459,
"edge_yes": 0.1459,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3038,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1334,
"ev_yes": 0.252,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0426,
"implied_no": 0.6039,
"implied_yes": 0.3961,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1924,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0285,
"ev": -0.1334,
"implied_prob": 0.6063,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5778
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.14,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4145
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5778,
"p_final_yes": 0.4145,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1335,
"alpha_under": 0.1835,
"best_over_odd": 2.92,
"best_under_odd": 1.34,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.92,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.31,
"edge_over": 0.1665,
"edge_under": -0.1665,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4074,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0285,
"ev_under": -0.3059,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1371,
"implied_over": 0.3155,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3097,
"implied_under": 0.6845,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6903,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1335,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3327
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1835,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.0316,
"ev": -0.1371,
"implied_prob": 0.6903,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6587
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3327,
"p_final_under": 0.6587,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4074,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4074,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4074,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4074,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4074,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mes Rafsanjan at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mes Rafsanjan as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +40.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Mes Rafsanjan.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0398,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": -0.0398,
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"max_ev_side": "home",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mes Rafsanjan"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.14,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.3937,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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"implied_prob": 0.6063,
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"p_final": 0.5778
},
"p_final": 0.4145,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0426,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
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}
},
"edge": 0.1459,
"ev": 0.252,
"implied_prob": 0.3961,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1335,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.023,
"market_prob": 0.3097,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
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},
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"under": {
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"edge": -0.0316,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1632813,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4074,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2941,
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},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"home": "Mes Rafsanjan"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4074,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0398,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38167938931297707,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632813,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T13:29:07.701743+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Mes Rafsanjan & Be'sat Kermanshah!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Azadegan League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Ario Eslamshahr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Fard Alborz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Niroye Zamini | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Novin Ahvaz | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 5 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Ario Eslamshahr | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Fard Alborz | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Mes Kerman | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Mes Soongoun | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Naft Gachsaran | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
