The model missed the final outcome (Be'sat Kermanshah win 0–3).
The model had projected Havadar at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Havadar Be'sat Kermanshah ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havadar | 42.4% | 35.8% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 32.2% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Be'sat Kermanshah | 28.4% | 32.0% | -3.7 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Havadar's win probability at 42.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.8%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Be'sat Kermanshah win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Havadar.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Havadar; match finished Be'sat Kermanshah
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Havadar by 6.6 percentage points (35.8% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Havadar 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Be'sat Kermanshah 28.4%
- xG · Havadar 1.45 — Be'sat Kermanshah 1.15
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Havadar 2.49 · Draw 2.77 · Be'sat Kermanshah 2.78
- Implied 1X2 · Havadar 35.8% · Draw 32.2% · Be'sat Kermanshah 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Havadar 2.49 · Draw 2.77 · Be'sat Kermanshah 2.78
- Implied 1X2 · Havadar 35.8% · Draw 32.2% · Be'sat Kermanshah 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Be'sat Kermanshah win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
67/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.49
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Be'sat Kermanshah win · Havadar 0–3 Be'sat Kermanshah
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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"ev": -0.0425,
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},
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"sort_key": 1789.375,
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},
{
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"show": true,
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"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.34,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.34,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Havadar at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Havadar as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Havadar",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0425,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3578,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0548,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.59,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.45,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.45 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Havadar",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.34,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.34,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Havadar at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Havadar as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Havadar",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0425,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3578,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0548,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havadar 1.45 xG vs Be\u0027sat Kermanshah 1.15 \u2192 Havadar 42.4%",
"Market: Havadar ~35.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Havadar +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Havadar with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Havadar",
"market_prob": 35.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.91,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.68,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"market_prob": 32.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.98,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.98,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.57,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.57,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Havadar",
"market_prob_pct": 35.78,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Havadar"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Havadar\u0027s win probability at 42.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 35.8%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Havadar",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.6,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Havadar \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havadar 1.45 xG vs Be\u0027sat Kermanshah 1.15 \u2192 Havadar 42.4%",
"Market: Havadar ~35.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Havadar +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Havadar with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.59,
"hero_label": "Havadar",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Havadar.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Havadar.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Havadar.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Havadar."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Havadar.",
"Recent line movement on Havadar (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Havadar."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Havadar",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.6,
"lead": "The model rates Havadar considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.59,
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Havadar",
"market_prob_pct": 35.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.91,
"edge_pp": -2.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.17,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.68,
"edge_pp": -3.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"market_prob_pct": 32.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Havadar.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Havadar (35.8%).",
"Havadar \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.16,
"closing_odds": 2.49,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.16,
"entry_odds": 2.49,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 2.49,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.49,
"pick_team": "Havadar",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Havadar",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "be-sat-kermanshah",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"away_team_id": 20802,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20802.webp",
"away_team_name": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"away_team_public_id": "5j6SJEnGjN2A2N",
"away_team_slug": "be-sat-kermanshah",
"country_code": "IR",
"country_display_name": "Iran",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ir.svg",
"country_id": 75,
"country_name": "Iran",
"fixture_id": 1632802,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Iran",
"home_team_display_name": "Havadar",
"home_team_id": 15541,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15541.webp",
"home_team_name": "Havadar",
"home_team_public_id": "0az2QpZcjO2m5s",
"home_team_slug": "havadar",
"ht.home_team_slug": "havadar",
"league_country": "Iran",
"league_country_display": "Iran",
"league_display_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_id": 291,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/291.webp",
"league_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_public_id": "2xgV5HSTOHOOvT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 15:00:00",
"public_id": "3yhmWsTJeKBVNe",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tehran",
"venue_name": "Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4254,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1521,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3205,
"draw": 0.3217,
"home": 0.3578
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.305
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4302,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1439,
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3205,
"draw": 0.3217,
"home": 0.3578
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.309
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4056,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.3578,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3205,
"draw": 0.3217,
"home": 0.3578
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.3845
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": -0.0757,
"ev": -0.2104,
"implied_prob": 0.3597,
"model_prob": 0.284
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": -0.0687,
"ev": -0.1902,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": 0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.4236
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1992,
"alpha_yes": 0.1449,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.24,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1257,
"edge_yes": 0.1257,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2762,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1241,
"ev_yes": 0.2074,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0417,
"implied_no": 0.5867,
"implied_yes": 0.4133,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.591,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5651
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0417,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4278
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5651,
"p_final_yes": 0.4278,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1377,
"alpha_under": 0.1893,
"best_over_odd": 2.78,
"best_under_odd": 1.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.78,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.34,
"edge_over": 0.1498,
"edge_under": -0.1498,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.34,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0358,
"ev_under": -0.2852,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1356,
"implied_over": 0.3322,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3252,
"implied_under": 0.6678,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6748,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3468
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6748,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6451
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3468,
"p_final_under": 0.6451,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.34,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.34,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.34,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.34,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.34,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Havadar at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Havadar as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Havadar",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0425,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3578,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0548,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.3578,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Havadar"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.409,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.591,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5651
},
"p_final": 0.4278,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0417,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0417,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4278
}
},
"edge": 0.1257,
"ev": 0.2074,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0216,
"market_prob": 0.3252,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1377,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3468
},
"p_final": 0.3468,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0358,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.6748,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6451
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1498,
"ev": 0.34,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1632802,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.34,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.4236
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2074,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2074,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Be\u0027sat Kermanshah",
"home": "Havadar"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.114716,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.34,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0425,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3578,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0548,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632802,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T14:59:12.946917+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Havadar & Be'sat Kermanshah!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Azadegan League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Ario Eslamshahr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Fard Alborz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Niroye Zamini | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Novin Ahvaz | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 5 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Ario Eslamshahr | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Fard Alborz | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Mes Kerman | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Mes Soongoun | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Naft Gachsaran | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
